Miami (Ohio) stunned by UMass, still projected in NCAA Tournament field -- but the fallout could be big
The RedHawks suffered their first loss of the season, which could now give the MAC two Big Dance bids
Our first March Madness stunner has arrived -- and one week early. Previously unbeaten Miami (Ohio), which had avoided many an upset attempt the last few weeks, suffered its first loss of the season in the opening round of the MAC Tournament on Thursday.
The RedHawks, the No. 1 seed in the MAC, lost to No. 8 seed UMass 87-83 in an upset that will have major Bracketology implications throughout the rest of the field. The RedHawks finished the regular season 31-0 and went 18-0 in MAC play.
With Miami University unable to secure the league's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, it is likely the MAC will be a two-bid league for the first time since 1999. Despite the loss, Miami (Ohio) is still projected to be in the field as an at-large team. It makes for a sweaty weekend for all teams on the bubble.
With the loss, our CBS Sports' latest Bracketology projections have the RedHawks moving from seedline No. 40 to 44, which would drop them from the No. 10 line to a No. 11 seed.
Because of the shaky bubble already, the RedHawks could still avoid playing in Dayton during the First Four next week, even if it lands on the No. 11 seed line.
With the RedHawks out of the MAC Tournament, UMass will advance to the semifinals, where it will face the winner of No. 5 seed Bowling Green and No. 4 seed Toledo. No. 2 Akron is now considered the favorite to come out of the MAC and secure the league's automatic berth.
Akron is a projected No. 12 seed (as the league's projected conference champion) in CBS Sports' latest Bracketology projections as a result of the major upset.
Impact on the rest of the field
It is a weak bubble year, so do not cry for many of the teams who will be impacted. Most of the notable teams on the bubble have already been bounced in their respective conference tournaments (Texas, Indiana, Cal, SMU, and Stanford).
With Miami (Ohio) in position to receive an at-large berth, that means one team on the bubble that felt safe coming into the week might be sweating extra hard on Selection Sunday. The team projected to get knocked off the bubble as a result of UMass' upset win is SMU, per CBS Sports' latest Bracketology projections, but this leaves little room for error for the likes of Santa Clara, VCU and Auburn, which entered the day as the projected "Last Four In" in our Bracketology projections.
Miami's case to get in
Miami University capped one of the best regular seasons in college basketball history after finishing 31-0. However, the loss against UMass in the first round of the MAC Tournament will sting. Miami's strength of schedule will certainly be a talking point the next few days, as the RedHawks own a NET strength of schedule ranked No. 339 nationally.
There are two sets of metrics the selection committee consults during the selection, seeding and bracketing process that serve as guideposts. Which set the committee relies upon more heavily will dictate where Miami lands on Selection Sunday.
Results-based metrics that appear on official team sheets are the Kevin Pauga Index (KPI), Strength of Record (SOR) and Wins Above Bubble (WAB). Miami's average standing in those metrics was in the low 30s entering the MAC Tournament, which is in line with a No. 9 seed.
Then, there are three "predictive" metrics that measure on-court efficiency adjusted for opponent. In those metrics, Miami averages out around 90th, which would typically be well outside the realm of at-large consideration.
What will help Miami is how bad this year's bubble is. There are not many teams on the bubble that did themselves any favors this week in their first or second conference tournament games. Ultimately, Miami should feel safe entering the weekend, but anything can happen.
Will the committee leave Miami (Ohio) out?
Again, anything can happen between now and Selection Sunday, but Miami University appears to be safely in the field despite the loss. Although losing in the first round of the MAC Tournament to an inferior opponent like UMass after pundits debated Miami's strength of schedule to begin with will certainly be a talking point the next few days.
The irony of Miami's loss is that Akron, a team that wouldn't have made the tournament as an at-large team, will now have an opportunity to secure a bid to the Big Dance. In fact, Akron actually entered the week as the betting favorite to win the MAC Tournament.
Akron ranked No. 62 at KenPom entering the MAC Tournament, which makes it the league's highest-rated team by a wide margin (Miami is second at No. 91). As Cobb wrote earlier this week, the MAC Tournament was viewed as a league with serious "bid thief" potential. Less than two hours into the MAC Tournament, and it's already coming to fruition.
The bottom line: Miami should hear its name called on Selection Sunday.
