Bracketology True or False: Will Auburn or Indiana get in? Is Kansas a No. 5 seed? Will the ACC get nine bids?
Our staff chime in on the hottest Bracketology debates entering conference tournament week
With Selection Sunday for the 2026 NCAA Tournament less than a week out, the committee will soon begin the exhaustive process of fielding, seeding and bracketing the field of 68. It's a gargantuan task complicated by myriad factors that creates an untold number of fascinating debates.
How do you properly seed a Miami (Ohio) team that has 31 wins and solid resume metrics but a lagging profile in predictive metrics? How should the committee evaluate a North Carolina team that will be without leading scorer and rebounder Caleb Wilson for the Big Dance?
Then, there is the bubble. It's a chaotic mess filled with teams that played vastly different schedules. Perhaps the emergence of bid thieves will alter the bubble calculus in some way, but there's no guarantee on what the at-large cut line will look like in just a few days.
Before high-major conference tournament results start rolling in, our staff decided to tackle some of the biggest looming questions with true/false predictions on topics that driving the conversation heading into March Madness.
Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model's latest bracket at the Bracketology hub
True or false: Miami (Ohio) will be a double-digit seed?
Verdict: True
TRUE: And I am only saying true because I am going to predict (and I very much want to be wrong) that Miami will take its first loss of the season in the MAC bracket. As a result, I think the RedHawks wind up on the 10-line on Selection Sunday. They certainly don't deserve to be close to Dayton, I can tell you that. The bubble is as messy as any year in recent memory, and Miami U is going to go in with a maximum of one loss and a top-40 WAB/SOR (if not close to top-30). So, double-digit seed, but easily in the field. -- Matt Norlander (senior college basketball writer)
True or false: Vanderbilt deserves to be a No. 4 seed ahead of Kansas in CBS Sports Bracketology?
Verdict: True
Vandy has a clear advantage over Kansas right now. Vandy has the SOR advantage, is almost equal in WAB, and has a solid edge in TRK and KenPom. While fans might argue that Kansas played without Darryn Peterson for a good chunk of the season, they were pretty much the same team record-wise without him. Vandy, on the other hand, you can argue is a much better team when Duke Miles plays. Two of Vandy's more disappointing losses (home vs Oklahoma and at Missouri) came without Miles.
The big argument I will make for Vandy is something that stuck with me from the mock selection in Indianapolis last month. Clark Kellogg said he values road wins almost more than anything else. Vandy is 8-4 on the road and 3-0 in neutral games. Kansas is 5-6 on the road and 4-1 in neutral games. Kansas won't be playing in Phog Allen the rest of the season. Vandy has shown it can win in chaotic environments — beating Tennessee this weekend further proves that — and Kansas hasn't consistently shown that they can. I give a solid pre-conference tournament edge to Vandy. -- Jacob Fetner (lead Bracketology modeler)
True or false: We will get more than one bid thief in the 2026 NCAA Tournament
Verdict: False
The MAC is ripe to produce a bid thief since Miami (Ohio) is likely destined for an at-large bid but not necessarily projected to win the league tournament. Akron is the most likely bid burglar and could be a dangerous team in the Big Dance. That's one. But will we get another?
Attention should turn to the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West. The A10 Tournament favorites are Saint Louis and VCU, both of whom are currently in the CBS Sports Bracketology field. My bet is that either the Billikens or Rams emerge as the tournament champion, which means no bid thief there.
The deciding factor would then be the Mountain West Tournament. The potential at-large contingent from the league looks like it's down to Utah State (a lock) and New Mexico (currently in the First Four Out). But if the Lobos reach the Mountain West title game, they might be a viable at-large team and longer neatly classified as a bid thief. Therefore, I'll say there won't be a bid thief from the Mountain West, either. -- David Cobb (college basketball writer)
True or false: Auburn and Indiana. Big brands. Divisive resumes. At least one will make the NCAA Tournament?
Verdict: False
If Auburn beats Mississippi State in the first round of the SEC Tournament, which is no guarantee, it will have to play No. 5 seed Tennessee in the second round. It's hard to imagine the Tigers winning consecutive games at this point, but that's probably the minimum requirement. It's a similar story for Indiana, which will open against either Penn State or Northwestern. The Hoosiers would need to win that game and then beat a Wisconsin team that has some pop. Even if there's just one bid thief (see above), that could be enough to keep both Auburn and Indiana out if neither team gets hot this week. -- Cobb
True or false: North Carolina should be docked a seed since Caleb Wilson is done for the year?
Verdict: True (with context)
The committee has reiterated that context matters. If that's the case, Wilson's injury should dock UNC's seeding outlook but not drastically. One important factor here is that the committee has a significant sample size to judge the Tar Heels without Wilson. UNC played seven games without the star freshman in the lineup and went 5-2 with wins over Virginia Tech and Clemson and road losses to NC State and Duke.
If the committee docks Carolina, it must remain consistent for every season-ending injury to a high-leverage starter. So that means teams like BYU (Richie Saunders), Texas Tech (JT Toppin), SMU (B.J. Edwards), Kentucky (Jaland Lowe) and Gonzaga (Braden Huff) should also be slightly docked in the scrubbing process. If this is the path the committee chooses, it can't pick and choose which injuries matter or don't. -- Isaac Trotter (college basketball writer)
True or false: Nine ACC teams will make the ACC Tournament?
Verdict: True
Let's start with the locks: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Miami, Louisville, Clemson, and NC State. Then, you have Cal, Stanford and SMU firmly on the bubble entering the final week. SMU, Cal and Stanford are right next to each other in the WAB rankings. My guess is SMU gets in the field, leaving Cal and Stanford near the cut line. My current lean would be that Cal gets in. There's going to be work to do at the ACC Tournament this week, but the Golden Bears should be in.
That would mean the ACC gets nine teams in the field. There are bound to be bid thieves, which could derail the league from getting nine teams in the NCAA Tournament. Still, flirting with this number of teams in the Big Dance after a lackluster last few seasons as a whole for the ACC would be a massive win. -- Cameron Salerno (college basketball writer)
