Here we are again, a season up around the bend, and so we are forced to look at the coaches who need to win big to keep their jobs. The so-called hot seat. As I always say/write: No joy is derived from researching, compiling or posting a list like this. Optimism is supposed to dominate October in college hoops. For the most part, it does. Still, plenty of fan bases are out there, and they are either eager to start anew, or they're ready, willing and embracing a season of decisiveness. For some coaches, an NCAA Tournament appearance is enough to keep a job. Others need more than just that. For some, it's merely getting above .500.
The good (or bad, depending on your point of view) with this list is, it's never 100 percent. There will be coaches listed below who win enough to stay on for next season and beyond. But the list is also never o-fer. Some of these men will be forced to move on by the late winter. I've gotta say, it is not a particularly huge year for hot-seat enthusiasts. A lot of big programs are in comfortable or thriving spots with their current coaches.
Also, I don't consider interim gigs -- read: Maurice Joseph at George Washington -- for this exercise.
Here's a heap of coaches who more than likely need to have big years to ensure continued employment at their current schools.
- Record at Missouri, record in the SEC: 19-44 | 6-31
- Last NCAA Tournament appearance: N/A
Missouri is a top-30 program, historically, in college hoops. It's in a small cluster of the best schools to never make a Final Four (only BYU and Xavier have more NCAA Tournament appearances without one). Anderson did not inherit an easy situation, taking over the Tigers after Frank Haith left plenty to pick up. But the program has not had any forward progress through two years under Anderson. Now, in year three, an NCAA Tournament isn't necessary, but getting to .500 probably is. And few think Missouri has the personnel to pull that off this season. Anderson, a Mizzou alumnus, won more than 75 percent of his games as D-II coach across an 11-year period prior to getting the Mizzou gig. That success is yet to translate.
- Record at USF, record in the American: 17-48 | 8-31
- Last NCAA Tournament appearance: N/A
Antigua would be getting a longer leash if he wasn't facing an academic scandal. His brother resigned over the summer, and the NCAA is conducting an investigation into the program. The school hired athletic director Mark Harlan in March 2014, and if you remember, the school wound up scrambling with this hire. It initially went with Manhattan's Steve Masiello, but his resume incorrectly stated he graduated from the University of Louisville. Masiello was in fact credits shy of that, so USF bailed on the hire only to get Antigua in his place. Now the team's struggled in two years under Antigua, the NCAA is sifting through its files, and Harlan probably has to be thinking about potential replacements if USF can't climb out of the cellar in the American. Most coaches don't face do-or-die years in season No. 3, but Antigua -- like Anderson -- are in unusual circumstances.
- Record at Clemson, record in the ACC: 107-87 | 50-54
- Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 2011 (Lost to No. 5 WVU in Round of 64)
This is Brownell's seventh season at Clemson. He's made only one NCAA Tournament, and now he has got Jaron Blossomgame back on his roster. That's a likely 2017 NBA first-rounder, not to mention one of the 15-or-so best players in the sport this season. But this league Brownell's in. It's really tough. Getting above .500 in the ACC this season would be huge for the Tigers; they went 10-8 last year. And Clemson fans, I ask you: Are you satisfied with Brownell/would you accept an 18-win season? If the answer is yes (and I think 18-win seasons should be satisfactory at a football-first, football-second, football-third place like Clemson), then you keep Brownell. Why 18 wins? It's his average there over the past six seasons. If Clemson is an NIT team again this season, if the school decides to get ambitious and make a change because of this, it would be reasonable. And Brownell's established enough as a coach that he could get a head gig at a smaller school once again.
- Record at Illinois, record in the Big Ten: 77-61 | 29-43
- Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 2013 (Lost to No. 2 Miami in the second round)
Groce shouldn't be on this list, but he has to be. Conflicting statements? Not really. The program has recruited well and performed all right in spite of a spate of injuries and player defections. No one season has ever been easy or totally enjoyable for Groce, not even his first year, when he went 23-15 and reached the NCAAs. Since then, Illinois has gone from 23 to 20 to 19 to 15 wins. The pattern should not continue this season. The Illini are packed with plenty of talent; they're my sleeper team to roar to an at-large bid this season. But if that doesn't happen, and if Illinois is lackluster, Groce's job could be in trouble. The wild card here is Illinois hiring a new AD eight months back. The leash is usually shorter when coaches without a long list of NCAA Tournament showings inherit a new boss.
- Record at LSU, record in the SEC: 80-51 | 40-32
- Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 2015 (Lost to No. 8 NC State in the first round)
The damage of last year's impotent showing with Ben Simmons on the roster made Johnny Jones the biggest punchline in college basketball coaching. Simmons went No. 1, yet LSU was never on the better half of the bubble, and the team didn't even accept a postseason bid. After being projected as a top-20 team by many, the Tigers went 19-14 and could not accrue any momentum. Jones has had some nice talent come through Baton Rouge, but you could say the same -- 20 times over -- for that football guy they just fired. Les is the name, I think. So don't believe Jones' overall record will necessarily keep him safe this season. LSU might well need to make an NCAA Tournament for him to hold on to his job. Every scenario is different. Jones has never won fewer than 19 games in a season since he got to LSU, but Bayou Bengal fans feel his record shouldn't be 80-51 overall, instead something closer to 95-36.
- Record at ECU, record in C-USA, American: 99-100 | 37-63
- Last NCAA Tournament appearance: N/A
East Carolina is no basketball sanctuary, but Lebo's been pulling rope for a program that's about the 170th-most impressive in the sport since he took over in 2010. The Pirates just can't make any progress here, and if Lebo goes a fourth year without getting above .500, a changing of the guard is completely warranted. Lebo's failed to coach any program he's been at (he's also coached Auburn, Chattanooga and Tennessee Tech) to the Big Dance.
- Record at Minnesota, record in the Big Ten: 51-51 | 16-38
- Last NCAA Tournament appearance: N/A
Pitino was brought on in 2013. Minnesota has not been able to make a dent in the Big Ten. In fact, last season had the odd spectacle of the Gophers starting 0-13 in league play. It became hard to watch. Like Groce, a fellow Big Ten coach, Pitino is now dealing with an athletic director who did not hire him. He has had a lot of problems with players, many transferring, others arrested. Fortunately, Minnesota has to be better this season than last. Going 8-23 just isn't going to happen again. Highly touted in-state recruit Amir Coffey gets a chance to spark the team, and if Pitino can get to even 14 wins this season, I do think he'll be OK. But he's on this list because there is no guarantee it all works out, and since he's so young, Pitino still has plenty of potential and options down the road.
- Record at K-State, record in the Big 12: 79-54 | 37-35
- Last NCAA Tournament appearance: 2011 (Lost to No. 8 Kentucky in the first round)
The only coach in the Big 12 with a warm tush. Every other spot in that league is extremely comfortable, and Weber's got a group that went 17-16 last season with a 5-13 run in the Big 12. If he makes the NCAAs, he's going to be safe. If K-State gets really close but ultimately winds up with a 1, 2 or 3 seed in the NIT, I think he'll be safe. Another 17-16 year could prompt a change, though. It's underrated nationally just how serious K-State hoops fans are. That base has no patience for falling behind Wichita State, let alone Kansas, in the three-horse in-state hoops race. KU will always be on top, but K-State wants to at least win a few rounds every now and then. Right now, the Wildcats are a firm third, and Weber has to right that ship this season.