Bracketology: Michigan State slips in 2026 NCAA Tournament projection, Wisconsin poised to continue to rise
Here is the latest NCAA Tournament projection from the CBS Sports Bracketology model
Wisconsin is shaping up to be the sort of team that a No. 1 or No. 2 seed would dread seeing in their pod when the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed next month. The Badgers' 92-71 win over Michigan State on Friday night only added to their growing reputation as dragon slayers in the Big Ten.
The loss dropped the Spartans from a No. 3 seed in the CBS Sports Bracketology model to a No. 4 seed. Wisconsin is now the best-ranked No. 8 seed in the field and is well-positioned to rise once the full rundown of results from Saturday and Sunday are factored into the model.
Coming just three days after an upset win at Illinois, the 21-point drubbing of the Spartans was another indicator of how potent Wisconsin can be offensively. A program that used to play slow and with an interior focus now plays with tempo a quick 3-point trigger. Friday night marked the fifth time the Badgers have hit 15 or more 3-pointers in a game this season.
The guard duo of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell is performing as one of the best in all of college basketball. They combined for 53 points against Michigan State, and both rank among the top-10 scorers in the Big Ten. Again, that's a team no well-seeded team would want fo face in the second round.
Heading into a big Saturday of action, here's the breakdown of where things stand along the top lines in CBS Sports Bracketology.
Bracketology top seeds
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Wisconsin's rise
All three of Wisconsin's marquee league victories (vs. Michigan State, at Illinois and at Michigan) have come in one of those 15+ 3-point performances. By contrast, this team is 3-5 when making fewer than 10 shots from beyond the arc. Living and dying by the 3-pointer is a notoriously risky way to live, but it has proven effective as of late in resurrecting the Badgers from a shaky start to their 2025-26 season.
Wisconsin's at-large prospects looked murky after a 7-4 start that included losses to TCU, Nebraska and Villanova. At the time, though, it was unclear just how good those teams truly were. Nebraska and Villanova and are projected to make the field as at-large teams. TCU is a bubble team that has shown the ability to slay giants. The Badgers are 9-7 in Quads 1 and 2 and unbeaten in Quads 3 and 4. Following its win over the Spartans, Wisconsin is up to No. 25 in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), which is a critical resume metric used by the selection committee. The Badgers are also on the rise in predictive analytics.
WAB measures how many wins a team has on the season vs. how many wins an average bubble team would have vs. the same schedule.
Bracketology Bubble Watch: Texas A&M hanging onto spot in field of 68; TCU vs. Oklahoma State has high stakes
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Michigan State stalling
Michigan State has lost three of its last four games since starting 19-2. Now 20-5 (10-4 Big Ten), the Spartans have stalled out a bit. That's not entirely uncommon for this program. A year ago, Michigan State started 18-2, but then dropped three of its first four games in February against mid-tier Big Ten opposition.
From there, the Spartans won seven straight to close the regular season and beat six NCAA Tournament teams in the process. The ride didn't end until the Elite Eight. You can never count out a team coached by Tom Izzo, and these Spartans will have ample opportunity to get back onto the No. 3 seed line. If they close the regular season like they did last season, a No. 2 seed could still be on the table as well.
