College basketball betting: Expert shares best value bets to reach Final Four, win national championship
SportsLine's Jeff Hochman breaks down his favorite value bets to make the Final Four and win it all in 2026
Selection Sunday is right around the corner, and NCAA Tournament odds are tightening. While most bettors gravitate toward picking the national champion, targeting teams to make the Final Four can be a smarter strategy. Those wagers pay out after just three wins, and you can spread your bets across multiple teams to increase your chances.
Championship bets still have strong appeal, particularly if you're drawn to a longshot or a team peaking at the right time. Combining both types of wagers covers you if a team gets hot and advances, while also putting you in line for the largest payout if they win it all. Below are my favorite "value" picks in each market. I left Michigan at -150 to make the Final Four off my list, even though they have the ability to win it all, as you'll see below. Keep an eye out for roster changes -- one major injury can ruin a bet.
All odds via DraftKings.
Best value picks to reach the Final Four
Florida Gators (+250)
The defending national champions are currently "on a heater," winning 12 of their last 13 games -- most by double-digit margins. Todd Golden has constructed arguably the best frontcourt depth in the country with Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Thomas Haugh.
February is when Florida's momentum traditionally builds. They are currently a top-six KenPom squad, and the addition of transfer Boogie Fland has stabilized a backcourt that previously struggled with turnovers. The Gators are overwhelming -1200 favorites to win the SEC regular-season title, which says a lot about how dominant they've been all year.
They have size, depth, and athleticism at every position, and they play with a confidence you can feel. This group is built for a deep March run once again, and I wouldn't bet against them.
UConn Huskies (+400)
The Huskies look set for a No. 2 seed, but their makeup screams deep tournament run. Even with a few recent losses, UConn's defense is still top-notch, and Dan Hurley has proven he can get a team rolling in March -- just look at those 12 straight covers during their back-to-back title runs. The veteran trio of Alex Karaban, Silas Demary Jr. and Solo Ball gives them experience and leadership.
UConn's path through the Big East is also less brutal than what teams in the Big 12 or Big Ten face. At +400, you're really putting your faith in coaching and rebounding -- two things that tend to matter most this time of year. Why not pick them to win it all? Their 69.8% free-throw shooting worries me. Against the best, that's the kind of detail that can end a season.
Kansas Jayhawks (+550)
A month ago, Kansas struggled with consistency, but Bill Self has refined his rotations to lead the team on an eight-game winning streak. The Jayhawks possess an elite defensive efficiency (Rank 9) and a senior-heavy lineup that brings necessary experience to the tournament.
At +550, this is a high-value "buy low" opportunity. The Jayhawks' ceiling is contingent on the health of star freshman Darryn Peterson, but they have proven they can win without him, including an upset of previously unbeaten Arizona. If Peterson is fully healthy by March, grabbing 5.5-to-1 odds on a Bill Self-coached team to win three games feels like tremendous value.
Saint Louis Billikens (+2800)
If you're looking for a big return on a small bet, Saint Louis is the ultimate Cinderella candidate. Led by Robbie Avila -- nicknamed "Larry Nerd" -- the team holds the 23rd spot in KenPom and boasts an offense that hits threes at a 40% rate while dominating at the rim.
The path won't be easy for this mid-major, but they excel in the mid-range, protect the ball, and rarely make costly mistakes. At +2800, picking Saint Louis is a bold move that could shake up the tournament. I called them a dark horse on the Early Edge, and I stand by it. With odds like these, it's worth a shot -- especially since we haven't seen a true dark horse make a deep run in quite some time.
Top value picks to win national championship
Michigan Wolverines (+320)
Michigan has become the standout team of the 2025-26 season, currently sitting atop the NET, RPI, and KenPom rankings. Under Dusty May, the Wolverines lead the nation in scoring margin (+22.5) and have posted a flawless 10-0 record in Quad 1 games. Michigan's impressive size and relentless pace present a challenge for any opponent across a full 40 minutes. Yaxel Lendeborg spearheads a Wolverines transition offense that relentlessly pushes the pace and averages 90.6 points per game.
As the consensus pick for the No. 1 overall seed, Michigan is well positioned for the smoothest route to Indianapolis. I would be surprised if they don't reach the Final Four, and the +320 odds to win the championship offer solid value.
Florida Gators (+1300)
The Florida Gators enter the final stretch of the season as one of the most compelling value plays on the board at +1300. As the reigning national champions, Todd Golden's squad has demonstrated the talent and tactical depth required to become the first back-to-back winners since UConn's 2023-24 run.
By betting Florida at +1300 now, you are securing a premium price on a team that ranks as a top-five unit in advanced efficiency since the start of conference play and possesses the most physical frontcourt in the tournament field. This line will not last much longer, so get down ASAP.
Illinois Fighting Illini (+1300)
I love the value this team offers at its current odds. The main reason to back the Illini is their historically efficient offense. Illinois owns the nation's top adjusted offensive efficiency rating, according to both KenPom and Bart Torvik. Averaging 84.8 points per game, they deploy a system that wears down opponents with up-tempo transition play and elite floor spacing. Even in their losses -- including two in overtime -- the games have been close.
Illinois features a remarkable mix of freshman talent that has consistently exceeded expectations. Consistency on defense has been Illinois' only major flaw this season. However, the return of senior guard Kylan Boswell from a fractured hand has fundamentally changed the team's defensive profile. In his first game back, Boswell spearheaded an elite defensive effort that held Indiana to just 40.8% shooting and 25% from the 3-point line. Since his return, Illinois has jumped to No. 23 nationally in defensive efficiency, creating the balanced "top 25 offense/top 25 defense" profile that historically characterizes national champions.
By betting on Illinois at +1300 now, you are securing value on a team that currently possesses the best offense in college basketball and is just now reaching full defensive health at the perfect time for a March run. While Illinois is also available at +250 to make the Final Four, this current wager offers superior value.
