Bill Self retirement watch looms over college basketball coaching carousel

As recently as two weeks ago, this was supposed to be a tame year on the coaching carousel.

But with North Carolina opening up Tuesday evening, that notion was officially obliterated. UNC is a top-three college basketball job and will almost certainly land a big-name coach. If the candidate comes from the college ranks, the ramifications will wind up having downstream effects on plenty of other programs. And there might be more seismic change coming in the days or weeks ahead, as industry sources are closely watching another situation that could reshape the sport just as dramatically.

Will Kansas coach Bill Self retire?

If he does, it won't be today. There were rumors bubbling about Self's imminent retirement Wednesday morning, on not just social media but also among college coaches. A source close to Self told CBS Sports the rumors were "not true" and "bad information."

It remains unclear if Self will ultimately choose to retire in the coming days or weeks, but the Hall of Famer did acknowledge the possibility Sunday after fourth-seeded Kansas fell to No. 5 seed St. John's on a buzzer-beater in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

"I'll get back and get with family and visit and see what's going on," Self said in San Diego. "I love what I do, I need to be able to do it where I'm feeling good and healthy to do it fairly well. I'll get back home, and it'll all be discussed."

The 63-year-old has dealt with multiple heart-related health issues in recent years, though he said earlier this month he expected to continue coaching while making an appearance on the Eye on College Basketball podcast.

"I think so," Self told CBS Sports. "As long as I feel good, I don't know why I wouldn't keep doing it. I've had my personal health issues that I've dealt with, and has it been a handicap in me doing my job? I don't think so. But has it been a pain to get through some things? Yeah, it has been. ...

"I still love it. I still love the kids. I want to keep doing it. But I'm only going to keep doing it as long as I feel well. And right now I feel well, so I don't see any reason to stop."

Still, the timing -- paired with Kansas' early NCAA Tournament exit, a fourth straight year the Jayhawks missed the Sweet 16 -- has created uncertainty around one of the sport's premier jobs. 

If Self were to step away and Kansas does not promote from within, it would trigger a rare and potentially historic alignment atop the coaching market. 

Two of the four best jobs in college basketball would be searching for head coaches in the same cycle for just the second time in the past 75 years. The last occurrence came in 2003-04, when Self left Illinois to replace Roy Williams at Kansas after Williams departed for North Carolina.

That overlap would immediately intensify competition for top candidates and would almost certainly reshape the landscape of college basketball; the domino effect would cascade across the high-major and mid-major levels in the ensuing weeks.

For now, North Carolina's opening alone is expected to take time to unfold. With many top candidates still coaching (Tommy Lloyd, Dusty May, TJ Otzelberger), movement is not anticipated until next week at the absolute earliest.

But if Kansas joins the mix, what is already a high-stakes coaching cycle could quickly become a defining moment for the sport over the next decade.