Duke vs. Virginia odds, prediction: 2026 college basketball picks for February 28 from proven model

The top two teams in the ACC meet when the 11th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers clash with the top-ranked Duke Blue Devils on Saturday. Virginia is coming off a 90-61 win over North Carolina State on Tuesday, while Duke crushed Notre Dame 100-56 that same night. The Cavaliers (25-3, 13-2 ACC), who have won nine consecutive games, are 8-1 on the road this season. The Blue Devils (26-2, 14-1 ACC), who have won five in a row, are 13-0 on their home court.

Tipoff from Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C., is set for noon ET. Duke is a 9.5-point favorite in the latest Virginia vs. Duke odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 141.5. Before making any Duke vs. Virginia picks, check out the men's college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

New users can target the latest DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets if your first $5+ bet wins:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times and it entered Week 17 on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 20-11 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has simulated Virginia vs. Duke 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men's college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for Duke vs. Virginia:

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Top Virginia vs. Duke predictions

SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (141.5 points). The Over hit in the last meeting between the teams. The Over has hit in two of the last three Virginia games, as well as in the last Duke games. Virginia is 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 games. Duke, meanwhile, is 6-4 ATS in its last 10.

The model projects the Cavaliers to have three players score 11.1 points or more, including Thijs De Ridder's projected 13.5 points. The Blue Devils are projected to have three players score 10 or more points, led by Cameron Boozer, who is projected to score 21.7 points. The model is projecting 149 combined points as the Over clears in nearly 70% of simulations.

How to make Duke vs. Virginia picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Duke vs. Virginia, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Virginia vs. Duke spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.