2026 NCAA Tournament South Region bracket preview: Predictions, sleepers, players to watch
Florida leads the South Region as Houston, Illinois and North Carolina headline a bracket packed with tough matchups, dangerous double-digit seeds and NBA-level guard play.
Florida's quest for a national title repeat could wind up going through the backyard of a perennial powerhouse in the South Region. Though Houston failed to secure the fourth No. 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket, the Cougars still landed where they always wanted to be.
As the No. 2 seed in the South, Kelvin Sampson's club is on track to return home to play at the Toyota Center in the Sweet 16. But first, they have to get there. With fearsome double-digit seeds lurking, the South features some potential treachery for well-seeded teams.
No. 6 seed North Carolina is this region's blue blood program, and the Tar Heels will have their hands full from the jump against No. 11 seed VCU. With star freshman forward Caleb Wilson out for the season, the Tar Heels are facing one of the tougher draws in the bracket. Getting past the Rams would likely mean facing No. 3 seed Illinois in the second round. The Illini are stronger than their seeding suggests.
From an analytics perspective, Illinois profiles as the seventh-strongest team in the field, meaning three of the seven the best squads in the NCAA Tournament from an efficiency perspective are in this corner of the bracket.
That doesn't leave much room for a long-term Cinderella from the double-digit seed range. But there are plenty of potential stories to monitor. No. 4 seed Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game in program history, and No. 5 seed Vanderbilt hasn't won one since 2012. After being brutally under-seeded by the committee, how will the Commodores respond?
March Madness® is better with friends, especially when you beat them! Get your bracket pools ready now and invite your friends, family and co-workers to play.
Here's a complete look at the South Region ahead of this week's action.
Best first-round game
(7) Saint Mary's vs. (10) Texas A&M: One year ago, Saint Mary's was a No. 7 seed and defeated No. 10 seed Vanderbilt in a clash of styles during the first round. The Gaels will attempt to pull off an eerily similar victory against an SEC foe Thursday evening. Once again, the opponent is a fast-paced team led by a first-year coach in Texas A&M's Bucky McMillan. The stylistic tug of war could go a variety of ways. Saint Mary's will hope it goes like last year's 59-56 win over Vanderbilt.
Top potential matchup
(2) Houston vs. (3) Illinois: The matchup would be an NBA scout's dream, as it would pit star freshman guards Kingston Flemings (Houston) and Keaton Wagler (Illinois) against each other. They are the Nos. 5 and No. 6 players, respectively, in the 2026 CBS Sports NBA Draft Prospect rankings and both are excellent shot-makers with March hero potential.
This Cougars team isn't quite on the level of last year's team that played for the national championship, but the backcourt trio of Flemings, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan is as good as any guard grouping in the country. Illinois would be at a home-court disadvantage playing Houston in Houston, but the game's location would guarantee a great environment.
Cinderella team that will surprise
(11) VCU: VCU has won 16 of its past 17 games under first-year coach Phil Martelli Jr. as it enters a first-round tilt with a vulnerable North Carolina team. The Rams shoot it great from beyond the arc but can still find ways to win even when 3-pointers aren't going down. Martelli is the fifth VCU coach in a 12-year span to lead the Rams to the Big Dance. This program is here on a regular basis, but it hasn't made a deep run since Shaka Smart led it to the the 2011 Final Four. This is a deep squad that proved its capability with double-digit wins over teams like South Florida and Virginia Tech before going 15-3 in Atlantic 10 play.
Team that will make a far-too-early exit
(4) Nebraska: Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament title game before, and this is its best seeding since 1991. The Cornhuskers are no lock to advance, though. First-round opponent Troy beat San Diego State on the road this season and took USC to three overtimes. Even if Nebraska advances, it will likely have to contend with Vanderbilt in the second round. The Commodores were comically under-seeded as a No. 5, making this a tough draw for Nebraska. It's a low bar to clear: one win over a No. 13 seed and you go down in program history. But the Cornhuskers are just 6-6 since their 20-0 start.
Six players to watch
- Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt: Tanner had a better breakout sophomore season than anyone in college basketball. The formerly overlooked prospect is averaging 19.2 points, 5.3 assists and 2.4 steals while shooting 37.3% from 3-point range. He is lightning-quick and has an elite sidekick in Duke Miles.
- Bennett Stirtz, Iowa: Stirtz followed Iowa coach Ben McCollum from Division II Northwest Missouri to Drake last season and now to Iowa. No one in college basketball controls a game for their team quite like Stirtz, who is averaging 20 points, 4.5 assists and 1.5 steals while posting excellent shooting splits. All of Iowa's ambitions are in Stirtz's hands.
- Kingston Flemings, Houston: Flemings is among the elite group of freshmen guards likely to be off the board early in the 2026 NBA Draft. It says volumes about Flemings' maturity and skill that he could enter a well-established program like Houston and play succesfully alongside veterans like Uzan and Sharp while maintaining coach Kelvin Sampson's high standards.
- Keaton Wagler, Illinois: Wagler wasn't even a top-250 prospect in the Class of 2025 within the 247Sports Composite. Illinois found an absolute gem. The rangy guard is an elite perimeter shooter (40.2%) who also leads the Illini in assists per game at 4.4
- Thomas Haugh, Florida: Florida coach Todd golden opted to play Haugh more at small forward this year after primarily deploying him as a power forward last season. It was a great decision that has unlocked another dimension in Haugh's game. He puts pressure on the basket and can also keep defenses honest with his perimeter shooting. Haugh does a little bit of everything and he's an exhausting matchup nightmare for opponents.
- Mikey Lewis, Saint Mary's: Lewis is averaging 22.6 points per game over his past five for Saint Mary's. The sophomore guard dropped 31 against Gonzaga on Feb. 28 in a pivotal victory. If Lewis is going to be that guy, the rest of college basketball better watch out.
South Regional winner
(1) Florida: This draw sets up nicely for Florida as the Gators mount their national title defense with the nation's best frontcourt and an improving crop of guards.
The Gators don't have the sort of perimeter superstar that they had last year in Walter Clayton Jr., but that hasn't mattered often over the past couple of months. UF can still dominate even when it shoots horrendously from the outside because it's the best rebounding team in the nation. Junior center Rueben Chinyelu is the most rugged of the interior crew, but Alex Condon, Micah Handlogten and Thomas Haugh are also towering figures capable of overwhelming the opposition.
The potential of having to beat Houston in Houston with a spot in the Final Four on the line is daunting, but Florida is actually tougher and meaner on the inside than the Cougars this year.
