Of the 12 first-year coaches at the major conference level in the 2023-24 season, only two reached the NCAA Tournament in Year 1 on the job. One of them, Rodney Terry of Texas, had the benefit of spending much of the 2022-23 season in the interim chair before taking over on a full-time basis.
The other was Grant McCasland of Texas Tech, who arrived from North Texas and quickly led the Red Raiders back to the Big Dance. But there were 10 others, including big-name coaches and coaches at brand-name programs, who didn't necessarily capture lightning in a bottle to begin their tenures.
In the transfer portal era, the notion exists that a coaching change can and perhaps should lead to immediate success. While McCasland proved it's possible, the 2023-24 season was a reminder that the immediate hit rate following a coaching change — at least in terms of reaching the Big Dance — remains slim.
Chris Beard got Ole Miss off to a 13-0 start before the grind of SEC play caught up to the Rebels. Rick Pitino led St. John's to five straight Big East victories to close the regular season, but the Red Storm also fell short of reaching the NCAA Tournament. Like Beard and Pitino, new Syracuse coach Adrian "Red" Autry reached 20 wins in his first season, but the Orange didn't have the resume needed to go dancing.
Their first seasons offer cautionary tales for fans of several high-profile programs that are entering the 2024-25 season under new leadership. A year ago, it was actually first-year coaches at mid-major schools such as Will Wade of McNeese, Alan Huss of High Point and Amir Abdur-Rahim of South Florida who pulled off the most impressive turnarounds.
Some mid-major coaches such as Sundance Wicks (Green Bay to Wyoming), Danny Sprinkle (Utah State to Washington) and Steve Lutz (Western Kentucky to Oklahoma State) parlayed incredibly successful one-year stints to quickly upgrade jobs yet again.
So, as the 2024-25 season approaches, which first-year coaches are poised to have best debuts? Here's the breakdown of those best-positioned for immediate success.
1. John Calipari | Arkansas
Arkansas came in at No. 16 in the preseason AP poll after John Calipari arrived and quickly welcomed a talented crop of players. The Razorbacks didn't spend big on a former national champion to succeed Eric Musselman for the sake of a slow burn. And, at 65, Calipari certainly doesn't appear to be planning on a gradual build. His team was picked by media to finish fourth in the SEC, and anything less than a return to the NCAA Tournament would be a major disappointment. With the nation's No. 3 high school recruiting class and No. 1 recruiting classes on campus, the Razorbacks plan to win big now.
2. Jake Diebler | Ohio State
Diebler posted an 8-3 mark as Ohio State's interim coach following the midseason firing of Chris Holtmann. He earned the full-time gig and stocked up on enough transfer talent to help the Buckeyes land at No. 6 in the 2024-25 Big Ten predictions from CBS Sports. The headliners are frontcourt players and former McDonald's All-Americans Sean Stewart (Duke) and Aaron Bradshaw (Kentucky). Battle-tested wing Micah Parrish enters from San Diego State, and ex-Ohio State guard Meechie Johnson has transferred back from South Carolina. Promoting Diebler also helped with retaining star guard Bruce Thornton. Ohio State's depth is suspect, but it has one of the most talented projected starting fives in a wide open conference.
3. Dusty May | Michigan
Michigan landed a rising star in Dusty May after Juwan Howard's up-and-down tenure ended with an 8-24 disaster year. In an evolving Big Ten, May will have the chance to immediately restore the Wolverines to NCAA Tournament status. The architect of FAU's remarkable 2023 Final Four run landed a pair of highly touted 7-footers from the portal in Danny Wolf (Yale) and Vlad Goldin (FAU). The backcourt is highlighted by a pair of proven major conference transfers in Tre Donaldson (Auburn) and Roddy Gayle Jr. (Ohio State).
4. Josh Schertz | Saint Louis
Fresh off a 32-win season at Indiana State, Schertz is positioned to find early success at Saint Louis with a team that was picked to finish fourth in the Atlantic 10 preseason poll. Former ISU stars Isaiah Swope and Robbie Avila are joining Schertz, who also kept a handful of promising players from last year's SLU roster from fleeing. Among them is 3-point marksman Gibson Jimerson, who is a three-time all-conference performer and the team's leading scorer from the past three seasons. Power conference transfers Kobe Johnson (West Virginia), AJ Casey (Miami) and Josiah Dotzler (Creighton) are also coming along for the ride. Schertz is clearly an elite tactician, and he's got an upper-tier A-10 roster to work with out of the gate.
5. Chris Mack | Charleston
After getting canned midway through the 2021-22 season at Louisville, Mack is getting back in the game with a strong Charleston program. The Cougars just made consecutive NCAA Tournaments under Pat Kelsey, who ironically left for Louisville. Mack was great at Xavier from 2009 to 2018 and also had some success with the Cardinals before an unceremonious ending. But he's got more than just a good track record. He's also got a good 2024-25 roster, highlighted by CAA preseason player of the year Ante Brzovic. The 6-10 center will be surrounded by a handful of productive transfers who should ensure a high floor for the Cougars in Mack's first season.