Belmont vs. Drake odds, prediction: 2026 MVC Tournament picks for March 6 from proven model

The ninth-seeded Drake Bulldogs take on the top-seeded Belmont Bruins in the quarterfinals of the 2026 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament on Friday afternoon. Drake is coming off a 67-63 win over Southern Illinois in an Arch Madness first-round matchup on Thursday, while Belmont dropped an 81-74 decision at Illinois State in the regular-season finale on Sunday. The Bulldogs (13-19, 6-14 MVC), who snapped a nine-game losing streak against the Salukis, are looking to win their fourth MVC Tournament title in a row. The Bruins (26-5, 16-4 MVC), who are 2-0 on neutral courts this season, are seeking their first-ever MVC Tournament title.

Tipoff from the Enterprise Center in St. Louis is set for 1 p.m. ET. Drake leads the all-time series 5-4, but Belmont swept the season series, including a 103-90 win on Feb. 3. Belmont is an 11.5-point favorite in the latest Drake vs. Belmont odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 153.5. Before making any Drake vs. Belmont picks, check out the men's college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

New users can target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets if your first $5+ bet wins:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered Week 18 on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 23-17 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.    

Now, the model has simulated Drake vs. Belmont 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men's college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for Belmont vs. Drake:

New users can also check out the latest FanDuel promo code and get $100 in bonus bets at FanDuel if your first $5+ bet wins:

Top Drake vs. Belmont predictions

SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (153.5 points). The Over has hit in each of the last two head-to-head meetings. The Over has hit in six of the last 10 Drake games, and in eight of the last 10 Belmont games. Drake is 2-8 against the spread in its last 10 games. Belmont, meanwhile, is 7-3 ATS in its last 10.

The model projects the Bulldogs to have five players score 8.4 points or more, including Jalen Quinn's projected 20.7 points. The Bruins are projected to have three players score 10.8 points or more, led by Tyler Lundblade, who is projected to score 16.6 points. The model is projecting 157 combined points as the Over clears in nearly 60% of simulations. 

How to make Belmont vs. Drake picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Belmont vs. Drake, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Drake vs. Belmont spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.