Bracketology Bubble Watch: Ranking which conferences are most likely to produce NCAA Tournament bid thieves
At-large candidates beware: These are the potential bid thieves you should root against as Selection Sunday rapidly approaches
The uncomfortable reality for teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble is that their postseason fates will be impacted in potentially dramatic ways by factors outside their control. Among those factors is the likely emergence of bid thieves from conference tournament season.
Look no further than the 2024 postseason for an example of how unexpected league tournament champions can put the squeeze on at-large candidates. A sizable contingent of bid thieves emerged that season.
Most prominent was NC State, which completed a historic run through the ACC Tournament before making it all the way to the Final Four as a No. 11 seed. The Wolfpack were not an at-large candidate entering the postseason, and they essentially "stole" a bid from someone else with their unexpected run.
Oregon's run through the Pac-12 Tournament came in a similar mold. Surprise champions from the American, Atlantic 10 and Mountain West also contributed to making 2024 a prime year of bid thievery. Teams like Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Indiana State and Pitt all paid the price.
All four ended up on the wrong side of the bubble as at-large candidates because so many leagues produced one more tournament team than expected.
So who are the potential bid thieves to look out for in 2026? Here's the breakdown using the CBS Sports Bracketology model's conference tournament predictions as a guide. Percentages signify the likelihood that a team will win its conference tournament.
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Ranking NCAA Tournament bid thief possibilities
1. MAC
Conference tournament favorite: Akron (54.3%)
Top potential bid thieves: Akron (54.3%), Bowling Green (3.9%), Toledo (3.9%)
Context: It's Akron — not Miami (Ohio) — that our model views as the favorite to win the MAC Tournament. The Zips have won 15 straight league games since taking a loss to the RedHawks early in league play. Akron also rates better in predictive metrics than Miami, but Miami will have a strong at-large case if it fails to win the league tournament. Thus, the MAC could easily be a two-bid league if anyone other than Miami cuts down the nets.
2. Mountain West
Conference tournament favorite: Utah State (33.2%)
Top potential bid thieves: San Diego State (13.6%), Colorado State (8.5%), Nevada (5.1%)
Context: There is a doomsday scenario for the Mountain West in which Utah State wins the conference tournament and turns this conference into a one-bid league. New Mexico (23.7% chance to win the tournament) is a viable at-large contender but perhaps not a "bid thief" since a run to the title game would enhance the Lobos' at-large candidacy. San Diego State's recent slide has diminished the league's hope of producing three tournament teams.
3. Atlantic 10
Conference tournament favorite: Saint Louis (42.7%)
Top potential bid thieves: St. Joseph's (6.8%), Dayton (6.5%), George Washington (6.4%)
Context: VCU is not listed as a potential bid thief because it might be safe if it reached the Atlantic 10 Tournament title game. The Rams are among the "Last Four In" entering Thursday's action. Saint Louis is clearly the top dog in the league, but Dayton and George Washington are top-100 teams at KenPom and worth monitoring.
4. Big East
Conference tournament favorite: UConn (55.7%)
Top potential bid thieves: DePaul (5.1%), Providence (3.1%), Georgetown (1.9%)
Context: With only three teams regarded as locks to make the NCAA Tournament, the Big East is easily the high-major league that is most likely to produce a bid thief. Seton Hall is not included here since the Pirates might have a good at-large case if they reached the conference tournament title game. They entered Thursday's action among the First Four Out in the CBS Sports Bracketology model.
5. WCC
Conference tournament favorite: Gonzaga (68.8%)
Top potential bid thieves: San Francisco (0.5%), Washington State (0.5%), Pacific (0.3%)
Context: Santa Clara is a viable at-large candidate and not listed as a potential bid thief, but other bubble teams will want to see the No. 3 seed Broncos lose their quarterfinal game. That could mean the WCC only produces two tournament teams (Gonzaga and Saint Mary's) instead of three.
6. Big 12
Conference tournament favorite: Arizona (31.2%)
Top potential bid thieves: Cincinnati (0.6%), Baylor (0.4%), West Virginia (0.3%)
Context: Cincinnati might be a viable at-large team if it reached the Big 12 Tournament title game, but the surging Bearcats still have plenty of ground to make up. So, for this exercise, they are included as a potential bid thief. An offensively talented Baylor team could be one to watch. The tandem of Tounde Yessoufou and Cam Carr gives the defensively challenged Bears some pop.
7. SEC
Conference tournament favorite: Florida (34.3%)
Top potential bid thieves: Ole Miss (0.4%), Mississippi State (0.1%), LSU (0.1%)
Context: Oklahoma is a great example of a team that could be a pseudo-bid thief. The Sooners are in the Next Four Out as of March 5 and not viewed as a likely at-large team. But if the Sooners continued their recent surge all the way to the SEC Tournament title game, their at-large hopes would be more realistic.
8. ACC
Conference tournament favorite: Duke (46.4%)
Top potential bid thieves: Florida State (0.2%), Stanford (0.2%), Syracuse (0.1%)
Context: Virginia Tech is not included as a potential bid thief because it stands to reason that the Hokies might be a legitimate at-large team if they actually reached the title game of the ACC Tournament. The likelihood of a thief emerging here is far slimmer now than it was in 2024 when NC State emerged. That's because the ACC has more tournament-caliber teams.
9. Big Ten
Conference tournament favorite: Michigan (39.6%)
Top potential bid thieves: Washington (0.2%), Minnesota (0.1%)
Context: The likelihood of a true bid thief out of the Big Ten is minuscule. Indiana is not included as a potential bid thief because the Hoosiers would be a viable at-large team if they reached the Big Ten Tournament title game. In that sense, the Hoosiers would be a pseudo-bid thief as a team that emerged during conference tournament week to claim an at-large bid.
Likely one-bid leagues
The following conferences are projected to produce one NCAA Tournament team, regardles of what transpires in their league tournaments: American, America East, Atlantic Sun, Big West, Big Sky, Big South, CAA, Horizon, Ivy, Southland, MAAC, MEAC, Missouri Valley, NEC, OVC, Patriot, SoCon, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, Conference USA, WAC.
