It's a championship battle between the top teams in the Ohio Valley Conference as Murray State tips off Saturday against Belmont with an automatic NCAA Tournament bid on the line.

Murray State opened as a one-point favorite for the 8 p.m. ET tip and now is laying 2.5. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas believes will be scored, is 154.5.

Before picking either side of the OVC final, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, enters the first weekend of March on a red-hot 6-0 streak on its recent college basketball picks.

Now, the computer has examined every matchup, every player and every trend for Racers vs. Bruins. We can tell you it's leaning very heavily toward the Under and has also locked in a strong against-the-spread pick that hits in over 60 percent of simulations.

The model knows Belmont's best chance to stay within the spread -- or win outright -- is to neutralize slippery Murray State guard Jonathan Stark, who leads the team in scoring at 21.7 points per game. The Bruins would be well-served making one of his teammates beat them from the perimeter since he's a 42-percent long-distance shooter.

Murray State can cover the spread by double-teaming Belmont forward Dylan Windler, who's knocking down 56 percent of his shots from the field for the season and draining threes at a 43 percent clip. Both teams like to play uptempo, but the Racers can be careless with the rock in transition.

So what side of Belmont-Murray State do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see the strong against-the-spread pick that you can bank on over 60 percent of the time.