CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. -- Rare is the occasion in college basketball that, statistically, two of the top three teams play each other in the regular season.
But lucky us: we get it twice in a span of three weeks.
No. 2 Duke plays at No. 3 Virginia in the top game of the weekend and, obviously, one of the most anticipated games of 2018-19. Duke won by two on its home floor vs. the Cavaliers on Jan. 19; it's the only loss UVA has taken this season. Duke didn't have elite defender and ever-important point guard Tre Jones in that game. Jones will be on the floor for Saturday, making the game nearly the toss-up it was when these two met at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Duke enters the game as an elite team in four major categories. It ranks first nationally in blocks (7.5 per game), second in scoring margin (21.8), third in steals (10.4) and fourth in points per game (87.0).
Virginia boasts the best scoring defense in the sport (No. 1 in efficiency and No. 1 in points allowed at 52.9), has the best 3-point defense (24.7 percent), is third in scoring margin (20.0) and fifth in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.61).
The teams are vying for supremacy in the ACC -- but also pushing for No. 1 overall seed status for the NCAA Tournament. Two of the four sites for the Sweet 16/Elite Eight this season are in Washington, D.C. and Louisville, Kentucky. The winner of Saturday's game could prove to win out and get to play closer to home, in D.C., should it win its first two NCAA Tournament games.
Viewing information for Duke at Virginia
When: Saturday, 6 p.m. ET
Where: John Paul Jones Area in Charlottesville, Virginia
TV: ESPN | Live stream: WatchESPN
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The availability of Ty Jerome is the primary plot line heading into Saturday. Ironically, Jones being out for Duke was the lead item the last time these teams played. Jerome is dealing with a back issue; Tony Bennett has been mum on this since Monday. Virginia doesn't open its practices, which has added to the mystery. UVA is a much different/better team with its point guard on the floor, of course. Jerome has the highest usage of any Cavalier and he's made 40.6 percent of his 101 3-point shots this season. And though he's not overlooked within the conference, Jerome's ability and value has been slept on nationally. That may no longer be the case, regardless of who wins, by the time we get to the end of Saturday night. Another story with Virginia is the so, so tired reference to last year's UMBC loss in the first round. But hey, if you're going to become the first No. 1 to lose to a No. 16, this is part of the deal. And I'd argue that the way Virginia has responded to that loss has turned into one of the best stories in college basketball this season. How many coaches/programs/players would rebound from the most notorious upset in college hoops history with a 20-1 start and a claim to being the best teams in the nation the next season? Few. In broad view, the story of Virginia for this game and this season is how dominant it's remained. Many players from last season's team are back, but there was turnover, which makes the advancement all the more impressive. Braxton Key is a transfer via Alabama who's provided a humble boost, and freshman Kihei Clark has thrived playing alongside Kyle Guy and Jerome. In the frontcourt, Jay Huff and Jack Salt are more significant than serviceable. Then there's potential top-15 NBA pick De'Andre Hunter, who is the most efficient of the bunch (126.1 offensive rating, per KenPom). Virginia's defense is still better than its offense, but not by much. This is shaping up to be the best Cavaliers team Bennett's had. | |
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From the Blue Devils' perspective on this, here's what I find most intriguing: Virginia is the best defensive team in the country, but Duke will have the two best defenders in this game. Zion Williamson and Tre Jones are next-level custodians on the hardwood, and if they continue to exert their will, Duke's going to have a great chance at picking off a win and taking hold of the ACC race. If Jerome plays, Jones vs. Jerome is the top individual matchup to key in on. Outside of that, Duke's shooting issues will probably play the biggest role in how this game is decided. Duke is only 30.8 percent from 3-point range. This is one of the worst 3-point-shooting teams Mike Krzyzewski has had in the past 30 years. It would be a stunner if Duke managed to make more than five 3s in Charlottesville. Absent of that, breaking UVA's pack line with the creativity of Jones, the craftiness of RJ Barrett and the brawny-yet-angular deftness of Williamson is going to be essential. Williamson averages about four NBA Draft highlight-level plays per game. How many will we see here? Limiting him is most important, as he's the clear frontrunner for National Player of the Year at this stage. One last thing on Duke: it's had some slow starts as of late. It was only up two at home to St. John's late in the first half last weekend, and on Tuesday it trailed at home vs. Boston College. Both those games wound up being Duke blowouts, but if Duke has a bad first 15, 17, 20 minutes vs. Virginia and finds itself in a hole, it almost certainly will not be able to climb out of it. | |
Game prediction, picks
Latest line via SportsLine: Virginia -2.5
The first matchup between these teams was entertaining and higher-scoring than many expected. Duke's 72-70 win represented just the second time this season a team put 70 or more on UVA. In fact, Virginia's only allowed four teams to score above 60 this season.
Duke should be able to crack the 60-point mark, but hitting 70 again, on the road, is going to be a tough ask. Williamson and Barrett will almost certainly not duplicate their high-level combo effort from the first game in which they combined for 57 points and lifted Duke to its best win of the season.
As noted above, I think the 3-point shooting, or lack thereof, of Duke is going to play a big role here. Not only that, but teams are making only 62.5 percent of their foul shots vs. Virginia. That's a bit of a lucky stat, but it's also foreboding for a Duke team that's averaging a sub-par 67.6 percent from the charity stripe.
As of Friday night, Virginia was providing no official update on Jerome. I'll lob a guess and say he plays, and even if he doesn't, i think Virginia will be better from long range than the first meeting. I also anticipate Hunter to provide another performance that will reinforce his lottery-pick credentials. Virginia wins definitively, albeit in a close one, which has become one of its trademarks under Bennett. Norlander's pick: Cavaliers 68, Blue Devils 63.