Arizona vs. Iowa State odds, prediction: 2026 Big 12 Tournament semifinal picks from proven model

The top-seeded Arizona Wildcats take on the No. 5 seed Iowa State Cyclones on Friday in the semifinals of the 2026 Big 12 Tournament. Arizona blasted UCF 81-59 in the quarterfinals to advance. Iowa State dominated Arizona State and Texas Tech in its first two matchups to advance to this point. The winner takes on the winner of Houston vs. Kansas in the Big 12 title game on Saturday. Arizona won the only regular season matchup between these teams 73-57 on March 2 in Tucson. 

Tipoff from the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City is at 7 p.m. ET. The latest Iowa State vs. Arizona odds list the Wildcats as 4.5-point favorites, while the over/under is 143.5. Before making any Arizona vs. Iowa State picks, check out the men's college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.    

Now, the model has simulated Arizona vs. Iowa State 10,000 times and just revealed its vmen's college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for Iowa State vs. Arizona

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Top Iowa State vs. Arizona predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Arizona vs. Iowa State, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (143.5 points). It was a defensive battle when these teams met on March 2 as the teams combined for just 130 points. Iowa State, however, has averaged 83 points per game in the Big 12 Tournament thus far and is certainly capable of a better offensive output against the Wildcats in a neutral-floor setting. 

The model is projecting that four Arizona players clear 11 points, while three ISU players score 14 points or more. The model projects 153 combined points as the Over hits 73% of the time. 

How to make Arizona vs. Iowa State picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits more than 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Iowa State vs. Arizona, and which side of the spread hits more than 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.