12 vs. 5 upset rankings: Can reeling Texas Tech make it past red-hot Akron?
The No. 12 seeds went 2-2 in last year's NCAA Tournament, and here's who's most likely to pull the upsets this year
Over the past 40 years, No. 12 seeds have held a win rate of 35.6% and overall record of 57-103 in the NCAA Tournament.
This is in large part because the gap between the clubs is rarely as wide as it might appear on paper. The No. 5 seeds are usually reserved for middling big-conference programs that fell slightly short of expectations, while the No. 12 seeds are often granted to smaller-conference programs that won their conference tournaments, enter the NCAA Tournament on a massive winning streak and are beaming with confidence.
Both of these performance arcs showed up last year as No. 12 seeds went 2-2 in the opening round. McNeese State defeated No. 5 Clemson 69–67, while Colorado State defeated No. 5 Memphis 78–70. Can the No. 12 seeds in the 2026 NCAA Tournament match this success?
No. 12 vs. No. 5 seed upset rankings
We'll look at the matchups between this year's No. 12 and No. 5 seeds and rank which upsets are most likely to occur. These are ordered from least likely to most likely.
4. Northern Iowa over St. John's
Like many college basketball observers, we thought the Red Storm, who won both the Big East regular season and tournament titles, were snubbed by the selection committee with a relatively modest No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Moreover, we expect them to play with a proverbial chip on their shoulders as a result, not that this Rick Pitino-coached team was light on motivation before Selection Sunday.
Northern Iowa was once a staple of the NCAA Tournament, making four memorable appearances in a seven-year span, but this will be the Panthers' first trip to the Big Dance since 2016. They finished sixth in the Missouri Valley Conference before embarking on a conference tournament title tun to secure the automatic bid.
While we expect the Panthers to hang around for a while, the Red Storm should flex their muscle and pull away from a Northern Iowa club that is limited on the offensive end (69.9 points per game).
3. High Point over Wisconsin
The late-blooming Badgers surged down the stretch with an 8-2-mark in the rugged Big Ten, which included a solid conference tournament showing that ended with a 68-65 semifinal loss to regular-season champion Michigan, which went on to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Wisconsin boasts one of the nation's top back courts in Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, both of whom are juniors and combined to average nearly 40 points per game. A size-heavy front court is led by skilled 7-footer Noah Winter, who is putting up 13.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per contest.
The Panthers are a high-scoring (90 ppg) and experienced club that won both the Big South regular season and tournament titles. This 30-win team features nine players who log at least 16 minutes per game, but we see the massive step up in competition against the Badgers putting an end to High Point's win streak at 14.
2. McNeese over Vanderbilt
McNeese guard Larry Johnson is likely the best college basketball player with his surname since the iconic UNLV forward of the same name led the Rebels to a national title 36 years ago. The 6-4 freshman is a guard but has the physicality to draw comparisons to the all-time UNLV great. He is averaging 17.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game.
The Southland champion Cowboys are 14-1 in their last 15 and are riding a 10-game winning streak into the NCAA Tournament. The talented but erratic Commodores flashed well with a late-season run that saw them reach the SEC title game, but they could have their hands full against a McNeese club that is solid on both ends of the floor and should play with a fearless disposition.
1. Akron over Texas Tech
The Red Raiders played well in the immediate aftermath of the season-ending injury to star JT Toppin, but they struggled down the stretch with three consecutive losses, including a 75-53 loss to Iowa State in the conference tournament.
This Texas Tech club understandably has a limited ceiling minus the services of its best player, while it runs into an Akron club that enters the NCAA Tournament on a 10-game winning streak that includes the MAC Tournament title.
Akron is a deep club that features four starters averaging in double figures and eight players who log at least 11.7 minutes per game. We could envision the high-scoring Zips (88.4 ppg, No. 9 nationally), getting hot down the stretch and outlasting a limited Texas Tech club.
