Duke vs. Kentucky prediction, odds, line, time: 2024 college basketball picks, Nov. 12 bets from proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Tuesday's Kentucky Wildcats vs. Duke Blue Devils matchup in the 2024 Champions Classic

By CBS Sports Staff

Nov 12, 2024 at 7:44 am ET • 3 min read

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The 2024 Champions Classic returns to Atlanta for the first time in a dozen years, with Duke vs. Kentucky highlighting the event on Tuesday night. The No. 6 Blue Devils (2-0) won each of their first two games by 34-plus points and are coming off an Elite Eight appearance a year ago. The No. 19 Wildcats (2-0) have reached 100 points in both games this year after suffering a first-round March Madness defeat in 2023-24. Duke has won nine of the last 11 meetings between the two, including a victory when they last met in 2021.

Tipoff is at 9 p.m. ET from State Farm Arena. The Blue Devils are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Kentucky vs. Duke odds, per SportsLine consensus. The over/under for total points is 160.5. Before making any Duke vs. Kentucky picks or college basketball predictions, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters Week 2 of the 2024-25 season on a 155-110 betting roll (+2102) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Kentucky vs. Duke. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball betting lines and trends for Duke vs. Kentucky:

Kentucky vs. Duke spread: Duke -5.5
Kentucky vs. Duke over/under: 160.5 points
Kentucky vs. Duke money line: Duke -262, Kentucky +211
UK: The Over is 25-10 for Kentucky since the start of last season
DUKE: The Blue Devils are 12-4 ATS in non-conference games since last season
Kentucky vs. Duke State picks: See picks at SportsLine
Kentucky vs. Duke State streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why you should back Kentucky

New Kentucky coach Mark Pope had BYU ranked 14th nationally in offensive efficiency last season, and his touch on the Wildcats is already apparent this season. UK scored 103 points in a season-opening win over Wright State, before a 100-point outing against Bucknell. It's the first time in eight years that the Wildcats have had back-to-back games hitting triple-digits. They've also kept both opponents under 40% from the field, with a number of individual standouts.

Amari Williams, who transferred in after being a three-time CAA Defensive Player of the Year winner at Drexel, has notched double-doubles in both games. Meanwhile, Koby Brea, who won A-10 Sixth Man of the Year twice at Dayton, has been lighting up the scoreboard as a Wildcat reserve. He's averaging 19 points on a blistering 83.3% from three-point range. UK can also take comfort in the fact that Duke is just 6-9 ATS versus ranked teams since Jon Scheyer took over in 2022. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back Duke

Duke's No. 1 incoming class is highlighted by the top overall freshman in Cooper Flagg, who has filled up the stat sheet in his two games. He's averaging 15.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.5 steals and 1.5 blocks, but he's not even the Blue Devils' leading scorer thus far. That honor goes to fellow five-star freshman Kon Knueppel, who is averaging 18.5 points. Holdover Blue Devils in Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster are both averaging in double-figures and provide continuity to a team with 10 new players.

Another thing Duke hopes to continue in 2024-25 is its spread success when venturing outside the ACC. Duke is 12-4 ATS in non-conference games since the start of last season, with that 75% cover rate being the fourth-best amongst all power-conference teams. Additionally, over the last 10 neutral-site meetings between these teams, the Blue Devils have felt at home as they've won eight of the 10 matchups. See which team to pick here.