13 vs. 4 upset rankings: Will Nebraska's historic season come to a crashing end?
A No. 13 seed has beaten a No. 4 seed four times this decade, and here's who's most likely to do so this year
Four No. 13 seeds have defeated their No. 4-seeded counterparts in the first round of the NCAA Tournament this decade, though none of the underdog clubs delivered a victory last season.
The last win by a No. 13 seed came in 2024, when Yale defeated Auburn by a score of 78-76. However, a No. 13 seed has at least one victory in 28 of the past 40 NCAA Tournaments, suggesting probability is on the side of the lower-seeded clubs. Will a No. 13 seed break through in the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
No. 13 vs. No. 4 seed upset rankings
We'll look at the matchups between this year's No. 13 and No. 4 seeds and rank which upsets are most likely to occur. These are ordered from least likely to most likely.
4. Cal Baptist over Kansas
The talented but erratic Jayhawks have had a successful but uneven season, with massive wins over the likes of Houston and Arizona countered by puzzling losses to teams like West Virginia and Arizona State.
One obvious factor in their inconsistency lies in the bizarre trajectory of talented freshman Darryn Peterson, a projected top-five pick in the NBA draft. He has missed a total of 11 games, with the absences attributed to a variety of medical concerns.
Even so, this team has shown it can win with or without its enigmatic star, though the Jayhawks are undoubtedly better with him on the floor. Moreover, this club has shown Final Four potential when performing at the top of its game.
Cal Baptist will see its historic season rewarded with the program's first-ever NCAA Tournament berth. While such a feat is always praise-worthy, the Lancers emerged from a weak WAC field and have some of the worst analytics of any team in the field.
3. Hawaii over Arkansas
The John Calipari-led Razorbacks have been erratic at times, but they heated up down the stretch with a 7-1 run that included a blistering surge to the SEC Tournament title with an 86-75 victory over an equally hot Vanderbilt club.
Arkansas has a dangerous postseason trajectory because of its multi-faceted offensive output. The Razorbacks are No. 10 in the country in 3-point shooting, hitting at a clip of just under 39%, while their 89.9 points per game ranks No. 6 nationally. Six players average at least 7.6 points per game and eight are logging double figures in minutes played.
Hawaii's veteran-laden club embarked on a 6-1 late-season surge that saw the Warriors capture the Big West Tournament title and the conference's automatic bid. Although they shouldn't wilt on the game's biggest stage, we also don't see the Warriors finding a path to victory against an Arkansas team that still appears to be hitting its peak.
2. Hofstra over Alabama
Although the Crimson Tide have seen a slight decline in their overall talent level from the club that reached the Final Four in 2024, their ability to weaponize pace (91.7 ppg, No. 3 nationally) and wear down opponents still makes them a contender for a deep March run.
Alabama won eight straight games down the stretch before stumbling to losses in two of their past three, including an 80-79 loss to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament in which they hit just nine of 29 from 3-point range.
Hofstra will be making its first NCAA Tournament appearance in 25 years, and current coach Speedy Claxton was a member of the 2001 club that reached the Big Dance. Even so, this club suffered a five-game losing streak during conference play against relatively meager Coastal Athletic Association competition before surging to an 11-finish that included the conference tournament title.
Although the Pride boasts a sterling defense that allows just 66.1 points per game, its modest offensive output (75.6 ppg) makes it a tough sell to pull the upset of Alabama.
1. Troy over Nebraska
The Cornhuskers hold the ignominious distinction as the only power conference program that has never won a game in the men's NCAA Tournament. They hold an all-time record of 0-8 in the NCAA Tournament, and this year's club has an excellent chance of breaking this run of futility.
The historic campaign for Nebraska includes the program reaching its highest AP ranking in program history (No. 5), along with setting benchmarks for conference victories with 15 and road wins with seven.
But following a remarkable 20-0 start, coach Fred Hoiberg's team slumped to a 6-6 mark down the stretch that included a discouraging 74-58 loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament.
The Trojans used balanced scoring and an experienced starting lineup to capture both the regular season and tournament titles in the Sun Belt under seventh-year coach Scott Cross, who led the Trojans to their second consecutive NCAA Tournament berth.
Although we'd love to see Nebraska finally earn its long-awaited breakthrough in the NCAA Tournament, a battle-tested and poised opponent such as Troy could see the Cornhuskers left with more March misery.
