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Every NCAA Tournament, the loudest chirping about first-round upsets usually involves the 5 vs. 12 game. And indeed, there have been 57 upsets by the No. 12 seed since the Dance expanded to 64 teams in 1984. But there have been 62 such upsets by No. 11 seeds, a percentage of 38.85%. At least one No. 11 seed has reached the second round every tournament since 2005 -- a No. 11 is the lowest-ever seed to reach a Final Four.

Dating to 2014, No. 11 seeds are 23-21 in this matchup. In 2021, No. 11 UCLA beat No. 11 Michigan State in overtime in the First Four and reached the Final Four. In 2022, three No. 11 seeds advanced out of the first round and it happened again in 2024 when Duquesne, NC State and Oregon all won. The Wolfpack went all the way to the Final Four. Last year, the lone No. 11 to win was Drake over Missouri. In 1989, all four No. 11 seeds prevailed.  

The biggest margin of victory for a No. 11 over a No. 6 was Pepperdine beating Indiana 77-57 in 2000, which was Bobby Knight's final game as IU's head coach. 

11 vs. 6 upset rankings

These are ordered from least likely to most likely.

4. Tennessee over Miami of Ohio/SMU (TBD)

Of course, Miami of Ohio of the Mid-American Conference ran the regular-season table only to be upset in the first round of the conference tournament by UMass. The RedHawks got the final at-large bid into the Dance, squeezing out Oklahoma of the Big 12 -- as they should have. Saint Louis of the Atlantic 10 also got in despite not winning its conference tournament, marking the first season since 2011-12 where multiple teams received at-large bids despite not playing an AP-ranked team. 

Eight RedHawks wins this season have come by three or fewer points, tied for the most such wins in Division I. I expect SMU of the ACC to beat Miami in Wednesday's First Four matchup in Dayton but not cover the spread. The Mustangs' starters are averaging a combined 70.1 points per game in 2025-26, tops in the ACC and second nationally. But obviously it will be a quick turnaround for either winner to play Friday afternoon in Philadelphia against the Vols, who are 6-1 in the first round under Rick Barnes.

UT looks to become only the fourth SEC school in history (Alabama can do it too) to reach four straight Elite Eights after 1993-96 Arkansas, 1995-99 Kentucky and 2011-14 Florida. I wouldn't be as high on Tennessee if freshman guard Nate Ament (17.5  PPG, 6.6 RPG) had not returned from about a two-week injury absence for the SEC Tournament. He is is one of six freshmen in D-I to have at least 500 points and 200 rebounds this season. The Vols again have the No. 1 scoring defense (69.4 PPG) in the SEC.

3. South Florida over Louisville (-5.5)

The big question surrounding this game is regarding Cardinals star freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr., an expected top-10 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. Brown has been dealing with a lower back injury for a large part of the season and has missed several games overall, last playing on Feb. 28. Coach Pat Kelsey has only said that "we'll see how the next couple of days of practice go" in terms of Brown's status. If he doesn't go, I'd probably move USF up to No. 2 on this list. Brown is averaging 18.2 points and 4.7 assists and has had nine games with at least 20 points, the most by a freshman in Louisville history. 

First-year coach Bryan Hodgson has worked wonders at USF, which is on an 11-game winning streak, coming from Arkansas State and bringing star Izaiyah Nelson with him to Tampa. Nelson has posted 18 double-doubles this season, leading the American in rebounds per game (9.6). The Bulls can't shoot much but play fast and rank in the top 10 in the country in total rebounds and offensive rebounding rate.

2. Texas/NC State over BYU (TBD)

At least one First Four participant has advanced to the second round in 12 of 14 NCAA Tournaments since it debuted, and I believe the winner of Texas-NC State -- my pick was the Horns -- has the best chance of any First Four team this year of winning in Round 1. This is really more a fade of BYU, which was a legit national title contender behind superstar freshman AJ Dybantsa, expected to be the top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, and guard Richie Saunders. 

Dybantsa (25.3 PPG) is on pace to be the third freshman ever to lead Division I in scoring after Jason Conley and Trae Young. But Saunders (18.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG) was lost to a season-ending knee injury in mid-February and the Cougars really haven't been the same since. BYU's 32 NCAA Tournament appearances (entering 2026) are the most all-time by a team that has never reached the Final Four. That will continue. 

1. VCU over North Carolina (-2.5)

With a healthy Caleb Wilson, maybe the Tar Heels are Final Four contenders. Without the superstar freshman and likely top-five pick in the 2026 NBA Draft out for the season with a hand injury, North Carolina is not a legit threat. And who knows, I might be writing a story next week about the odds for next head coach at UNC to replace the embattled Hubert Davis. 

If his Heels go out in Round 1 a second straight year, the heat will really be on. North Carolina ranks 91st nationally in opponent rebounding percentage (29.6%), the program's worst mark since 2015-16. Rebounding is vital in March. UNC was 18-0 at home but 6-8 away/neutral sites.

Under first-year coach Phil Martelli Jr., VCU was the Atlantic 10 Tournament champion or it would have been sweating out Selection Sunday but likely would have squeezed in. Martelli can wear down the Heels with his 10-man rotation led by leading scorer Terrence Hill Jr., who comes off the bench. The Rams get to the foul line at a top-15 rate nationally. They led the A-10 and ranked seventh nationally in bench scoring (34.0 PPG ) while leading the A-10 and sitting 18th nationally in free-throw attempts at 25.5 per game.