College basketball picks: Expert's best betting spots for this week's games include Texas A&M vs. Alabama

Each Monday for the remainder of the regular season, I'll look ahead to the best college basketball betting spots for the upcoming week. This week, we break down if Miami (Ohio) can remain undefeated and a potential bounce-back spot for Alabama at home.

I'll take a look at where the lines should be set, give an early lean for each game and where I think the line will move closer to tip-off. These are just what I am leaning toward, but keep an eye out for my official picks, this week and every week, over at SportsLine.  

Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo, Tuesday

Is Tuesday the night Miami finally falls? Maybe not, although the RedHawks have been living on the edge lately. Miami blasted Northern Illinois on Saturday, but its three previous victories came on a buzzer-beater and two in overtime and the combined winning margin was nine points. One of those overtime wins came at home against Buffalo 105-102.

The Bulls come into Tuesday reeling. Buffalo is just 1-6 in its last seven games and has dropped four straight at home. While that doesn't sound like a team you want to bet money on, the Bulls match up pretty well with Miami.

Buffalo shot 56% in the first meeting and out-rebounded the RedHawks. The difference was that Miami shot a sizzling 67.6% from the field, but it still needed overtime to survive.

KenPom makes Miami -5 in this game. However, the RedHawks are drawing a ton of money now because they are unbeaten. I think that number will be even higher, and this could be a good spot to back Buffalo at home if the line is +6 or higher.

Texas A&M at Alabama, Wednesday

I have been successful betting on or against Alabama over the last two seasons. The reason for this is because Crimson Tide games tend to go how the matchups dictate. For example, Alabama doesn't match up well with Florida and Tennessee. The result? The Tide are 0-10 in their last 10 games against those two teams.

Texas A&M is having a tremendous first season under first-year head coach Bucky McMillan. The Aggies enter the week atop the SEC standings at 7-1 with their only conference defeat a double-overtime loss at Tennessee. Alabama is sitting at 4-4 in the SEC and just got blown out at Florida, but I think it's a good time to buy low on the Crimson Tide.

Alabama struggles against Florida and Tennessee because those two teams kill it on the boards. The Tide don't do as well against big, physical opponents. That won't be a problem on Wednesday, because Texas A&M is one of the worst rebounding teams in the SEC, so the Aggies can't exploit Alabama's biggest weakness.

Another thing to note is the Tide have played a much more difficult SEC schedule up to this point. Texas A&M's toughest stretch is coming up with games against Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt and Arkansas in February.

KenPom makes Alabama -6 in this matchup. I will likely be all over the Crimson Tide if they open -7 or less at home.

Oakland at Cleveland State, Wednesday

Don't look now, but Cleveland State has won four straight games in the Horizon League. It's a heck of a turnaround for a Vikings team that beat just two D-I opponents until Jan. 17 when the current winning streak started.

In the new age of college basketball, it's not shocking to see some teams peaking late in the season. The reality is, Cleveland State started the year with a first-time head coach in Rob Summers and an entirely new roster. It's tough to have immediate success under those circumstances.

These two met in Oakland on Jan. 9, with the Golden Grizzlies cruising to an easy 97-74 victory. I expect a closer game this time around. One thing to note from the first game is Oakland went 24-of-27 from the free-throw line, while Cleveland State shot just 10 foul shots, making eight.

The Golden Grizzlies do get to the foul line a lot on average, although Cleveland State typically does a good job of limiting fouls. The first meeting was an exception, so it will be interesting to see how the officials call the game early. If the Vikings can limit Oakland's free-throw opportunities, I think they can stay competitive.

The metric sites are all over the place with this number, with projections ranging from 5 to 10 points. I would consider Cleveland State at home +9 or higher. Anything lower and maybe wait for a better live line once the game tips off.

Arkansas at Mississippi State, Saturday

Mississippi State is a team I have been fading this season when the Bulldogs step up in class, and that might be the case again Saturday. Arkansas gets to stew over the loss to Kentucky for a week before traveling to Starkville.

The problem with the Bulldogs is they just can't slow down the top offenses in the SEC. In losses to Kentucky, Alabama, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, Mississippi State allowed an average of 91 points and was beaten by 22.7 points.

On Saturday, Mississippi State faces an Arkansas offense that enters the week ranked third in the SEC in efficiency, according to KenPom, and first in two-point field goal percentage. Look for the Hogs to get anything they want near the rim against a Mississippi State defense that struggles to stop dribble penetration and gives up way too many east buckets.

KenPom and other metric sites have Arkansas laying between 5 and 6 points on the road. My buy point on the Razorbacks in this matchup is -5.5 or less in what looks like a "get right" spot for John Calipari's squad coming off a loss.