Bracketology: Houston squanders chance to validate itself as fourth No. 1 seed as UConn elevates
Monday night's blockbuster Big 12 battle altered the race for the fourth No. 1 seed as we inch closer toward March
Houston squandered a golden opportunity to validate itself as the fourth No. 1 seed in NCAA Tournament projections on Monday night when the No. 2 Cougars lost 70-67 at No. 6 Iowa State after leading by 10 late in the second half.
While a close road loss against an elite opponent didn't have a significant impact on Houston's selection metrics, this one was about opportunity cost. Houston had the opportunity to show the country that it deserves to be on the No. 1 line during the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee's bracket preview, which airs Saturday on CBS at 12:30 p.m. ET. It couldn't finish the job.
That Houston's three losses have come by a combined 10 points against three great opponents away from home will matter little when the selection committee is comparing Houston's resume to UConn's this week. Resume is king, and the Huskies have a better resume entering their Wednesday game against Creighton.
The Cougars are still firmly in the hunt to be a No. 1 seed. But, for today, they have dropped back to the No. 2 line.
Bracketology top seeds
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Why UConn is a No. 1 seed
If you woke up this morning, searched "college basketball NET rankings" and saw UConn at No. 10, you might think the Huskies deserve a No. 3 seed. If the NET was the selection committee's top seeding tool, then perhaps you'd be right.
But it's not. When it comes to deciding who belongs on the No. 1 seed line, the committee is more likely to use a "resume" metric such as Wins Above Bubble (WAB) as a guide than it is to lean on a "predictive" metric like NET, which incorporates victory margin and efficiency metrics.
UConn's resume makes it deserving of a No. 1 seed. The Huskies own wins over Illinois, Kansas and Florida and are holding steady at No. 3 in WAB amid a 14-1 start to Big East play. The Huskies rank behind only Michigan and Duke in WAB, and they are also highly regarded in KPI (5th) and Strength of Record (3rd), which are the other resume-based metrics on official NCAA team sheets.
This creates a clear distinction between the Huskies and a strong group of teams on their heels that is headlined by Houston, Purdue and Iowa State.
Purdue vs. Michigan stakes
Tuesday night's showdown between No. 1 Michigan and No. 7 Purdue is banger of a Big Ten battle that will require the nation's top-ranked team to navigate a hostile environment. It's also a likely must-win if Purdue hopes to eventually reach No. 1 seed status. The Boilermakers' schedule down the stretch is relatively light, meaning this is their best opportunity to add some heft to their resume. If the Wolverines lose, the initial projection from the CBS Sports Bracketology model is that they would remain the No. 1 overall seed. Regardless, we have Saturday's game between Duke and Michigan to anticipate as a showdown that will also impact the picture on the No. 1 seed line.
