College basketball picks: Expert's national semifinal best bet, value play and team to avoid
College basketball expert Thomas Casale gives his top national semifinal futures bets ahead of the NCAA Tournament
This week in our college basketball futures article I'll take a look at the national semifinals market. While a lot of people focus on who will win the National Championship, sometimes wagering on a team to be among the last four standing is the smarter bet.
One thing I look for in betting college basketball futures is teams peaking late in the season. Those big matchups in November are fun to watch but the reality is they don't mean much come March. Here are a couple of teams I like in the national semifinal market and one to avoid. All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best bet: Houston Cougars (+260)
Last week, I gave out Houston +1400 to win the title. While I still like that wager, the Cougars +260 to reach the national semifinal is probably my favorite college basketball futures bet right now.
The three metrics I look at closely are defense, rebounding and free throw shooting. Teams will likely need to win a close game in March when they don't shoot well and those three metrics can be the difference. The Cougars rank 11th in defensive efficiency, 20th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 14th in free-throw shooting percentage on KenPom, while facing one of the toughest schedules in the country.
The other thing about Houston is while it has some veterans returning from last season, Kelvin Sampson is relying on four freshmen to play big minutes, led by leading scorer Kingston Flemings (17.0 ppg). The Cougars have improved throughout the year and I anticipate them playing their best basketball come March.
Houston came within a possession of winning the championship last season and I expect a hungry, focused team in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars are the basketball equivalent of a root canal and no one wants to see them in their bracket.
Houston has all the ingredients to make a second-straight national semifinal run and I love the value at +260. I think that number should be closer to +180.
Best value: Kansas Jayhawks (+450)
Bill Self is showing why he is one of the best coaches in the country. A month ago, I wanted nothing to do with this Kansas team. The Jayhawks struggled to find consistency on offense and I wasn't sure if they had the right mix of players. I should have known better. Self figured out his rotations and Kansas has won six straight with victories over Iowa State, BYU and Texas Tech.
While Self deserves a lot of the credit, so does future lottery pick Darryn Peterson. Peterson scored 18 points in the first half against BYU before cramping forced him to miss most of the final 20 minutes. However, it was the next game against Texas Tech that sticks out to me.
Peterson wasn't having a great game but nailed two late 3-pointers to help Kansas get a key road win. Having the potential No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft could be the difference between winning and losing close games in the tournament.
Peterson is the star but let's not overlook the Jayhawks' elite defense. Kansas ranks eighth in defensive efficiency, seventh in two-point field percentage, and 16th in three-point field goal percentage on KenPom. The Jayhawks held five of their last six opponents below 70 points entering Saturday's matchup with Utah.
CBS' Jerry Palm projects Kansas as a No. 3 seed in his latest bracketology. The Jayhawks have a chance to earn an even higher seed over the next month with games against Arizona, Iowa State and Houston coming up. Win a couple of those and Kansas +450 to reach the national semifinal will be long gone.
Team to avoid: Michigan State Spartans (+1000)
A red flag for me entering the NCAA Tournament is a team that turns the ball over a lot. At some point, you will face an opponent that pressures the ball and creates a lot of easy baskets off turnovers.
Michigan State ranks 253rd in turnover percentage and 256th in steal percentage. What does that mean? It means the Spartans will have a heck of time beating teams like Houston or Iowa State in the NCAA Tournament. In Michigan State's two Big Ten losses to Nebraska and Michigan, the Spartans committed 35 turnovers.
Now, turnovers aren't the only thing that decides basketball games. Michigan State is an elite rebounding team on both ends of the floor. When Tom Izzo has success in the tournament, he typically has physical teams that dominate the boards. That's the case this season.
I still worry about the offense overall though. The Spartans rank 46th in offensive efficiency and history tells us that isn't good enough to reach the national semifinal. When I watch Michigan State, I see a solid team with a regional final ceiling if everything breaks right. However, I would need closer to +1800 to consider a bet on Michigan State making the national semifinal.
