Bracketology Bubble Watch: BYU aims for big win vs. Kansas, inconsistent UConn faces Villanova

The Bracketology Bubble Watch returns after a couple of quiet days with five teams playing including two of the new teams to the bubble from the Big East.

Xavier has played its way onto the bottom of the bubble with three wins in its last four. UConn also makes an appearance after a loss at then-last place Seton Hall.

The bubble should start to shrink as we get closer to Selection Sunday in less than four weeks.

Bracketology: Loss to Auburn not costly for Alabama, Crimson Tide remain No. 2 overall seed

Jerry Palm

Check out Palm's latest bracket, full field of 68 and Bubble Watch at the Bracketology hub

All times ET

Bubble teams in action Tuesday

UConn

vs. Villanova, 6:30 p.m. | FS1, fubo (Try for free)

The Huskies, a No. 9 seed in the latest bracket projection, have a tournament résumé full of holes. Among their eight losses are two each in Quad 2 and Quad 3 and a total of five losses to teams not currently in the bracket. The worst of those is the latest one, a loss at Seton Hall. UConn also has five wins over teams in the bracket, including Texas, which is one of the "last four in."  That inconsistency is why the Huskies have spent most of the season in the middle of the bracket and why they could eventually fall out. I would still be surprised if they did.

Oklahoma

at Florida, 7 p.m. | ESPN2, fubo (Try for free)

The Sooners have been sliding down the bracket the last few weeks and find themselves as a No. 10 seed now. That is just above the last four teams in the bracket, an area already populated with three SEC teams. Oklahoma's next five games are all against teams seeded in the top 25 of the bracket, although this is the toughest of those. The last game before the SEC Tournament is at fellow bubbler Texas. It is probably going to be a nervous Selection Sunday if they don't split these last six games.

Xavier

vs. Butler, 8 p.m. | Peacock

Xavier. one of the "first four out" will probably have to wait until the Big East Tournament to fully make its case for a spot in the field. The Musketeers only have one team that they can beat in this final stretch to help their resume. They just have to win the others also. Xavier's margin for error is pretty small.

BYU

vs. Kansas, 9 p.m. | ESPN, fubo (Try for free)

The Cougars, a No. 11 seed and one of the "last four in," have picked up a few wins since losing at Cincinnati a little over a week ago. The win at West Virginia was especially good since that is a team BYU is competing with for a spot. A win over the Jayhawks would be its best so far by a wide margin, but it does not guarantee anything.

San Diego State 

vs. Fresno State, 11 p.m. | CBS Sports Network (Channel finder)

The Aztecs, a projected No. 10 seed, have won six of their last seven games, most recently over Boise State, giving them a season sweep. The gold star on their tournament résumé is a win over Houston in Las Vegas back in November. The next two games are at Utah State and home to Mountain West leader New Mexico. The Aztecs better not get caught looking ahead.

Teams near the cut line

Last four in	Team	Record	NET
	Texas	16-10	31
	BYU	17-8	36
	West Virginia	15-10	44
	Indiana	15-10	57

First four out	Team	Record	NET
	Georgia	16-10	39
	Indiana	15-11	57
	Xavier	16-10	54
	North Carolina	15-11	47

Next four out	Team	Record	NET
	VCU	19-5	34
	Boise State	16-8	48
	SMU	19-6	40
	Cincinnati	15-10	45

NCAA Tournament locks

Locks based on résumé: 16 | At-large bids in play: 41 | Automatic bids secured: 0 of 31

Note – all references to NCAA Tournament selection records and trends based on NET rankings excludes the 2021 tournament. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of non-conference games, those rankings are not reliable enough to be considered.