Bracketology: No. 2 seeds Houston, UConn, Purdue, Iowa State ready to move up if teams on top line go down
The Big Ten has two teams on the No. 1 seed line for now, but there are many worthy challengers
The race for No. 1 seeds in the 2026 NCAA Tournament is heating up, and this weekend will provide significant data points for a handful of teams jockeying for a spot on the top line. As of Friday, Michigan, Duke, Arizona and Nebraska are No. 1 seeds in CBS Sports Bracketology. But several others aren't far behind and have big games on tap.
Take Houston, for example. Currently a No. 2 seed in our model's projection, the Cougars are 17-1 (5-0 Big 12) and riding an 11-game winning streak. They will have another chance to build their resume on the road against Texas Tech on Saturday. A second victory over the Red Raiders, combined with a loss by any of the No. 1 seeds, would make Houston's case for a promotion compelling.
Also on the Saturday docket for current No. 2 seeds in our model:
- Purdue can pick up arguably its best victory of the season when it hosts Illinois
- UConn can earn its best Big East victory yet and improve to 9-0 in the league when it hosts Villanova
- Iowa State plays what is, for now, a Quad 1 game at Oklahoma State.
Those contests are generally higher-caliber opportunities than what's in store for the No. 1 seeds this weekend. Michigan is the lone team from among the No. 1 seeds in our model facing a team in the CBS Sports Bracketology field. But even the Wolverines' Friday home game against Ohio State is just a Quad 2 contest.
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A surprise loss from a No. 1 seed combined with a big win for any of the No. 2 seeds could create some volatility.
With just seven weeks to go until Selection Sunday, here are the latest results from the CBS Sports Bracketology model.
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Bracketology seeds
The NCAA Tournament field and seeding as projected by SportsLine's Bracketology simulation
| Seed | Midwest | East | West | South |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |  |  |  |
| 2 | Houston | Iowa State | Purdue | UConn |
| 3 | Gonzaga | Illinois | Vanderbilt | Michigan State |
| 4 | Texas Tech | Florida | Virginia | BYU |
| 5 | Louisville | Kansas | Alabama | Arkansas |
| 6 | Saint Louis | Kentucky | St. John's | Georgia |
| 7 | Iowa | North Carolina | Clemson | SMU |
| 8 | Tennessee | Villanova | UCF | Auburn |
| 9 | Wisconsin | Texas A&M | NC State | Stanford |
| 10 | Miami | Ohio State | Saint Mary's | Utah State |
| 11 | UCLA | Seton Hall/Virginia Tech | Missouri/USC | Tulsa |
| 12 | Miami | Yale | Belmont | McNeese |
| 13 | UCLA | Liberty | Hawaii | High Point |
| 14 | St. Thomas | Hofstra | Troy | Mercer |
| 15 | Austin Peay | Marist | Montana State | Oakland |
| 16 | Navy | Tennessee-Martin | LIU/Vermont | Howard/Grambling |
On the bubble
| Last four in | Record | NET |
| Missouri | 13-6 | 68 |
| USC | 14-5 | 55 |
| Seton Hall | 14-5 | 45 |
| Va. Tech | 15-5 | 49 |
| First four out | Record | NET |
| Texas | 11-8 | 43 |
| Okla. St. | 14-5 | 73 |
| Butler | 12-7 | 50 |
| TCU | 12-7 | 46 |
Bracketology takeaways
Virginia doing heavy lifting
The 2025-26 Virginia Cavaliers aren't just breathing life into their own program, they've also brought hope to a couple of others desperately trying to snap NCAA Tournament droughts. With each passing victory for the Cavaliers (16-2, 5-1 ACC), the resumes of Butler and Virginia Tech — both squarely on the bubble — get a little better because of their victories over UVa.
Since the calendar flipped to 2026, the Cavaliers own the nation's best power rating at barttorvik.com. Butler and Virginia Tech should be their biggest fans. The Bulldogs are just 12-7 (3-5 Big East) and have three Quad 2 losses, but are nonetheless lurking on the bubble as one of the CBS Sports Bracketology model's "First Four Out" entering their Friday home game with Marquette. An 80-73 win over Virginia on Nov. 23 at the Greenbrier Tip-Off is to thank.
At the time, it was unclear just how good the Cavaliers would be in coach Ryan Odom's debut campaign. UVa has proved itself to be one of the best teams in the ACC, if not all of college basketball. That's not just a good win for Butler; it now looks like a potential season-defining victory for a program seeking its first Big Dance appearance since 2018.
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Funny since it came in front of 1,209 spectators inside a West Virginia ballroom on an NFL Sunday when only diehard college basketball fans were paying attention. Virginia is also doing some serious work for rival Virginia Tech's resume. Without a 95-85 triple-overtime win win over the Cavaliers from Dec. 31, the Hokies would be on the wrong side of the bubble. Instead, they are in the Last Four entering Saturday's showdown at Louisville.
Conference race tightening up
The race for most bids among the high-major conferences is a dead heat between the Big Ten, ACC and SEC entering the weekend. Each of the three have 10 teams in the field, according to the CBS Sports Bracketology model. While the Big 12 lags behind with seven, it's impressively strong at the top. Six of the Big 12's contingent are slotted as No. 5 seeds or better in the current model. Plus, Oklahoma State and TCU are among the First Four Out, and Baylor and West Virginia also remain in the hunt for at-large bids.
Previously, the SEC led the way with 11 teams in the field, according to our model. But Texas' back-to-back losses against Texas A&M and Kentucky have dropped it to First Four Out territory entering Saturday's game against Georgia.
