College basketball futures: Expert names best championship bet, value pick and his team to avoid
College basketball expert Thomas Casale takes a close look at the NCAA Tournament futures and gives his best bets
The NCAA Tournament is just over a month away, so it's a good time to look at men's college basketball championship futures. Arizona (+480) and Michigan (+500) are the two favorites to win it all at FanDuel Sportsbook, followed by Duke (+700). Because Arizona and Michigan are a combined 45-2 and have been considered the two top teams for most of the season, it's created some value in the college basketball championship futures market.
Here are a couple of teams to bet and one to avoid with a month to go in the regular season. All odds are from FanDuel.
Best bet: Kansas Jayhawks (+1500)
Kansas is rolling right now, and Bill Self is showing why he is one of the best coaches in the country. A month ago, I wanted nothing to do with this team. It struggled to find consistency on offense and I wasn't sure if the Jayhawks had the right mix of players. Since then, Self figured out his rotations and Kansas has won eight straight with victories over Arizona, Iowa State, BYU and Texas Tech.
While Self deserves a lot of the credit, so does future lottery pick Darryn Peterson. Peterson has shown why some consider him to be the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft with impressive performances against BYU and Texas Tech recently. However, another reason to be high on the Jayhawks is they are 9-2 without Peterson in the lineup, including a win over No. 1 and previously unbeaten Arizona on Monday.
And let's not overlook the Jayhawks' elite defense. Kansas ranks ninth in defensive efficiency, sixth in two-point field percentage, and 20th in three-point field goal percentage on KenPom. The Jayhawks held six of their last eight opponents below 70 points entering Saturday's matchup with Iowa State.
Kansas has a tough remaining schedule with games against Iowa State, Arizona and Houston on deck, so you might be able to get a better number if you wait. However, I think anything between +1500 and +2000 is good value for a Jayhawks team peaking at the right time.
Best value: Purdue Boilermakers (+2500)
Purdue hit a three-game skid in late January, but it appears the Boilermakers are back on track heading into the stretch run of the Big Ten schedule. Purdue has won three in a row, including an overtime victory at Nebraska in a game it controlled for most of the way.
The thing I like about the Boilermakers is they are elite offensively and good enough defensively. Purdue ranks third in offensive efficiency and 23rd in defensive efficiency. Compare that to a team like Alabama, who is also an elite offensive basketball team but ranks a distant 65th in defensive efficiency. The Tide's defense simply isn't good enough to win a title.
Purdue is a veteran team that rebounds, shoots well from the perimeter and doesn't turn the ball over. Those are all qualities I look for in the NCAA Tournament. Another positive is the Boilermakers have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and been in a lot of close games. Stuff like that matters in a one-and-done setting. My argument against Gonzaga over the years is it plays very few close games over the final two months of the season, and that hurts the Bulldogs come tournament time.
I know the narrative about Matt Painter, but the past two years the Boilermakers reached the title game and lost a 62-60 slugfest to Houston in the Sweet 16. I think this Purdue squad is flying a bit under the radar and has the ingredients to make a deep run.
Team to avoid: Kentucky Wildcats (+8000)
It might be tempting to grab a preseason top 10 team at +8000 right now. However, history not only says Kentucky won't make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, it suggests the Wildcats could be going home early.
Kentucky is 8-1 in its last nine games. There is no denying the Wildcats are playing much better basketball than they were earlier in the season, although the team still has issues that are likely to trip them up in the NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky ranks 40th in offensive efficiency and 33rd in defensive efficiency on KenPom. One metric that has been the most accurate at predicting the national championship is teams that rank top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency. It's hard for teams to win it all if they rank outside the top 20 in one of those categories. Rank outside the top 20 in both, and winning a title is close to impossible.
The Wildcats are still a talented team, so it's not out of the question they could buck the trends and make a run in March. However, I will likely be fading the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament. They have the profile of a team that will get beat in the first two rounds.
