Bracketology: Purdue rises to a No. 2 seed, Illinois falls in projected NCAA Tournament seeding
Two overtime games in the Big Ten brought a shakeup in the CBS Sports Bracketology model
A couple of significant Big Ten results from overtime games on Tuesday night led to a shakeup on the No. 2 seed line in CBS Sports Bracketology. Purdue rose from a No. 3 seed to a No. 2 seed following its 80-77 win at Nebraska, and Illinois dropped from a No. 2 seed to a No. 3 seed following its 92-90 home loss to Wisconsin.
The path to get there was anything but smooth for the Boilermakers, who squandered a 22-point lead in the second half. But the end result was a seventh Quad 1 victory and seventh win over a team projected to be an at-large squad in the CBS Sports Bracketology field.
At 20-4 (10-3 Big Ten), Purdue has ample opportunity down the stretch to continue building its resume. Six of its final seven regular season games are against projected NCAA Tournament teams. While there is still a significant gap between the Boilermakers and the No. 1 seeds, they're also a team with a high seeding floor because of what they've accomplished already and because any losses incurred from here on out would likely be Quad 1 or 2 defeats.
Nebraska would have been in position to potentially rise up and claim a No. 2 seed if it had completed the comeback and taken down Purdue. However, the Cornhuskers weren't penalized too harshly and remained a No. 3 seed.
Bracketology top seeds
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Illinois falls
Despite the fact that Illinois (20-5, 11-3 Big Ten) now has five losses, our model is still high on the Illini over the long haul and projects they will rise to the No. 2 line by Selection Sunday. For now, consecutive overtime losses by a combined five points have taken a toll on Illinois' resume. Illinois still rates as the nation's No. 6 team at KenPom. But its No. 9 ranking in wins above bubble (WAB) reflects a resume that is more in line with a No. 3 seed.
Assessing the Atlantic 10's prospects
George Mason entered Tuesday night's game at Richmond within striking distance of the at-large discussion because of its top-50 resume. But after taking an 82-70 Quad 3 loss, the Patriots now have an even thinner margin for error. At just 3-3 over its last six games, George Mason is trending in the wrong direction.
However, all hope is not lost for the Atlantic 10's hopes of producing more than one bid. VCU is entering its Wednesday night game at La Salle in the "First Four Out" category. At 18-6 and 9-2 in the A-10, the Rams are in the hunt as a team that with at least some chance to join Atlantic 10 stalwart Saint Louis (23-1, 11-0) in the field.
However, the surest path for the A-10 to two-bid status after having just one team selected in two of the past three seasons would likely be for someone other than Saint Louis to win the conference tournament. With the Billikens firmly in at-large territory, this league could end up producing a "bid thief." George Mason and VCU are both good enough to enter the conference tournament on the wrong side of the bubble, hold the trophy on the end and then be dangerous in the Big Dance.
