Duke vs. North Carolina prediction, pick, odds, spread: Blue Devils, Tar Heels renew fierce rivalry
North Carolina handed Duke its lone loss in ACC play last month in an instant classic, now the Blue Devils look to return the favor
The latest chapter of one of the best rivalries in sports will be written Saturday when No. 1 Duke faces No. 17 North Carolina in the regular-season finale for both programs. The Blue Devils have already clinched the ACC regular-season title and will be the No. 1 seed in next week's ACC Tournament. North Carolina is in position to earn the No. 4 seed, which would secure a double-bye.
This will be a rematch of one of the best college basketball games of the season. After trailing for nearly all 40 minutes of regulation, UNC stunned Duke when Seth Trimble knocked down a 3-pointer in the final second. That remains Duke's only loss in ACC play.
Since that defeat, Duke has won seven consecutive games, including a marquee nonconference win over Michigan. After the upset, UNC dropped a game to Miami but has since won six of its past seven.
North Carolina will be without star forward Caleb Wilson against Duke and for the remainder of the season after he suffered a broken right thumb in practice earlier this week.
Here is everything you need to know ahead of Duke's matchup against North Carolina.
Duke vs. North Carolina: Need to know
Cameron Boozer running away with NPOTY: Entering the final weekend of the regular season, Duke star Cameron Boozer is running away with National Player of the Year honors. He is the consensus favorite to win the award and could become the latest freshman to claim college basketball's top individual honor. Boozer is averaging 22.6 points, 10.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists this season. He would become the second consecutive Duke freshman (Cooper Flagg) to win the award.
UNC needs others to step up without Wilson: With Wilson out, the focus shifts back to the frontcourt. Wilson is by far UNC's most talented player, so others will have to step up if the Tar Heels want to make a run in March. Since Wilson's injury, North Carolina has started Jarin Stevenson and Henri Veesaar in the frontcourt. Stevenson, a transfer from Alabama, has already delivered big moments this season. He scored a team-high 19 points against Pitt, which came days after Wilson suffered the initial injury. Keep an eye on Stevenson against Duke.
Duke's dominance at home: Duke enters the game 14-0 at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The last time Duke lost at home was to North Carolina in the regular-season finale in 2024. With that victory, UNC clinched the outright ACC title. North Carolina was also the only other ACC team (18-0) to finish the regular season undefeated at home.
Where to watch Duke vs. North Carolina live
Date: Saturday, March 7 | Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium -- Durham, North Carolina
TV: ESPN | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
Duke vs. North Carolina prediction, pick
Just over 24 hours before tipoff, North Carolina announced that star forward Caleb Wilson would miss the remainder of the season after suffering a broken thumb in practice. It's a devastating blow for the short- and long-term future of UNC basketball. Wilson was outstanding in the first matchup against Duke, and others will have to step up in his absence. Duke should be able to finish the regular season at home with a win over its in-state rival. In both of Duke's losses this season, late-game blunders proved costly. The Blue Devils have not lost at home this season, and I expect that to continue this weekend. Still, even without Wilson, UNC keeps the game relatively close and covers the 16-point spread. Pick: UNC +16
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