Welcome to the first edition of Bubble Watch. Most days, I will have a look at the games coming up with bubble implications. You can see the list of bubble teams at the bottom of the bracket projection page. Since Super Bowl Sunday marked six weeks until Selection Sunday, the bubble will be large and fluid for a while. Teams will go on and off, so do not fret if your team is not listed now. There is plenty of time for teams on the far outside of the bracket to play their way on to it.
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Note – all records that I list include games against Division I teams only. Those are the only games that count to the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
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| at Texas Tech, 9 p.m. (ESPN2) Oklahoma's schedule is better balanced that Texas Tech's, but is lacking quality wins. The Sooners have wins over Minnesota, Texas and Mississippi State, any or all of which could make the tournament, but none are a sure thing. This would be an important win for either team, but Texas Tech needs it more because it is at home. Mississippi State. | |
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| vs. Oklahoma, 9 p.m. (ESPN2) Texas Tech has a couple of nice wins, including victories over Louisville and West Virginia. The main reason the Red Raiders are not in the bracket is that they are only 2-8 against Quadrant 1 teams, which isn't necessarily fatal, but they are also just 5-8 vs Q1-3. That is fatal. No team has ever received an at-large bid with a record that bad against Q1-3. | |
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| at Kentucky, 9 p.m. (ESPN) The Bulldogs have won five out of six to play themselves back into tournament contention. That streak includes their three best wins of the season, especially the one at Florida. However, the statement win is still missing and there a couple of bad losses to make up for. Needless to say, a win at Rupp Arena would make a statement. | |
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| at Michigan, 7 p.m. (ESPN2) This is must-see TV in football season and you would likely not be disappointed if you watched this game tonight. Ohio State was reeling after a victory over Kentucky right before Christmas, but has righted the ship with two straight wins. Different players have been in and out of the lineup lately, which is messing with their chemistry. | |
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| vs. Ohio State, 7 p.m. (BTN) Michigan guard Isaiah Livers suffered a groin injury Dec. 21 and except for a cameo against Illinois, he has not played since. The Wolverines have suffered since then too, losing five of their first six Big Ten games since that injury. They did rebound to win at Nebraska and over Rutgers at Madison Square Garden. Home games are vital in the Big Ten because winning on the road has been so difficult. | |
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| at DePaul, 7 p.m. (ESPN2) Xavier picked up an enormous win at Seton Hall over the weekend to propel itself into the bracket for now. The Musketeers cannot celebrate for long though because the Blue Demons have shown to be tough, if not consistent this season. DePaul has beaten Butler at home and won at Iowa, but has a couple of bad losses that have kept them out of contention for now. | |
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| vs. Auburn, 7 p.m. (SEC Network) Auburn is another team coming off a big win and Arkansas is hoping to catch them napping. Eric Musselman has done a good job in his first year with the Hogs, leading them to a 16-5 record that includes a win at Indiana. Even with that, this would be the Razorbacks' best win of the season, but they'll have to do it without Isaiah Joe, who was No 2 on the team with 16.0 points per game, but underwent knee surgery on Tuesday and will be out indefinitely. | |
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| at Alabama, 7 p.m. (ESPNU) A pair of 12-9 teams will battle it out to stay on the bubble in Tuscaloosa. Tennessee has neutral court wins over VCU and Washington, which was better back in November prior to the loss of guard Quade Green at the beginning of January. VCU is a team Tennessee could ultimately be competing with for a spot in the field, so that win could be big, but the Vols still need better ones than that. A road win at Alabama would be about the same, but all road wins are good wins. | |
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| vs. Tennessee, 7 p.m. (ESPNU) Alabama is a home court hero with just there Q1-2 wins, all at home. The problem is they also have a loss to Penn at home, and that has been hard to shake. If you are going to be a home court hero, you have to keep winning those home games. | |
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| at Georgia Tech, 7 p.m. (ACC Network) The Hokies have a win against Michigan State in the Maui Invitational and not much else. They have lost four out of five and three of those losses are pretty damaging. They also have a very poor non-conference schedule, which is often an eliminator for teams close to the cut line. They have to get hot starting tonight against a Yellow Jacket squad that is not a tournament contender. | |