There has never been and will never be two identical NCAA Tournament fields. Every year, the bracket changes, and we're thankful for that. So, have you noticed which teams this season have made big strides after falling well short of earning a bid on Selection Sunday last year?
If you haven't, we've got an even 10 representatives to talk about on that topic right now. What's changed for the teams on the rise? I tell you below. Only a few of these are title contenders, but all of them have at least one interesting facet or notable storyline to their push back to relevancy.
To make it easier, I've selected the 10 teams that are projected as single-digit seeds in Jerry Palm's latest Bracketology submission. So as of this piece's posting, most of these squads are safe ... for now. Can things change? Oh, you know it. I think there are three teams on this list who still have a lot to prove in order to ensure a bid this season. I dare say that at least one of the 10 teams listed below will somehow not make the NCAAs. February can be fiendish, and March is just vicious.
(Projected records are from KenPom.com and only include the regular season.)
Creighton Bluejays
Last year's record: 20-15
This year's projected record: 27-4
The season-ending injury to Mo Watson, Jr. obviously changes a lot. The Jays' hopes of making the Final Four take a big hit without the nation's best assist creator. But even without Watson, Creighton should be a top-30 team. Marcus Foster and Justin Patton have been very good, and the offense is designed to thrive. Creighton's better this year not just because it's older, but because the team can play fast and responsibly. It's hard to keep up with CU's pace. Unfortunately, the forecast is now hazy. With no Watson, this team becomes one of the most interesting to track down the stretch. Its seed spectrum could be anything from a No. 2 to a No. 10.
Florida Gators
Last year's record: 21-15
This year's projected record: 23-8
Hey, this is is going as expected for UF. Mike White is in his second year, and the program's going to be good so long as White is on the sidelines. When he got the job, I wrote that I could see him doing what Billy Donovan did. Not winning back-to-back titles, mind you, but staying at UF for well over a decade and keeping the program nationally relevant during most of his time there. Now the Gators are headed back to the NCAAs, probably, thanks to top-15 defense and a roster that's diverse. It's old and young, strong and lean, quick and sturdy. Who's Florida's best player? That's up for grabs every other game. Sometimes it's Kasey Hill. Sometimes it's Canyon Barry. Sometimes it's Devin Robinson. Sometimes it's KeVaughn Allen. For the Gators, this year is about just getting into the tournament and seeing where it goes from there. No expectations beyond that.
Florida State Seminoles
Last year's record: 20-14
This year's projected record: 25-6
Talk about a breakout season. Florida State's had 10 players drafted in the NBA since 2004. Leonard Hamilton's been the coach the whole way. And yet, FSU has just three NCAA Tournament wins in four appearances in that span. From a talent perspective, FSU is on the very short list of the most underachieving programs of the past decade.
Now, finally, a team with NBA talent in Tally that is playing beyond expectations. Jonathan Isaac will be a lottery pick, and Dwayne Bacon can average double digits, eventually, one day, in the NBA. Xavier Rathan-Mayes has been a really good college player from day one, and now this team is 17-2, tied atop the ACC standings and has won four of its last five games against ranked opponents. Viable Final Four threat, though you and I know that FSU won't get its due as a Final Four contender until it breaks through to the second weekend of the 2017 tournament. When you haven't been good in March, the public won't expect you to be good in March until you're actually good in March. You read me?
Northwestern Wildcats
Last year's record: 20-12
This year's projected record: 22-9
Do you dare dream it, Northwestern fan? (Yes, Northwestern has fans. Yes, about 30 percent of them are in the media.) The Wildcats, famously, have never made the NCAA Tournament. Chris Collins, who is already in his fourth year in Evanston, has improved the team every season. NU won 14 in 2014, then 15 the year after, then 20 last season. The Wildcats have their best offensive team in Collins' tenure, and that's due in large part to Bryant McIntosh, a junior point guard who will probably be a preseason All-Big Ten First Team selection next fall. McIntosh, Scottie Lindsey and Vic Law have put the team in a good spot, but there's still a lot of winning left to be done. I can't yet be tricked into believing Northwestern is definitely making the Dance this season. Still, if we stopped the season right now, NU would be in.
Saint Mary's Gaels
Last year's record: 29-6
This year's projected record: 25-4
A 29-6 record didn't include a trip to the NCAAs? Yep. That's because last year's Saint Mary's team had a really weak non-conference schedule, so without quality wins (it beat Gonzaga twice but didn't have any other wins over NCAA tourney teams), the Gaels were pushed to the margins. What's different this year? Well, the team returned its starting five, Jock Landale turned into one of the 20 best players in college basketball, and Randy Bennett scheduled up for a change. SMC has a road win at Dayton, defeated a good Nevada team and got a win at Stanford. If SMC can go 2-2 against BYU and Gonzaga in the league, and it gets to the WCC title game, I think that's going to be enough. The Gaels are 15-2 heading into their Thursday night game at home against Pacific.
SMU Mustangs
Last year's record: 25-5
This year's projected record: 24-7
This is the team with the asterisk. SMU wouldn't be on this list if it had been eligible to make last year's NCAA Tournament. But sanctions prevented that, so the Ponies didn't get to play in any postseason bracket. Now Tim Jankovich is doing a good job as Larry Brown's replacement (if you missed it, Brown bailed on the job in July), and the Ponies have one of the five most improved players in America in Semi Ojeleye. In fact, if you want a decent Sweet 16 sleeper, this is your team. Sterling Brown, Ben Moore, Shake Milton: these are all quality players that could start on many a top-25 team. SMU appears to be the firm No. 2 team in the American, only behind Cincinnati.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Last year's record: 25-9
This year's projected record: 24-7
The Gamecocks played a joke of a non-conference schedule last season, got out to a 15-0 start, then wobbled in the mediocre SEC. With that, Frank Martin's team was relegated to the NIT. But now the Gamecocks are almost assuredly going back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since -- can you believe this? -- 2004. It's really been that long. South Carolina is 15-3 this season, and all three losses came when its best player, Sindarius Thornwell, was suspended.
Now, I want to clarify something. The selection committee is aware of and will take into consideration the fact that Thornwell wasn't on the floor when the Cocks lost those three games. Still, 1) USC is going to lose again, multiple times, with Thornwell in the lineup, so his absence in previous losses will be further marginalized and 2) USC isn't absolved from those losses because Thornwell wasn't there. At the absolute best, the Gamecocks will get the benefit of one seed-line bump.
TCU Horned Frogs
Last year's record: 12-21
This year's projected record: 20-11
One of the biggest turnarounds this season. What changed? Jamie Dixon, pure and simple. He came over from Pittsburgh and it's already paying dividends. I'll be honest, I think TCU will fall just short of playing in this year's tourney, but as of now the Frogs are in, no doubt about it. And can you tell me the last time TCU went to the Big Dance? Unless you're an alum or lack a social life to such a degree that this obscure fact is readily residing in your brain, then you can't. The answer is 1998. I was a junior in high school, and the No. 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart was Will Smith's "Gettin' Jiggy Wit It." OK, OK. I haven't heard this song in forever. Let's enjoy. I kind of hate how much this is still sort of, maybe just a little bit, my jam!
UCLA Bruins
Last year's record: 15-17
This year's projected record: 28-3
The single biggest turnaround in college basketball this year. UCLA has the No. 1 offense in America, is on pace to get a No. 1 seed and has a probable top-five draft pick in Lonzo Ball and another likely lotto choice in fellow frosh T.J. Leaf. Bryce Alford keeps nailing big shots, and the Bruins can put up 80 points in their sleep. Steve Alford merely needed to bring in one of the best recruiting classes in program history to ensure he'd get a top seed, get the fans off his back and bring UCLA back to the forefront of the national college basketball conversation. If UCLA winds up with a 1 seed, would you dare not put this team into the Final Four? It will be hard not to. The only loss the Bruins have taken so far has come in the last second on the road against Oregon, which is another team with the talent to get to Phoenix this season.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Last year's record: 20-15
This year's projected record: 19-11
Buzz Williams is in his third year with the Hokies. The expectation from many in the business was that he'd get to the Dance with Va. Tech in year No. 3. At 14-4, he's on pace, but there's a lot to be proven. Va. Tech's best wins are at home over Duke (without Grayson Allen) and on the road against a Michigan team that might well be in the NIT. But this is undeniable progress. Now things get interesting and tough. The Hokies' next fives games: at Clemson, at UNC, home to Boston College, at Virginia, at Miami. Four of the next five on the road. If the Hokies win three of those games (a tall task), they'll be playing in the big bracket. Going 2-3 keeps their situation foggy. A 1-4 run or worse will slide this team to the soapy, uncertain sheen of the bubble.
