Before I get into the Bubble Watch, there was one major development at the top of the bracket on Tuesday. Purdue is back to the No. 1 overall seed after UConn's 85-66 loss at Creighton. The Huskies are back to No. 2 overall seed. The difference between those two is smaller than it was when the NCAA revealed its top 16 seeds Saturday.
Wake Forest dealt Pitt's NCAA Tournament hopes a blow Tuesday with a 91-58 demolition of the Panthers. With a poor strength of schedule and a .500 record against the top three quadrants, Pitt is going to have to finish strong to have any hopes of seeing its name in the bracket on Selection Sunday.
For the Demon Deacons, it was a nice bounce back from the loss at Virginia, but they need to show they can beat NCAA Tournament quality opposition away from home and the closest they can get to that in the regular season is at Virginia Tech on March 2. They get Duke at home Saturday.
Butler fell out of the bracket this morning after a 72-62 loss at Villanova. The Bulldogs are just 9-11 vs the top three quadrants and only one team has ever finished two games below .500 against that group and still made the field.
Texas A&M is also out for now after an uninspiring loss at home to Arkansas. That gives the Razorbacks a sweep of the Aggies in the regular season. TAMU is 15-11 overall with five Quad 3 losses. That is going to be hard to overcome unless the Aggies get hot in the little bit of season we have left.
Wednesday's action is headlined by an in-state rivalry game that is also a "double bubble" game. Also, a couple of teams are looking to pick up much needed road wins.
Check out all the teams on Palm's Bubble Watch, the field of the 68 and the entire bracket on the Bracketology hub
Wednesday's 'double bubble' game
Ole Miss at Mississippi State
9 p.m. | SEC Network, fuboTV (Try for free)
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| The Rebels are closely behind MSU because their schedule is even worse and their best wins do not measure up to those of Mississippi State. A season sweep of the series between the two would give Ole Miss a leg up though. | |
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| Mississippi State is in slightly better shape than Ole Miss because of the quality of its wins, but is a bubble team because of a poor schedule and losses in both Quad 3 and Quad 4. It is important for the Bulldogs to hold serve at home after losing the first matchup on the road. | |
Other bubble teams in action Wednesday
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| vs. Oklahoma State, 7 p.m. | ESPN+ -- Cincinnati is new to the bracket this morning and if the Bearcats hope to stay in, a win over the Cowboys is a must. There are only a few teams in the Big 12 who would hurt a team by winning, Oklahoma State is one of those. It is also important for the Bearcats because three out of their next four games are on the road, and all the roadies are against likely tournament teams, including one at No. 3 overall seed Houston. | |
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| at Xavier, 8 p.m. | CBS Sports Network -- Providence is new to the bubble and will have to do well to stay there. The Friars have good wins at home over Creighton, Marquette and Wisconsin, but have been poor away from home and are just 7-9 against the top three quadrants. A win vs. Xavier would improve both of their deficiencies. | |
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| at Indiana, 8:30 p.m. | Big Ten Network, fuboTV (Try for free) -- The Cornhuskers are another Home Court Hero with only two wins away from home all season. A win over the Hoosiers would be a much needed step in the right direction, but it would not rank better than Nebraska's best win away from home, which came at Kansas State. | |
NCAA Tournament locks
Locks based on resume: 11 | Bids secured: 0 | At-large spots remaining: 21
| Conference | Locks | Teams |
|---|---|---|
ACC | 2 | Duke, North Carolina |
Big East | 2 | UConn, Marquette |
Big Ten | 1 | |
Big 12 | 4 | |
Pac-12 | 1 | |
SEC | 1 | |
American | 0 | |
Others | 0 |
Near the cut line
| First 4 Out | Team | Record | NET |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Butler | 16-11 | 61 |
 | Texas A&M | 15-11 | 50 |
 | Oregon | 17-8 | 63 |
 | Seton Hall | 17-9 | 64 |
| Next 4 Out | Team | Record | NET |
|---|---|---|---|
 | Wake Forest | 17-9 | 26 |
| Providence | 17-9 | 60 |
 | Pitt | 17-9 | 56 |
 | Iowa | 16-11 | 62 |
Note – all references to NCAA Tournament selection records and trends based on NET rankings excludes the 2021 tournament. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of non-conference games, those rankings are not reliable enough to be considered.
