2026 NCAA Tournament best and worst draws: Easiest path to Final Four, toughest matchups, strongest region
Not all draws are created equal on Selection Sunday.

Styles make fights. That's the beauty and the curse of March Madness, where the draw can make or break everything. College basketball's season is a grueling grind, but it provides numerous opportunities to learn so much about what makes these teams pulse.
It's time to put those lessons learned to the test.
Let's dive into the best and worst draws from Selection Sunday.
Toughest first weekend matchups: North Carolina
Just over 90 mins from Charlotte and even closer to the North Carolina mountains, the Tar Heels should have a partisan crowd for the Greenville Regional, but this draw is a headache.
No. 11 seed VCU is no slouch. The Rams have a stocked eight-man rotation with plenty of size and real-deal guard play. VCU has so many guards who can get two feet into the paint and get this UNC defense into rotation. Phil Martelli Jr. has a high-major roster that just plays in the A-10.
But it's what's looming after the first round that is especially terrifying. Illinois strikes all the right notes of a team that can give this iteration of UNC fits. The Illini are the No. 2 offense in the country. They have size and shooting everywhere, and they are built to hunt some of the weak points in UNC's portfolio.
The Tar Heels have ceded open 3-pointers far too often in this campaign. Illinois will trot out five-shooter lineups left and right.
UNC has struggled to guard lead guards for long stretches this year. Illinois has future lottery pick Keaton Wagler, the reigning Big Ten Freshman of the Year.
North Carolina has also been in hot water against burly forwards. Illinois has All-Big Ten Freshman Team big man David Mirkovic, who can pass, dribble, shoot and score inside or out.
Forwards vs. North Carolina in the last four games:
- Clemson's Nick Davidson: 17 points, 11 rebounds
- Duke's Cameron Boozer: 26 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists
- Clemson's RJ Godfrey: 22 points, nine rebounds
- Virginia Tech's Tobi Lawal: 16 points, five rebounds
It'll take a yeoman's effort for the Tar Heels to get out of the first weekend because the committee did them no favors with this draw.
Easiest path to Final Four: Arizona
Arizona does not have one team in its region that is outstanding on both sides of the floor.
- No. 2 seed Purdue is the No. 1 offense in the country, but while the defense has shown a bit more grit, there are still real holes here. Arizona's positional size and athleticism will be extremely obvious if this matchup presents itself.
- No. 3 seed Gonzaga is a stout defensive team with an offense that has been a bit more vulnerable without Braden Huff. Arizona would have so many bodies to throw at Zags' star big man Graham Ike.
- No. 4 seed Arkansas is a turbo offense with a superstar guard in Darius Acuff, but the Hogs have struggled to play up to competition because the front line leaves plenty to be desired, especially on the glass.
- No. 5 seed Wisconsin may prove to be the most dangerous team of all here, but the Badgers' defense is still iffy. Wisconsin doesn't get to the line much and doesn't get many second-chance points, so it'd need a Herculean shooting performance to knock off Arizona. It's possible but not probable.
You get the point. The table is set for Arizona to make it to Indianapolis.
Clear path to Sweet 16: Alabama
Alabama's issues inside and on the glass have been well documented, but the Crimson Tide should have no issues getting to the Sweet 16. No. 13 seed Hofstra is one heck of a story, but the Pride is driven by their two guards: Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead. Over 56% of Hofstra's shots are jumpers. It doesn't pressure the rim at an extremely high level. If this is a game of which backcourt is better, I'll take Alabama's over Hofstra's every single day of the week and twice on Sundays. Aden Holloway, Labaron Philon and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. can really scoot.
In the second round, Alabama will get either Texas Tech or Akron. Texas Tech has turned into a make-or-miss team from downtown without JT Toppin. It's jumper after jumper after jumper. Grant McCasland versus Nate Oats is an insanely good chess match, but Alabama just has more dudes than battered Texas Tech at this point.
A matchup with top-seeded Michigan in the Sweet 16 would be a problem, but Alabama can cross that bridge when it gets there.
Hardest Region? A loaded group of coaches lines the East Region
Here are the coaches in this region:
- Jon Scheyer, Duke: 121 career wins. Most for a Division I coach in their first four years.
- Rick Pitino, St. John's: Hall of Famer.
- Bill Self, Kansas: Hall of Famer.
- Tom Izzo, Michigan State: Hall of Famer.
- Mick Cronin, UCLA: 526 career wins
- Dan Hurley, UConn: Two-time National Champion, future Hall of Famer.
This is going to be an absolute bloodbath anyway you slice it. Whoever emerges will have E-A-R-N-E-D it.
Some extra outtakes about the East Region:
- Kansas' big guys have not played very big frequently. That won't be exposed in the first round against Cal Baptist, but softness will get you sent home in this region in a hurry. Flory Bidunga is the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, but opposing offenses have hunted freshman forward Bryson Tiller religiously. Self was so exacerbated that he benched Tiller in Kansas' Big 12 Tournament loss to Houston. A second-round date with Zuby Ejiofor, Dillon Mitchell, Bryce Hopkins and St. John's is a bit intimidating. If KU had to go up against Duke's frontcourt of Patrick Ngongba (if healthy) and Cameron Boozer, it could be a bloodbath in the paint.
- Northern Iowa is a pesky draw for No. 5 seed St. John's. UNI takes the air out of the ball, sends everyone to the defensive glass and has a lead guard in Trey Campbell who can really hoop and a big wing in Leon Bond who can handle tough defensive assignments. Northern Iowa is going to drag this game into the mud and force St. John's to execute in the halfcourt. The Johnnies much prefer to play in transition. It masks the fact that this halfcourt offense is just OK (64th percentile nationally, per Synergy).
- I'm more worried about UCLA's health than the fact that the Bruins have to travel to the East again. If Tyler Bilodeau (knee strain) and Donovan Dent (calf strain) are not 100%, UCLA could be in for it against No. 10 seed UCF. If Dent and Bilodeau are ready to go, the Bruins can certainly make some noise. UCLA had a 20-game stretch from Jan. 3 to March 13 where it was the No. 3 offense in America.
- Michigan State's gap-help scheme forces you to beat it over the top. It should dispatch North Dakota State in the first round, but Louisville or South Florida would present some issues. South Florida has two of the elite snipers in college basketball in Joseph Pinion and Wes Enis. Both of those dudes made over 100 3-pointers. Louisville has three high-volume net-shredders in Mikel Brown Jr., Ryan Conwell and Isaac McKneely. Michigan State needs to rediscover its defensive form. It's given up over 1.18 points per possession in four of the last five games heading into March Madness. Both South Florida and Louisville can flat-out score.
Quick hitters
- Virginia has had real issues defending excellent guards. Wright State's Michael Cooper can really play, and a potential date with Tennessee's Ja'Kobi Gillespie in the second round is nerve-wracking.
- Texas A&M's speed and pace may be able to play Saint Mary's gargantuan center, Andrew McKeever, off the floor. McKeever is all of 7-foot-3 and controls the glass at will.
- Brutal draws for No. 12 seeds like McNeese (who plays Vanderbilt) and High Point (who gets Wisconsin). Both of those teams try to force turnovers at will. McNeese will have a tough time turning Vanderbilt's excellent guards like Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles over. The same thing applies for High Point. Good luck forcing Nick Boyd and John Blackwell into giveaways. Every content creator on TikTok will have some stat about how frequently 12s beat 5s, but McNeese and High Point are drawing dead schematically.
- Gonzaga and BYU would be a really fun Round of 32 matchup. Gonzaga has three excellent defensive wings (Jalen Warley, Tyon Grant-Foster and Emmanuel Innocenti) who could give BYU's AJ Dybantsa a real shot.
- Santa Clara's transition defense has been a hot spot often. That's concerning against a Kentucky offense that is far better in transition.
- Hawaii's no-help defense will be put to the test by an Arkansas group that can win in isolation at a very high level. Arkansas' Darius Acuff Jr. has torched drop coverage this year, and he's one of the elite 'do-him' scorers in college basketball.
















