Bracketology: Michigan surges to No. 1 overall seed ahead of blockbuster college basketball weekend
The Wolverines make a massive leap in our newest CBS Sports Bracketology simulation
When our last Bracketology dropped on Nov. 19, Michigan was 3-0 with close wins over middling high-major foes Wake Forest and TCU. As a result, the Wolverines landed as a projected No. 5 seed before heading to Las Vegas for a showcase opportunity at the Players Era event.
What Michigan accomplished there put college basketball on notice and sent the Wolverines surging to projected No. 1 seed status in our updated CBS Bracketology. Our model, developed by SportsLine guru Jacob Fetner, would have the Wolverines as the top overall seed if the season ended today after they swept through the Vegas event with three blowout wins over San Diego State, Auburn and Gonzaga.
Over the longterm, our Selection Sunday projection still likes Duke to edge Michigan and claim the No. 1 overall seed. But the picture will continue to evolve as results roll in this weekend. Saturday will doubtlessly be consequential in determining the future outlook, as the No. 4 Blue Devils travel to take on No. 7 Michigan State.
That game is just the beginning on a huge Saturday of college hoops. CBS will televise a blockbuster tripleheader beginning with No. 1 Purdue hosting No. 10 Iowa State at noon Eastern, followed by No. 22 Indiana hosting No. 6 Louisville. Later on, No. 13 Tennessee and No. 14 Illinois will square off in Nashville before No. 2 Arizona hosts No. 20 Auburn to cap off the blockbuster day.
All of those games will impact the ever-fluctuating NCAA Tournament bracket outlook. Using a mixture of our model's to-date simulation and predictive future outlook, here's what the projected bracket looks like entering the weekend.
Bracketology top seeds
| Seed | Midwest | East | South | West |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |  |  |  |
| 2 | UConn | BYU | Alabama | Michigan State |
| 3 | Iowa State | Vanderbilt | North Carolina | Gonzaga |
| 4 | Houston | Illinois | Kansas | Louisville |
| 5 | Virginia | Auburn | Georgia | Tennessee |
| 6 | St. John's | Kentucky | Arkansas | Texas Tech |
| 7 | Florida | Nebraska | USC | LSU |
| 8 | Clemson | Utah State | Saint Mary's | TCU |
| 9 | Oklahoma State | Indiana | SMU | UCLA |
| 10 | Iowa | Colorado | NC State | Wisconsin/Saint Louis |
| 11 | Missouri/Baylor | Dayton | Akron | Yale |
| 12 | Colorado State | Utah Valley | McNeese | High Point |
| 13 | Liberty | Northern Colorado | UC Irvine | UNC Wilmington |
| 14 | Bradley | Marist | Arkansas State | Colgate |
| 15 | St. Thomas | Wright State | North Texas | Central Connecticut State |
| 16 | Florida Gulf Coast | Vermont | Samford/Little Rock | Norflk State/Bethune-Cookman |
On the bubble
Last four in
Missouri
Baylor
Wisconsin
Saint Louis
First four out
Seton Hall
Santa Clara
Miami
Oklahoma
Bracketology takeaways
Making sense of Kentucky
Kentucky is 0-3 against high-major opponents, and its best win is over Valparaiso, which is No. 221 in the NET. But entering Friday night's showdown against No. 11 Gonzaga, the No. 18 Wildcats were still in the projected field. Despite UK's obvious flaws, our model remains bullish on Kentucky's chances of accumulating enough quality victories to to receive a respectable seed in the Big Dance. The Wildcats are navigating a poor run of health that has resulted in three projected starters missing extended time. With quality underlying metrics — Kentucky was No. 15 at KenPom entering Friday — and the prospect of better health on the horizon, we expect Mark Pope's squad to right the ship and salvage a poor start.
ACC regaining its footing
One season after the ACC hit a historic NCAA Tournament low with just one of its four tournament teams reaching the second round, the conference is coming back to life early in the 2025-26 season. The league finished a respectable 7-9 in this week's ACC/SEC Challenge with No. 4 Duke taking down No. 14 Florida, Syracuse beating No. 13 Tennessee and No. 17 North Carolina winning at No. 18 Kentucky. When including postseason action, the ACC finished just 20-55 against the other high-major conferences last season. The league has already surpassed that win total with a 25-31 mark entering Friday's action that is highlighted by a 5-3 record against the Big Ten. As a result, the league is on pace to produce its highest number of NCAA Tournament teams since 2021.
Big 12 stands out
The Big 12's 32-17 record against high-major foes puts it head and shoulders above the other leagues in nonconference performance. The surprising part is where some of those victories are coming from. Colorado, TCU, Oklahoma State and UCF are a combined 7-2 against high-major opposition after each were predicted to finish in the bottom half of the league. While the conference's strength is at the top with three of the NET's top 9 teams, it is developing quality depth as well. Just two Big 12 teams (Cincinnati and Utah) sit outside the NET's top 100. The other four high-major conferences each had at least three sub-100 NET teams entering Friday's action.
