Bracketology: No. 1 seeds set for big tests as Michigan vs. Nebraska looms large in NCAA Tournament projection
All four of the No. 1 seeds in the latest CBS Sports Bracketology are facing huge tests early this week
Each of the No. 1 seeds in the latest run of the CBS Sports Bracketology model will be in action against formidable conference opposition early this week, and at least one of them is guaranteed to lose. That's because of two of them will be playing each other on Tuesday night, when Michigan hosts Nebraska in a seismic Big Ten clash.
Nebraska is holding on to the final No. 1 seed as it heads to Ann Arbor to put its undefeated record on the line against the Wolverines. The Cornhuskers are 10.5-point underdogs, which reflects an analytics profile that is lagging behind its resume. With the nation's No. 2 strength of record and as one of two unbeaten high-major teams left along with Arizona, Nebraska's body of work is strong
However, it still is not a top-10 team in any of the analytics-oriented metrics that appear on its NCAA team sheet. In fact, the Cornhuskers rate a paltry 17th in the BPI. Upsetting Michigan on the road would help narrow the disparity between Nebraska's record and its ratings.
But even if Nebraska loses, the CBS Sports Bracketology model projects that it could still remain a No. 1 seed. Taking a road loss against a team as strong as Michigan wouldn't leave much of a mark on the Cornhuskers' resume.
Bracketology top seeds
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Conference breakdown
When it comes to heft at the top of the field, the Big Ten and Big 12 are clearly the top dogs. Those two conferences account for eight of the top 12 spots in the bracket entering Monday night's action.
However, the SEC reclaimed the lead in total number of bids over the weekend as bubble teams Missouri and Texas both picked up conference victories to nudge the conference's tally back to 11.
Also on the rise was the Big 12, which went from seven bids to eight after TCU's road victory over Baylor elevated the Horned Frogs into the field. Falling from 10 bids to nine was the ACC, as Stanford dropped out of the field following a 12-point home loss to Cal. The Big East dropped from four bids to three as Seton Hall fell into "First Four Out" territory following its fourth straight loss.
Rematch rules
Amid conference consolidation and the proliferation of nonconference matchups between high-major schools, the NCAA Tournament selection committee faces challenges when it comes to avoiding regular season rematches. The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket featured three potential second-round games between conference teams, although none of them came to fruition.
The committee will still seek to minimize conference meetings and nonconference rematches, and our model is coded to do the same. However, NCAA bracketing principles permit games between conference teams in the second round, so long as the teams in question played each other just once before the NCAA Tournament. For conference teams that met twice prior to the NCAA Tournament, principles state they should not meet prior to the Sweet 16. If the teams played three times, NCAA bracketing principles state they should not play before the Elite Eight.
With regard to rematches of nonconference games, NCAA bracketing principles state that they should be avoided "in the First Four and first round." The committee will also "attempt to avoid" nonconference rematches in the second round. But the committee has historically prioritized keeping teams on their natural seed line over changing their seed line for the sake of avoiding a rematch.
