It never ceases to amaze me how fast the college basketball regular season comes and goes. We’re in the throes of the best time on the sports calendar, and soon enough it’s going to be spring. The weather will be nice but the hoops will be behind us. The offseason is so long, so I hope you’re enjoying this season to its fullest. It has been a tremendous year already, and of course we can only believe that the NCAA Tournament will be a reliable mad house, as always.
As we look to the final weekend of the regular ol’ season, there’s a little bit for everyone out there. We have marquee matchups, automatic bids to be decided, interesting bubble games, coaches trying to save their jobs, seed shifting, etc. And while Saturday offers up more games, Sunday will feature three tickets getting punched.
Here’s what to look for this weekend in college basketball.
Duke-North Carolina: what to watch for
It would be an interesting predicament for the tournament selection committee if Duke wins this game. In the most basic of consequential terms, here’s what would be on the table if UNC lost at home to its rival.
- Duke would finish the regular season with as many top-50 RPI wins as any other team. The Blue Devils currently have 10. Because of this, no matter what would happen in the ACC tournament, Duke would probably be in position for a fairly strong seed.
- UNC will finish atop the ACC regular-season standings regardless of what happens against Duke, though a victory assures them of the outright title. But a loss here would mean the Tar Heels were swept by the Blue Devils. It would give UNC seven losses and two straight defeats to close out the season. So while the ACC is considered the deepest and toughest league, it stands to reason that UNC would likely need to win the league’s postseason title to secure a spot on the top line. UNC also has losses to Indiana and Georgia Tech, neither of which projects as an at-large team as of now.
Either way, a really good sign for UNC: The Tar Heels have never lost in a season-finale game against Duke under Roy Williams when playing for a league title. UNC is 7-0.
In terms of the game, here’s what to keep an eye on.
1. All-American statements
For North Carolina, Justin Jackson is on the fringe of being a first-team All-America choice. He had a rough game at Virginia earlier this week, scoring seven points on 10 shots. If he plays well and UNC wins, Jackson (18.4 ppg) would have a good case for the first team. Strangely, he would probably be the most “anonymous” Tar Heel to ever earn the honor. Because UNC hasn’t been overwhelmingly dominant and because Jackson’s game isn’t flashy, he hasn’t received widespread acclaim this season.
Meantime, Luke Kennard (19.8 ppg) is the other A-A candidate in this one. If Kennard goes off, puts up more than 20 points and helps push Duke to a win, there’s a very good shot of him cracking that First Team. FYI: Kennard and Matt Jones are the only Duke players who’ve appeared in every game for the Devils this season. Kennard went for 20 points in the first matchup between these two. I think he’ll need at least that many to give Duke a shot.
2. Grayson Allen’s effectiveness
Allen missed the loss to Miami last weekend (ankle), and I believe had he been on the floor for that one Duke would have won. Allen managed 16 minutes in Duke’s home victory over Florida State earlier this week. He’s the best option for Duke when it comes to being the primary ball handler and quasi point guard. Frank Jackson is a great sparkplug (he’ll start over Allen in this game), but he’s not a natural distributor. If Allen is feeling a bit better, Duke will need him to contribute upward of 25 minutes in order to keep up with the Heels’ pace. Mike Krzyzewski said on Friday that Allen is not 100 percent. If you’re telling me Allen will be limited, I’m telling you Duke’s chances of winning this game are minimal. Remember how big Allen was in the win at Cameron in February?
3. Jayson Tatum’s second act
Tatum has developed something of a habit here. He’s prone to really good performances -- after the halftime break. He showed it at Virginia, but the game against UNC also sparked, in a big way, his overall profile. Duke has been an up-and-down team this season, and some of that has been parallel to Tatum’s performances. I don’t think the team goes as he does, though. I do think Duke’s chances at winning in Chapel Hill will need to be a duplicate of what went down in Durham. That night Kennard, Allen and Tatum played near their peaks.
Prediction: I like UNC at home here with a firm statement. Heels win 86-76. Joel Berry might well have himself an awesome game. Kennedy Meeks will probably cry, it being Senior Night. Ol’ Roy will definitely cry.
Four tournament tickets get punched
The small-conference tournaments are the charm and thrill of the next week or so. This weekend will see four NCAA bids get handed out.
Ohio Valley (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2): The semis in this one are Friday night. Top-seeded Belmont (22-5) is the favorite. The Bruins would be best suited to win this for the OVC; no team is remotely as good as Rick Byrd’s in this conference. If the seeds hold, Belmont will play Tennessee-Martin for the title.
Big South (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN): We’ve already had tumult in this bracket. Friday night will bring the semifinals in this league playoff. No. 6 Radford plays No. 7 Campbell in one game, while top-seeded Winthrop will try to get past No. 4 Gardner-Webb. Why not: I’ll take Radford to win the dang thing. There’s always at least one small conference that winds up with a low seed stealing the bid.
Missouri Valley (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): Few tournaments are better than Arch Madness. St. Louis will play host to what should be a fun three-day run to the title game. From a national perspective, most everyone is rooting for No. 1 Illinois State to play No. 2 Wichita State in the final. But both teams need to win two games before that’s possible. If we get to that point, and it’s a close final, both teams will have valid cases for at-large consideration. My prediction is a Wichita State title, but I’d put both in if they both reach the finale.
Atlantic Sun (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN): Top-seeded Florida Gulf Coast -- which you can read more about right here -- will play No. 3 North Florida. Both these programs have been in the Big Dance within the past two seasons. Expect a very good game. Dunk City is my pick.
Saturday’s 5 most intriguing bubble games
1. Georgia at Arkansas (2 ET, ESPN2): I know the SEC isn’t thrilling, but a win for Georgia here really would vault the Bulldogs in a big way. Arkansas might be the most “blah” team that’s currently projected to make the field, but don’t sleep. I wonder the Hogs would fall out of the bracket with a home loss here. Reasonable to deduce that they lock up a bid with a W, though.
2. Michigan State at Maryland (2 ET, Big Ten Network): In my mind, the Spartans still need one more solid victory. A win here would clinch it. A Maryland loss brings more messiness to the Big Ten.
3. Seton Hall at Butler (2:30 ET): The Pirates are 19-10 and have won four of their past five. If they manage to get a win at Butler, they’re a lock. A loss for Butler would not shock me, by the way. BU is unpredictable but a lot of fun.
4. Georgia Tech at Syracuse (4 ET, ESPN3): To me, this is the most intriguing game. If Georgia Tech wins this, I think it bumps Syracuse way down the at-large chain. In fact, I think SU would need a run to the ACC title game in order to have a case for an at-large. If Syracuse wins, though -- and yes, I do think this game can swing so much for the Orange -- Jim Boeheim’s team will probably only need to dodge a bad first-round ACC loss in order to clear the field. Georgia Tech winning would give Josh Pastner’s team a road victory that its résumé is starving for.
5. Wake Forest at Virginia Tech (4:30 ET, ESPN3): Wake Forest just beat Louisville, and now it has a fine chance to sweep the leg on Va. Tech. The metrics love the Demon Deacons, and I happen to think this team is capable of being a “surprising” choice to make the field if it beats Va. Tech and then loses its first ACC tourney game. John Collins is legit, people.
Slip-sliding away?
Slipping teams that are trying to find a grip before league (and/or NCAA) tournament play:
- Xavier plays at DePaul. If the Musketeers lose this game, they should probably be out of the field and would need a run to the Big East semis to play their way back in.
- California plays at Colorado. The Bears have lost four of five and are careening into another dimension. Ivan Rabb’s sophomore season has largely been a lost one.
- I don’t know if Kansas State or Texas Tech will make the NCAA Tournament, because these two have combined to lose 10 of their past 14. Either way, the winner of this game (K-State is at home) will have the edge for First Four hopes.
- Southern California has lost four of its past five, and needs to not do the unthinkable and lose at home to Washington.
- VCU isn’t exactly slipping; it lost road games to Rhode Island and Dayton. But it can’t fool around and get beat by George Mason at home. An L there would put the Rams in a tight spot.
