What we just witnessed was one of the most chaotic weeks of college basketball in recent memory. Twelve of the top 16 teams in my projected bracket one week ago lost this past week. Three of those teams lost twice. A few of those were the result of matchups between two top-16 teams. You would think so many losses would turn the bracket on its head, but that's not what really happens.
When there are that many losses balancing each other out, things tend to stay relatively flat. There will be a little bit of movement within that group, but 14 of last week's top 16 are still in the top 16. Only Purdue (lost at Nebraska) and Notre Dame (lost twice) fell out. There has been some seed shuffling, however.
A lot of this shuffling among this group of teams had to do with the top of the ACC. There is very little separation among Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina and Virginia, each of which has four losses.
Florida State has easily the best collection of wins among the group, but also the worst set of losses. Louisville has the best losses -- FSU and Virginia -- but is a home court hero. North Carolina is kind of in between in terms of the quality of its best wins and losses, and the Tar Heels did beat the Seminoles. Virginia has the fewest wins, but is the best road team. The Cavaliers have beaten Louisville, Notre Dame, Clemson and Cal on the road, but lost at home to FSU and West Virginia. They would be a No. 1 seed if they could defend their home court better.
Factors that don't matter in this discussion are the conference standings and who is "hotter." You could reasonably argue for any order for these teams, but I ended up putting Florida State first, followed immediately by Louisville, UNC and Virginia. There will be a lot more shuffling to come.
Another of the teams that lost twice this week was Kentucky, which lost at Tennessee and at home to Kansas. That loss to the Jayhawks was the Wildcats' second home loss to a highly rated team following a loss earlier to UCLA. Their path to a No. 1 seed is now in serious jeopardy.
Even if Kentucky wins out, its best win will be over North Carolina on a neutral floor, which is great, but its second best win will be... South Carolina? Maybe? UK beat the Gamecocks at home and might see them again in the conference tournament. There is no game at South Carolina this season.
The only other teams the Wildcats have beaten that are in today's bracket are Arkansas and Michigan State, neither of which is a sure bet to make the tournament. They still have a home-and-home with Florida coming, but if South Carolina and the Gators are each 0-2 against Kentucky, and maybe 0-3 in Florida's case, they probably aren't any better than middle-of-the-bracket teams. And in a bracket that has a number of very good teams from the ACC, Big East, Big 12 and Pac-12, it will be difficult for Kentucky to make enough of an impression on the committee to get a spot on that top line with just those wins to hang their hat on.
