Breaking down NCAA Tournament scenarios for Miami (Ohio) as Redhawks seek to cap off unbeaten season
Miami is two wins away from completing an unbeaten regular season, but its NCAA Tournament fate is a hot debate topic
Miami (Ohio) wrapped up the MAC's regular season title on Tuesday night and improved to 30-0 with a dramatic 74-72 win over Toledo. The win brought the No. 19 RedHawks to within one victory of becoming the first team since Gonzaga in 2021 to finish the regular season unbeaten.
But what does that mean for Miami's viability as an at-large candidate for the NCAA Tournament? Make no mistake: getting to 30-0 is a huge deal for Miami's hopes, because it means the maximum number of losses this team will have on Selection Sunday is two.
Still, there are no guarantees. Just ask the 2004 Utah State team that arrived at Selection with a 25-2 record but was left out of the Big Dance. That Aggies team had two victories over teams ranked inside the top-100 at KenPom.com. This Miami team has just one such victory.
There are still three distinct scenarios in play for Miami as the RedHawks prepare for their regular season finale at Ohio on Friday night. Here is the breakdown of each possibility. We'll go from worst to best for Miami.
NCAA Tournament selection scenarios for Miami
Double-defeat scenario
Selection Sunday record: 30-2, 31-2 or 32-2
Confidence level: a little nervous
Likely WAB range: Mid 40s
Miami has a 72% chance of beating Ohio on Friday, according to Sportsline. But if the RedHawks lose and then fail to win the MAC Tournament, they will either be 30-2, 31-2 or 32-2 on Selection Sunday, depending on when they bow out of the league tournament.
The metric to watch in this case will be Miami's ranking in Wins Above Bubble. WAB is a vital resume metric that is more closely correlated with a team's at-large viability than NET. It gives the selection committee the ability to compare teams that have played vastly different schedules, which is helpful when evaluating a team like Miami.
A loss to Ohio and a loss in the MAC Tournament would likely drop Miami to around 45th in WAB. That would put the Redhawks right around the expected cut line. The team with the best WAB ranking left out of last year's field was West Virginia, which arrived at Selection Sunday at No. 43 in the WAB.
The team with the worst WAB ranking selected to last year's field was Xavier, which snuck in at No. 49 in WAB. However, the Musketeers counterbalanced their lagging resume metrics with a predictive metrics profile hovering around 40th nationally.
Miami University does not have good predictive metrics to fall back upon. So slipping to the mid 40s in WAB would make things dicey. If Miami loses twice, a slip of that magnitude is likely, and it would make Selection Sunday uncomfortable.
The MAC Madness scenario
Selection Sunday record: 31-1, 32-1 or 33-1
Confidence level: Feeling optimistic
Likely WAB range: 36-40
Miami could still feel reasonably hopeful about making the Big Dance if it entered the MAC Tournament 31-0 and then dropped a game. While on some level it could matter who the loss came against, the RedHawks would still enter Selection Sunday with a WAB ranking in the at-large realm, regardless of who was responsible for handing them their first defeat.
It's important to draw a distinction between resume metrics and predictive metrics when talking about a team like Miami and the NCAA Tournament bubble. Selection decisions are closely tied to your resume and what you've accomplished, which is a good thing for Miami.
Despite the fact that it has played zero Quad 1 games, WAB and other resume-based metrics that appear on official NCAA team sheets acknowledge the improbability of Miami finishing 31-0. WAB calculates how the average bubble team would perform against your schedule. With a WAB "score" of above 2.0, the Redhawks are recognized for having over two more victories than a normal bubble team would against their slate.
Predictive metrics like KenPom are about your opponent-adjusted efficiency and are more useful in seeding than selection. Miami rates as a low 80s team in the predictive metrics on their official team sheet.
But finishing the regular season undefeated and then losing in the MAC Tournament would be good enough to keep the RedHawks' in the top 40 of WAB, which is clear at-large territory.
The simple scenario (win MAC Tournament)
Record: 33-1 or 34-0
Confidence level: It's a party
Likely WAB range: Doesn't matter
Bust out the balloons and hire a caterer for the watch party. Miami can finish the regular season 31-0 or choke against Ohio and finish 30-1. It won't matter, so long as the RedHawks are cutting down the nets inside Cleveland's Rocket Arena at the end of the MAC Tournament on March 14.
Winning the MAC Tournament is the only 100% guaranteed path to the Big Dance, and it won't be easy. The MAC isn't one of the handful of conferences now offering automatic byes to the semifinals for its top two seeds. The RedHawks will have to win three games in three days against a field consisting exclusively of the league's top eight teams.
Many of the players on this Miami team were part of a gutting 76-74 loss to Akron in last year's MAC Tournament title game in which the Zips rallied late to stun the RedHawks. That should only provide more motivation as Miami seeks its first conference tournament title since 2007.
