Bracketology winners and losers: UConn, Houston fumble chance at No. 1 seed before Selection Sunday

Championship Saturday in college basketball delivered the goods with 11 conference tournaments winding to a close as the countdown until Selection Sunday came to a dramatic end. Automatic bids flew off the shelves around the country, and the overall Bracketology picture continued to evolve.

Two of the day's biggest losers were Houston and UConn. Both squandered golden opportunities to stake their claim for the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament by losing in their respective conference tournament title games. The Cougars fell 79-74 to Arizona in the Big 12 championship, while UConn was not competitive in a 72-52 loss to St. John's in the Big East title game.

As a result, Florida will head into Selection Sunday projected to be the fourth No. 1 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology. The Gators entered the day with the nation's second-longest winning streak at 12 games, but turned in perhaps their worst effort of the season in a 91-74 loss to Vanderbilt. The Commodores will be seeking their first SEC Tournament title since 2012 on Sunday against Arkansas, while the Gators will be left to wait and see if they did enough to land on the top line of the bracket when the field of 68 is revealed.

CBS Sports Bracketolgy hub: Latest updated bracket, field of 68 and Bubble Watch

While a few more conference tournament title games still await on Sunday, 99% of the precincts are reporting in terms of the data that will underpin the selection committee's decisions. Here is a glimpse at some of the top winners and losers from a consequential Saturday.

Brackets are here! Get your pools ready and enter our Bracket Challenge for your chance to win a dream trip to the 2027 Final FourⓇ.

Winner: Duke maintains edge for No. 1 overall seed

Duke edged Virginia 74-70 in a thrilling ACC Tournament title game. The win could be enough to earn the Blue Devils the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, as the Blue Devils will retain the top spot in CBS Sports Bracketology entering Selection Sunday. Arizona and Michigan are continuing to provide a strong push against the Blue Devils for that distinction, but Duke never flinched in the ACC Tournament -- even while playing without a pair of starters. 

While the committee could choose to dock Duke for a potential season-ending injury to starting guard Caleb Foster, the emergence of Cayden Boozer helped soften the blow of Foster's absence for the Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament. Boozer scored 16 points against Virginia, and Isaiah Evans scored 20 as the duo helped atone for an uncharacteristically inefficient performance from Naismith Award frontrunner Cameron Boozer. – David Cobb

Winner: Atlantic 10's best-case scenario could be reality

The Atlantic 10 could be a three-bid league, which would be a best-case outcome for the conference and a nightmare scenario for non-A10 bubble teams. The vision came one step closer to reality on Saturday when Saint Louis lost to Dayton in the semifinals and VCU beat Saint Joseph's.&. Had the Billikens won the A10 Tournament and had VCU lost to St. Joe's, the A10 would have been a one-bid league. But if Dayton beats VCU in the title game on Sunday, the Rams will still have a decent at-large case along with Saint Louis. In that scenario, the Flyers would be a bid thief. 

If you don't want to see struggling high-major programs get at-large bids, you should be rooting for Dayton. There is no guarantee VCU will get in with a loss. But if that's the way it goes, the A10 will be a three-bid league for the first time since 2018. – Cobb

Loser: Mountain West's worst-case scenario could be a reality

It's an opposite vibe on the opposite coast. San Diego State has underperformed by every metric this season, and it will not have a comfortable Selection Sunday after a 73-62 loss to Utah State in the Mountain West Tournament championship game. San Diego State had 14 costly giveaways in the loss.

The Aztecs are right on the cut line in every metric. San Diego State sits just inside the top-50 in Wins Above Bubble. It's just inside the top 50 in predictive metrics like Bart Torvik. It is the first team out in CBS Sports' latest bracketology update. There is a real chance that Utah State is the only Mountain West participant in the NCAA Tournament. That hasn't happened for the league since 2017. – Isaac Trotter

Winner: Bubble teams who flopped

Texas wet the bed in its SEC Tournament opener. SMU flunked its big ACC Tournament test against Louisville. Missouri couldn't get over the hump in its SEC Tournament opener.

But all three of those teams are breathing a smidge easier tonight after Utah State didn't gift-wrap a bid to a bid-stealer in the Mountain West and the Ole Miss miracle run in the SEC Tournament was cut short by Arkansas. That could be the difference between a good Sunday or a terrible one. – Trotter

Winner: St. John's shows just how much progress it's made

St. John's was embarrassed by UConn in a 32-point beatdown on Feb. 25. Just 17 days later, the Johnnies flipped the script by pancaking UConn, 72-52.

It was an unequivocal splattering, and it came with the Big East Tournament title on the line.

St. John's is expected to stay on the No. 5 line, but it does show the progress that this group has made. Bryce Hopkins is playing his best basketball at the biggest moment. He delivered 18 points, five rebounds and two dimes. Dillon Mitchell was the second-most disruptive player on the floor, totaling nine points, nine boards, three dimes, two steals and a block. Oh, and Zuby Ejiofor did Zuby Ejiofor things with 18 points, nine rebounds, seven blocks, three steals and two assists.

St. John's was the more connected team. St. John's was the more athletic team. And the debate is over: St. John's is the Big East's best team, even if it won't get a better seed than Dan Hurley's Huskies on Selection Sunday. – Trotter

Loser: Florida misses out on SEC Tournament title repeat

One of the biggest storylines entering the weekend was who would be the final No. 1 seed in a race that included Florida,  Duke, Michigan and Arizona. The latter three are well on their way to being on the top line on Selection Sunday. But there is debate about who the final No. 1 seed will be. Florida was in the driver's seat to be that team before suffering a loss against Vanderbilt in the SEC semifinals. The Gators still have a case for being the final No. 1 seed, but it will be an uphill battle. – Cameron Salerno

Winner: Arkansas stops Ole Miss from being a bid thief

Fans of teams on the bubble breathed a sigh of relief when the buzzer sounded in the SEC Tournament semifinal clash between Ole Miss and Arkansas. Ole Miss, the SEC's No. 15 seed, was on a remarkable run after winning three games in three days to reach the semifinals. Of course, the Rebels have no at-large case, so the only way Chris Beard's team could get in was by winning the conference title. 

That didn't happen. The Rebels pushed the Razorbacks into overtime behind a scoring surge from AJ Storr, but Arkansas escaped with a 93-90 win. Had the Rebels gone all the way, it would've gone down as one of the greatest and most unlikely conference runs in recent memory. Alas, bubble teams have one less team to worry about. – Salerno

Winner: Fran McCaffery is one win away

Former Iowa coach Fran McCaffery didn't stay out of the game for long after his 15-year run with the Hawkeyes ended after last season. He immediately landed the job at Penn, his alma mater, and he's got the Quakers one win away from going to the Big Dance for the first time since 2018. Penn outlasted Harvard 62-60 in an overtime thriller during the Ivy League semifinals on Saturday. The Quakers will have to slay a strong Yale team on Sunday, but an automatic bid to the Big Dance is within reach. – Cobb

Winner: The Yax Attack delivers his signature moment 

Yaxel Lendeborg has said repeatedly that coming to Michigan has led to "the best year of his life." He punctuated a special season with a game-winning triple with 0.3 seconds left to push Michigan past rough-and-tumble Wisconsin and into the Big Ten Tournament championship game. – Trotter

Winner: UCLA gets promising injury news

UCLA star forward Tyler Bilodeau (knee) and guard Donovan Dent (calf) will be good to go for next week's NCAA Tournament, even though they were sidelined in UCLA's tight loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. Bilodeau and Dent were both held out for precautionary reasons and told reporters that they expect to play next week. It's a promising development for a Bruins squad that has transformed into a top-five offense since January 1. – Trotter

Loser: A fun Tulsa season crashes to a halt

One of the best seasons in Tulsa history will end without an NCAA Tournament appearance. The Golden Hurricanes fell to Wichita State, 81-68, in the American semifinals. A first-half shoulder injury to star forward David Green and foul trouble for fellow big man Tyler Behrend proved too much to overcome. – Trotter

Loser: UConn squanders its chance to earn No. 1 seed

UConn entered Saturday evening in a prime position to secure a No. 1 seed after Florida lost to Vanderbilt and Houston lost to Arizona. The Huskies didn't take advantage of the opportunity, and it might cost them on Selection Sunday. In our latest Bracketology projections at CBS Sports, UConn will fall to a No. 2 seed. In fact, UConn would be behind Houston for the top No. 2 seed as far as official seeding goes. – Salerno

Winner: Scary South Florida looks mighty impressive

Joseph Pinion and Wes Enis drained a combined 10 triples and finished with 24 apiece to lead South Florida into the AAC Tournament championship game with an 86-64 romp over Charlotte. Stud big man Izaiyah Nelson added 16 points and eight rebounds.

There's a ton of noise around coach Bryan Hodgson's future. Both Providence a and Syracuse are certainly prepping to make major offers, but Hodgson has a team that can do major damage in March. The red-hot, dynamic Bulls have now won 10 in a row and haven't lost since January. They are 40 minutes away from punching their ticket, but Wichita State's flamethrower Kenyon Giles won't go down without unloading the clip. – Trotter

Winner: Two-bid MAC? Two-bid MAC!

Akron erased a 12-point hole and Shammah Scott delivered the game-winning 3-pointer with six seconds left to send the Zips past Toledo, 79-76, and into the NCAA Tournament. 

Akron is in. Miami University looks poised to be in. That means we're on the verge of a two-bid MAC for the first time since 1999. 

Scott's game-winner was something you just have to see. Ice. Cold. — Trotter