Bracketology love for Indiana? Making the case for Hoosiers' NCAA Tournament bid
Breaking down the numbers for Indiana ahead of Selection Sunday
Indiana's late-season slide under first-year coach Darian DeVries has most bracketologists projecting the Hoosiers out of the NCAA Tournament field entering this week's Big Ten Tournament. Despite finishing 18-13 overall in a competitive league with a NET ranking of No. 37, Indiana is being looked over among other bubble teams after peaking too early this season.
The Hoosiers won their 17th game of the season on Feb. 9 against Oregon behind 41 points from Lamar Wilkerson, but dropped five of their last six contests ahead of Wednesday night's second-round Big Ten Tournament affair against Northwestern or Penn State. If they get past the matchup, Indiana will play No. 7-seeded Purdue on Thursday, an opportunity to add another crucial Quad 1 over the Boilermakers.
Indiana's current Quad 1 record sits at 3-11, which is tied for the second-most losses among teams in the top 50 of the NET rankings. A combined mark of 15-2 against competition from the other quads is impressive, however, and shows the Hoosiers have routinely handled their business with opponents they should've beaten this season, sans Northwestern on Feb. 24.
"I think, obviously, we want to play well," DeVries said after Saturday's loss to Ohio State, which was marred by a 17-point halftime deficit. "We want to put ourselves in a position to win the game, and for us to have a stretch like that, it's certainly disappointing. But our guys are going to continue to battle, that's all I know."
Indiana's case
Per the latest KenPom rankings, Indiana is 41st, ahead of projected NCAA Tournament teams like SMU (No. 43), TCU (No. 44), Missouri (No. 50) and UCF (No. 53). Much of that is due to a strength of schedule slotted inside the top 35 nationally compared to those other teams. Indiana also has a WAB (Wins Above Bubble) score of 0.15, which is just ahead of SMU and Stanford, teams currently projected as two of the last four in.
Instead of ditching Indiana after its late-season swoon, consider the Hoosiers' top wins — Purdue, at UCLA, Wisconsin and one over Kansas State in the non-conference. Indiana is included in 40 of 79 bracket projections entering conference championship week per Bracketmatrix.com and is a No. 11 seed in all of them.
As you can see, the Hoosiers essentially have a 50-50 shot right now to reach the NCAA Tournament, according to prognosticators.
The good news? Despite Indiana's loss to Ohio State, eight other bubble teams played Saturday, and all failed to win, which should result in no change associated with the Hoosiers' placement at the back of the at-large line in the eyes of the NCAA Tournament's selection committee.
Indiana ranks 46th nationally in strength of record, 36th in BPI and No. 29 in Torvik, all important pieces of the metrics puzzle used in determining the NCAA Tournament field.
Teams to keep an eye on this week if you're an Indiana fan include SMU, Missouri, Auburn, Virginia, Cincinnati, California, New Mexico and Texas, among others. If any of those teams go on a deep run in their respective conference tournaments and the Hoosiers fail to replicate that success, it's going to be an uphill climb this weekend when final judgment is decided.
