Fade your friends: Six unpopular picks for your NCAA Tournament bracket that will help you win your pool
Here are six teams that will give you a nice bit of leverage based on comparative data analysis
We're into bracket season once again, with the First Four set to tip off Tuesday. As you fill out your brackets at CBS Sports, you'll likely turn to a few sources to help give you an edge over your friends. If you want to go one level deeper into bracket strategy, you've come to the right place. That's what we're going to do here as we compare public selection data to SportsLine Projection Model simulations and the odds market.
How does this work? Essentially, odds offered in the market can be converted into implied odds to win, and when paired with the SportsLine model's projections, which are based on 10,000 simulations of every matchup in the tournament, we can see what two different proven sources are saying about the odds of each side to win each game. Then, we compare those data points with the public pick percentage data to see the games where the public is on the opposite side of both the model and the market.
We've identified six such games to identify the top leverage picks to help give you an edge in your bracket pool, and what's interesting this year is that there are several favorites who are undervalued by the public, which gives us a few counter-intuitive leverage plays.
Fade your friends: Top 2026 bracket leverage picks
| Leverage Side | Opponent | Public % | Model % | Market % | Model Edge | Market Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Santa Clara | 7 Kentucky | 31 | 55.7 | 45.5 | +24.7 | +14.5 |
| 11 VCU | 6 North Carolina | 31 | 42.7 | 42.5 | +11.7 | +11.5 |
| 9 Saint Louis | 8 Georgia | 42 | 53.8 | 50 | +11.8 | +8.0 |
| 7 Saint Mary's | 10 Texas A&M | 59 | 71.2 | 61.8 | +12.2 | +2.8 |
| 6 Louisville | 11 South Florida | 66 | 77 | 72.6 | +11 | +6.6 |
| 7 UCLA | 10 UCF | 68 | 78.5 | 71 | +10.5 | +3.0 |
A game qualifies if both conditions are true:
Model Win % > Public Pick %
Market No-Vig Win % > Public Pick %
That means both the model AND the market think the team wins more often than the public does. Those are the highest-confidence leverage spots.
The strongest bracket leverage opportunities occur when both predictive models and the odds market suggest a team should win more often than the public expects. When that happens, you're gaining leverage not just against the bracket field but against market perception as well.
Here's more to know about each of the six high leverage bracket picks for 2026:
10 Santa Clara over 7 Kentucky
- Public: 31% Santa Clara
- Model: 55.7% Santa Clara (+24.7)
- Market: 45.5% Santa Clara (+14.5)
- Leverage: +39.2
Santa Clara represents the single biggest leverage opportunity in the first round. Only 31% of CBS Sports brackets are advancing the Broncos, but both the model and the market suggest the game is far more competitive. The market implies Santa Clara wins about 45.5% of the time, while the model actually favors the Broncos at 55.7%. That creates a massive leverage gap of nearly 25 percentage points versus the public, making this one of the most valuable upset picks in the entire bracket.
11 VCU over 6 North Carolina
- Public: 31% VCU
- Model: 42.7% VCU (+11.7)
- Market: 42.5% VCU (+11.5)
- Leverage: +23.2
North Carolina's brand power is showing up heavily in the public bracket data, with 69% of CBS brackets advancing the Tar Heels. But both the model and the market view this as a far more competitive matchup. The market implies VCU wins about 42.5% of the time, and the model is nearly identical at 42.7%. When the market and predictive models align this closely while the public heavily favors the other team, it's a clear signal of potential bracket leverage.
9 Saint Louis over 8 Georgia
- Public: 42% Saint Louis
- Model: 53.8% Saint Louis (+11.8)
- Market: 50% Saint Louis (+8)
- Leverage: +19.8
The public is slightly leaning toward Georgia in this classic 8 vs 9 coin-flip matchup, with 58% of CBS brackets advancing the Bulldogs. However, both the model and the market see the game differently. The market prices Saint Louis at roughly a 50% win probability, while the model gives the Billikens a 53.8% chance to advance. When a near toss-up game is tilted toward one side in public brackets, it creates an easy leverage opportunity on the other.
6 Louisville over 11 South Florida
- Public: 66% Louisville
- Model: 77% Louisville (+11)
- Market: 72.6% Louisville (+6.6)
- Leverage: +17.6
Upset narratives often push the public toward double-digit seeds, but the data here favors the favorite more strongly. Louisville is advancing in 66% of CBS brackets, yet the market implies a 72.6% win probability, with the model even higher at 77%. That means Louisville may actually be under-picked relative to its true chances, making the Cardinals one of the strongest value picks among mid-seed favorites.
7 Saint Mary's over 10 Texas A&M
- Public: 59% Saint Mary's
- Model: 71.2% Saint Mary's (+12.2)
- Market: 61.8% Saint Mary's (+2.8)
- Leverage: +15
Saint Mary's is already a popular pick, but the numbers suggest the Gaels should be even more heavily favored than the public realizes. While 59% of CBS brackets advance Saint Mary's, the market implies roughly a 61.8% win probability, and the model goes even further at 71.2%. That gap means Saint Mary's offers one of the best leverage opportunities among favorites, where advancing the higher seed actually gives you an edge against the field.
7 UCLA over 10 UCF
- Public: 68% UCLA
- Model: 78.5% UCLA (+10.5)
- Market: 71% UCLA (+3)
- Leverage: +13.5
The public is somewhat cautious on UCLA, with 68% of CBS brackets advancing the Bruins. However, both the market and the model see a stronger advantage for UCLA than the public suggests. The market implies about a 71% win probability, while the model projects the Bruins advancing 78.5% of the time. That difference creates a modest but meaningful leverage opportunity for brackets willing to trust the underlying probabilities.
