Bracketology: Michigan overtakes Arizona for No. 1 overall seed following Wildcats' loss at Kansas
Monday night's top-10 showdown between Arizona and Kansas altered the Bracketology outlook
Michigan overtook Arizona as the No. 1 overall seed in CBS Sports Bracketology following the Wildcats' first loss Monday night at Kansas. The Wolverines, who also have one loss, are claiming the top spot with a profile that includes the No. 1 ranking in a majority of team sheet metrics used by the selection committee.
The Wildcats are now the No. 2 overall seed after a tightly contested 82-78 defeat against the Jayhawks, who were playing without star freshman Darryn Peterson. Arizona led by as much as 11 early in the second half before going cold down the stretch inside a raucous Allen Fieldhouse.
Kansas rose to a No. 2 seed in the CBS Sports Bracketology model, supplanting a Nebraska team that has a huge game of its own on Tuesday against Purdue. The win was just the latest resume-defining victory for the Jayhawks, who also own victories against Tennessee, Iowa State and Texas Tech.
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That KU's win over Arizona came without Peterson, who is the potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, makes it even more impressive. Here is a look at how the CBS Sports Bracketology model views the top two seed lines entering Tuesday's action. Keep scrolling for a link to the field of 68 and for more detailed explanations on the movement prompted by Monday night's big result.
Bracketology top seeds
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Why Arizona isn't No. 1 overall
An argument against Michigan for No. 1 overall could easily center on the difference between the losses suffered by the Wolverines and the Wildcats. Michigan lost at home to Wisconsin — a Quad 2 defeat — whereas Arizona lost on the road against Kansas inside one of college basketball's most hostile venues in a high-end Quad 1 game.
In a hypothetical scenario where both teams arrived at Selection Sunday with one loss, the committee could certainly consider that fact in its evaluation of who to place at No. 1 overall. However, the committee's charge goes far beyond comparing losses.
Michigan has played one fewer game but owns a 16-14 edge in total number of Quad 1/2 victories. The teams have the same number of gold-plated Quad 1A victories (four), and the Wolverines rank No. 1 in most of team sheet metrics the committee will consult when making its decisions.
The Wolverines are tops in predictive metrics like KenPom and Torvik. More importantly, they are No. 1 in resume-based metrics, including the WAB (wins above bubble). Part of the explanation for that can be found in the fact that Arizona has played seven Quad 4 games compared to just three for Michigan.
In a situation where two teams have comparable resumes, the committee could be inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to the team that spent less time feasting on Quad 4 opponents. Look no further than the decision in 2024 to give the final No. 1 seed to North Carolina as opposed to an Iowa State team that many in the Bracketology industry believed was more deserving.
The case for Kansas as a No. 2 seed
A five-loss Kansas team sliding past a two-loss Nebraska team for the final No. 2 seed may understandably be irksome just on principle. Number of losses must matter, right? Well, as we covered Saturday, loss volume is less relevant than you might think. Just ask Miami (Ohio) which is fighting just to be considered for an at-large bid as the last remaining unbeaten team in college basketball.
Numerous factors are at play in the committee's holistic evaluation of how to order teams in the bracket, including both resume and predictive metrics, which can create situations where number of losses would be mostly disregarded. Kansas now has seven Quad 1 wins, which is more than anyone else currently not on the No. 1 seed line, and two more than Nebraska.
The Jayhawks have five wins over teams ranked in side the top 30 of the NET (Arizona, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Tennessee and NC State). By comparison, Nebraska two such victories (Illinois and Michigan State). The Jayhawks also surpassed the Cornhuskers at KenPom following their victory over Arizona.
However, this time of year things are incredibly fluid. A single result can change the picture. As such, the initial projection from the CBS Sports Bracketology model is that Nebraska will return to the No. 2 seed line with a Tuesday night victory over the Boilermakers.
