Bracketology Bubble Watch: Evaluating eight controversial NCAA Tournament resumes after Ohio State's big win
Here's the case for and against eight teams near the NCAA Tournament cut line entering the first week of March

Ohio State finally earned a marquee victory on Sunday, knocking off No. 8 Purdue 82-74 for an unassailable Quad 1 win that could do wonders for the Buckeyes on Selection Sunday. Taking down the Boilermakers vaulted Ohio State from the First Four Out in CBS Sports Bracketology to a No. 10 seed as the first week of March gets underway.
Sunday was less kind to Indiana, which fell 77-64 to No. 13 Michigan State for its fourth straight loss. The Hoosiers began the day as one of the First Four Out, but woke up Monday firmly out of the field. It's IU's second four-game losing streak in Big Ten play, which has been one of the streakiest teams in college basketball under first-year coach Darian DeVries.
Indiana wasn't the only bubble team to crash over the weekend. In fact, the Hoosiers' Quad 1 loss against a quality opponent was respectable in comparison to the losses taken by Auburn and Cal. Both the Tigers and Bears suffered Quad 3 losses and are now among the First Four Out.
Here's how the bubble shapes up entering the final week of the regular season.
Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model's latest bracket at the Bracketology hub
NCAA Tournament bubble
Last Four In
First Four Out
- Cal
- Auburn
- San Diego State
- Seton Hall
Next Four Out
Breaking down the bubble
Note: Wins Above Bubble (WAB) is a vital resume metric used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. It correlates more closely to selection and seeding than NET. Read more here.
TCU
Record: 19-10 (9-7 Big 12)
WAB rank: 42
Quad 1/2 record: 9-8
Quad 3/4 record: 10-2
What's left: Tuesday at Texas Tech (Q1), Saturday vs. Cincinnati (Q2)
Case for: TCU owns a great trio of victories against Florida, Wisconsin and Iowa State. The Horned Frogs have won six of their past seven.
Case against: The Horned Frogs opened the season with a Quad 4 home loss to New Orleans and also lost to Big 12 bottom feeders Utah and Colorado.
VCU
Record: 22-7 (13-3 Atlantic 10)
WAB rank: 46
Quad 1/2 record: 5-7
Quad 3/4 record: 17-0
What's left: Tuesday vs. George Mason (Q3), Friday at Dayton (Q1)
Case for: VCU has rattled off victories in 11 of its past 12 games and has early-season wins against South Florida and Virginia Tech that are fringe Quad 1 wins.
Case against: The Rams have no victories against projected at-large tournament teams and won't get one unless it beats Saint Louis in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
Santa Clara
Record: 24-7 (15-3 WCC)
WAB rank: 41
Quad 1/2 record: 8-6
Quad 3/4 record: 15-1
What's left: vs. TBD on March 8 in WCC Tournament quarterfinals
Case for: Santa Clara averages out around 40th in both resume and predictive metrics, which is the profile of a likely at-large team.
Case against: The Broncos have just one victory against an at-large team (Jan. 17 vs. Saint Mary's).
New Mexico
Record: 22-7 (13-5 Mountain West)
WAB rank: 45
Quad 1/2 record: 8-6
Quad 3/4 record: 13-1
What's left: Wednesday vs. Colorado State (Q3), Saturday at Utah State (Q1)
Case for: New Mexico is a solid 8-6 across Quad 1 and Quad 2 with a profile boosted by December victories over potential at-large teams Santa Clara and VCU.
Case against: The Lobos are so close to the cut line that they could fall victim to a "bid thief" if some unexpected conference tournament champions emerge.
First Four Out
VCU
Record: 20-9 (8-8 ACC)
WAB rank: 51
Quad 1/2 record: 6-8
Quad 3/4 record: 13-1
What's left: Wednesday at Georgia Tech (Q3), Saturday at Wake Forest (Q1)
Case for: Cal is a respectable 4-4 in Quad 1 and owns victories over projected NCAA Tournament teams UCLA, North Carolina and Miami.
Case against: The Bears lag way behind in predictive metrics and just suffered a 16-point Quad 3 home loss against Pitt.
Auburn
Record: 15-14 (6-10 A-10)
WAB rank: 47
Quad 1/2 record: 7-13
Quad 3/4 record: 8-1
What's left: Tuesday vs. LSU (Q2), Saturday at Alabama (Q1)
Case for: Auburn owns an impressive six victories against projected at-large teams (Florida, St. John's, Arkansas, Kentucky, NC State and Texas).
Case against: The Tigers have dropped seven of their past eight games and are flirting with a .500 record. The latest defeat was a Quad 3 crusher against an Ole Miss team that had dropped 10 straight.
Seton Hall
Record: 19-10 (9-9 Big East)
WAB rank: 55
Quad 1/2 record: 7-8
Quad 3/4 record: 12-2
What's left: Tuesday at Xavier (Q2), Friday vs. St. John's (Q1)
Case for: If you're into defense, Seton Hall plays it at an elite level. The Pirates rate 12th in defensive efficiency at KenPom.
Case against: The Pirates have no victories against projected NCAA Tournament teams since a neutral-site win over NC State on Nov. 24.
San Diego State
Record: 19-9 (13-5 Mountain West)
WAB rank: 52
Quad 1/2 record: 7-8
Quad 3/4 record: 11-1
What's left: Tuesday at Boise State (Q1), Friday vs. UNLV (Q3)
Case for: With a KenPom ranking of 42nd and a Torvik ranking of 41st, predictive metrics suggest the Aztecs are a stronger team than some others on the bubble.
Case against: San Diego State has just one victory over a projected at-large team (Feb. 25 vs. Utah State) and it came at home.
















