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Every Friday leading up to conference tournaments, I'll take an early look at some of Saturday's biggest college basketball games based on the opening lines. This Saturday features Duke and North Carolina renewing their rivalry, while BYU tries to end a three-game skid against Houston.

I'll give an early lean for each game and where I think the line will move closer to tip-off. These are just leans unless I mention I officially gave out a pick on SportsLine in the analysis.

Note: Saturday's opening lines and subject to change. 

Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels
Duke -5.5, 152.5 (FanDuel)

I imagine UNC will be a popular underdog pick on Saturday. I just can't get there with the Tar Heels at this number, though. I can see the game being competitive, but I would need closer to +7 to back North Carolina.

My concern here is Duke's offense has a huge edge over the Tar Heels' defense, and I'm not sure UNC can get enough stops late in the game to cover the modest number. The Blue Devils are also a much better free-throw shooting team, and that could be a factor if the spread is in play late in the game.

Duke's one big weakness is the Blue Devils don't have a lot of ball-handlers and can struggle with turnovers. We saw this against Florida State, when Duke turned the ball over 15 times and only won by four. However, North Carolina isn't built to exploit this weakness. The Tar Heels' defense ranks 15th in the ACC in turnover percentage, according to KenPom.

Duke showed in two games versus Louisville they are clearly the class of the ACC, beating the Cardinals by 11 and 31. I think we see the Blue Devils make a similar statement here. If the line drops to 4.5, I will strongly consider betting Duke.

Lean: Duke -5.5 

Houston Cougars at BYU Cougars
Houston -2.5, 148.5 (DraftKings)

A couple of weeks ago, this looked like a matchup between two of the top teams in college basketball. Since then, BYU has lost four of five and three straight. It won't get any easier for BYU on Saturday, facing a Houston squad that's lost just once since Thanksgiving.

The issue for the Provo Cougars has been defense. BYU has allowed 90 points per game in losses to Texas Tech, Arizona, Kansas and Oklahoma State. The Cougars really hit rock bottom on Wednesday, when they scored 92 points and still lost to Oklahoma State because they gave up 99.

Houston is my pick to win the national championship, and the Cougars enter Saturday off blowout wins over Cincinnati and UCF. While Houston's defense is miles better than BYU's, the one area where opponents can attack the Cougars is from the perimeter. Texas Tech shot 41.4 percent from three-point range in its 90-86 win over Houston on Jan. 24.

While I don't love the spot for Houston, I am worried about BYU's lack of intensity on the defensive end. I think the best way to attack this game is to bet the Over.

Houston should dominate near the rim and get some easy baskets in transition off turnovers. Meanwhile, BYU has scored at least 70 points in 21 of 22 games this season. If they reach that number here, I think the game goes over 148.5 points.

Lean: Over 148.5

Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky -1.5, 144.5 (FanDuel)

Two of the hottest teams in the SEC meet on Saturday night in Lexington. Tennessee has won four straight, while Kentucky is 7-1 in its last eight games.

These teams are extremely close on paper, and that showed in the first meeting on Jan. 17 when Kentucky won the road, 80-78. Tennessee has to feel like it let one slip away after blowing a 17-point first-half lead. The Wildcats never led until 16 seconds left in the game.

If this game is close again, free-throw shooting could be a factor. Both teams shot under 70 percent in the first meeting, which lines up with their season averages. I am always leery betting a game that is projected to be tight late when both teams struggle from the line.

Kentucky has dominated the series of late, winning four of the past five meetings. While I lean the Wildcats at home, I can see this game going a lot of different ways, and the added variable of missed foul shots by both teams likely makes this a pass for me.

Lean: Kentucky -1.5

Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State -1.5, 143.5 (DraftKings)

Michigan State is coming off two losses and dealing with the added distraction of star Jeremy Fears' potentially getting benched after some questionable fouls in recent games. Tom Izzo is one of my favorite coaches, and even with all the distractions, I expect him to have the Spartans ready for this game. Fears might not start for disciplinary reasons, but either way I anticipate him playing a lot. The game is just too important.

Matchup-wise, MSU's biggest weakness is turnovers, but Illinois ranks last in the Big Ten in creating turnovers, so I don't see it being a big issue Saturday. The Spartans are also an excellent rebounding team and guard the perimeter well, traits that should serve them well against Illinois.

The Illini have been a machine this season, especially on the road where Illinois is a perfect 5-0. While it's hard to bet against them right now, the Spartans are built a lot like UConn. The Huskies held Illinois to a season-low 61 points thanks to a smothering defense. I think Michigan State can turn this game into a grinder and steal it late. I like the Spartans in this spot on the moneyline.

Lean: Michigan State ML -115