Welcome to our third installment in this season-long series. Want some help trying to figure out which teams have done the most for their NCAA Tournament resume in non-conference play? Here's a handy guide. As non-league play is almost entirely wrapped up, what teams have done in the past six weeks will wind up having significant influence on where they're seeded on Selection Sunday.
There's so much left to be decided, of course, but don't underestimate just how much non-conference scheduling decisions can -- and should -- influence the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
We've got two new teams in the rankings this week. And there are five teams with a good case for No. 10. The good news is we'll have more clarity by Jan. 1.
I'm evaluating teams' resumes based on this criteria: Who did you beat and where did you beat them, how many good teams have you played/defeated, who have you lost to and where did you lose to them, and what is your overall strength of schedule?
I've looked through the resumes of every team ranked in the top 50 of KenPom, CBSSports' RPI and the always-helpful KPI, and so here are the 10 most impressive team reports in college basketball as of Dec. 22.
10. Virginia Cavaliers (10-1)
Current AP Top 25 ranking: 12th
Surprised? You missed Virginia winning on the road Wednesday night out on the West Coast. That's two road wins for Virginia, and you know how much I, and the committee, covet road wins. I will say that Virginia is in a crazy-tight race vs. Kentucky (who would be top 4 if they hadn't lost to Louisville Wednesday night), Indiana, USC and West Virginia (which won at Virginia but also has a miserable strength of schedule) for this No. 10 spot. UVa has wins over Iowa, Providence, Ohio State and Cal. It's not a murderer's row, but there are two road wins in there and anyway if this ranking bothers you. Virginia's going to either bump up or take a long break from this list because it plays at Louisville on Dec. 28. A win there, and Virginia would vault to a top-eight resume. The Cavaliers are ranked No. 3 in KenPom, by the way.
9. Duke Blue Devils (12-1)
Current AP Top 25 ranking: 5th
No. 2 in KenPom, No. 10 in RPI. I will say that it doesn't feel great to put Duke this high, but the team has just one loss, while Indiana, UNC and Kentucky all have two. And you have to fall to a certain degree for losing games, especially with a sample size at less than 14. Now, put aside all the Grayson Allen noise. To date, Duke's only loss is on a neutral court to Kansas, which has just one loss and it came in the season-opener to Indiana ... which is barely missing from this list. The Blue Devils are off until Dec. 31. We know the team will not have Grayson Allen for at least one game, and so the committee will judge Duke in those game(s) with the knowledge that the team isn't at full strength.
8. Butler Bulldogs (11-1)
Current AP Top 25 ranking: 13th
The Bulldogs have one loss, and it's a bad loss. At Indiana State. But that's an "at." Road game. Butler also has wins over Arizona, Cincinnati, Northwestern and Indiana -- all teams firmly in the NCAA Tournament picture as of today. If Butler was undefeated, it would be fourth on this list. That's how much a one-point loss against a middling Missouri Valley team can drop you, but it's still a really impressive resume on the whole. The non-con strength of schedule ranks 73rd. Butler's also got a road win at Utah. To me, there is no legitimate challenger for that last 2 seed right now.
7. Kansas Jayhawks (10-1)
Current AP Top 25 ranking: 3rd
Kansas gets a respectable placement here because the Jayhawks have played fewer bad opponents than any other team under consideration. KU's non-con SOS is a respectable 69th, which is nice comparatively. KU's yet to play a road game, but that changed on Thursday. Now, UNLV is not good, but Kansas is playing at UNLV's home arena. KU has defeated Duke, Georgia, Stanford and Davidson. Those are the top four wins, and KU's won 10 straight. Only loss is in OT to a good Indiana team on a neutral court in overtime in the season-opener. Interesting aspect for Kansas going forward is how it plays without Udoka Azubuike, who is out for the rest of the season with a wrist injury.
6. Creighton Bluejays (12-0)
Current AP Top 25 ranking: 9th
An undefeated non-conference record, including two road wins, a 5-0 road/neutral record and a victory over Wisconsin. Also defeated NC State, and I'll bet you a nickel that win looks better on Jan. 22 than it does on Dec. 22. Even with a non-conference SOS that ranks 187th, Creighton would be LOCK CITY for a No. 2 seed if the tournament started today. No argument against it. None. One of six undefeated teams, has played legitimate opponents, won two road games and defeated a Wisconsin team with a case for a No. 3 seed as of today. Plus, the team can ball and plays quick, killer offense. The Bluejays remain the most underrated team in America.
5. Louisville Cardinals (11-1)
Current AP Top 25 ranking: 10th
The Cardinals would be top-four if not for that one loss, and it's a good loss, which came Nov. 25 by three points against undefeated Baylor. Every team ranked ahead of Louisville is still without a defeat. As mentioned, the Cards beat Kentucky on Wednesday night -- and what a huge win that is and will remain to be for Rick Pitino's team. Elsewhere, U of L has wins over Wichita State and Purdue, both of whom rank in the top 25 in multiple rankings services. Non-con strength of schedule: 60th. Not bad, relatively speaking. And Louisville has a true road win at Grand Canyon, which isn't a power, but also not an easy place to play it. (In fact, it looks like an awesome time for the home crowd.)
4. Gonzaga Bulldogs (12-0)
Current AP Top 25 ranking: 7th
First time in program history Gonzaga has gone undefeated in non-conference play. The 12-0 start is also the best run to begin a season at Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are my pick for the final No. 1 seed as of now because 1) going undefeated matters 2) it matters all the more when you've faced some solid competition 3) Gonzaga is 7-0 against top-100 opponents and 4) it's 5-0 away from home. Now, the schedule isn't as tough this season as it's been in the past, but still: Arizona, Florida and Iowa State are all on the victims list. The Bulldogs will need to be nearly perfect in WCC play to hold on to a 1 seed going forward, but for now, yes, this team has a top-four resume in college hoops.
3. UCLA Bruins (13-0)
Current AP Top 25 ranking: 2nd
A 13-0 run through the non-conference lands UCLA firmly at No. 3. The Bruins have that great road win at Kentucky, plus wins over Texas A&M, Michigan and Ohio State to round out their top-40 competition. Strength of schedule: 205. Not putrid, but far from solid. Still, you can't deny what UCLA's done, how good it's looked in the process and how lethal that offense is. Getting to 13-0 is something nobody predicted, and the Bruins are on the path to a 1 seed as we head to 2017.
2. Villanova Wildcats (12-0)
Current AP Top 25 ranking: 1st
The Wildcats are the reigning champs, but last year's accomplishments don't have a say in this year's seeding. Villanova has completed most of its non-conference play without a scratch (Virginia comes to Philly in January; that should be great!), and it's got a non-conference strength of schedule sitting at 90. Nova has a very good road win over Purdue, a nice neutral court win over Notre Dame and road/neutral record of 7-0. Has played six top-100 opponents, but Notre Dame and Purdue are the only teams on the path to the NCAAs that VU has faced.
1. Baylor Bears (12-0)
Current AP Top 25 ranking: 4th
Staying in the top spot because the Bears are winning most of their games by double digits, and the teams below them haven't collected enough heft to warrant vaulting the Bears. Baylor is idle until Dec. 30, so I'm already giving it up for next week: They're going to be No. 1 again because no team will acquire enough wins to warrant a switch. I will say this, though: If Villanova beats Creighton on Dec. 31, the Wildcats will unequivocally take the No. 1 overall resume. And if Creighton wins over VU? Then the Bluejays are gonna find themselves in the top four. Keep an eye on that game. For now, Baylor can be plenty satisified by going a month with having the best rundown of any team in college hoops.
Kentucky beats UNC but loses to Louisville
Kentucky (10-2): The Wildcats do not have a case to a top-10 resume right now, even after beating UNC. This speaks to the logjam between Nos. 7-14, really, because Kentucky would've been No. 4 on the list if it won at Louisville. But it lost. And losing has to mean you drop when you're talking about the best resumes in the country. I'd rank Kentucky 12th right now. Win over UNC is great, but UNC does have two losses. The second-best win is against Michigan State, and the Spartans don't even have an NCAA Tournament resume at the moment. Non-con SOS is 78th. That's solid. Kentucky's next two games are at Ole Miss and home vs. Texas A&M. Plausible to think UK cracks the top 10 with wins in both of those games. But teams ranked ahead of the Cats will need to lose, of course.
