I'm not quite sure why, but I hadn't quite bought into this year's version of the Xavier Musketeers until Tuesday night.
Maybe it was because some ranking systems -- the AP Poll, which has Xavier ranked fifth; or the various bracketologists, including our own Jerry Palm, who recently moved Xavier up to that final No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament -- placed Xavier quite a bit higher than KenPom.com, which had Xavier ranked 16th going into its road matchup at Butler.
Or maybe it was because all those near-losses on Xavier's resume. I know, I know: A win is a win. It doesn't matter if you win by 30 or if you win on a fluke buzzer-beater after playing a lackluster game: All wins count the same. But Xavier has had a bit too many nail-biters for my liking.
There were the nonconference near-losses like the East Tennessee State game when Xavier trailed by 22 midway through the second half, or the too-close-for-comfort 81-77 home win over a Marshall team that's currently ranked 133rd on KenPom. There have been the Big East games like that, too, like the overtime win at home against a Georgetown team that's 3-8 in the Big East, or the two wins over St. John's that were decided by five points and six points, respectively.
This team just didn't feel consistent enough for me to proclaim Xavier a true Final Four contender. The impressive 21-3 record was offset by a porous defense that ranks 75th in the country in defensive efficiency. The big deficits to weaker teams seemed to me an indication of a team that lacks discipline, a talented team that could get upset by a lesser team during the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
What I'm trying to say here is that I'm dumb.
I'm dumb for not fully buying into what Chris Mack has built, which is nothing short of one of the most consistent programs in college basketball. The program has made seven of eight NCAA tournaments during Mack's tenure, including four Sweet 16s.
I'm dumb for not realizing that a team starting three seniors and a junior would have the late-game chops to hang in there when they are against the ropes.
I'm dumb for not realizing how incredible senior wing J.P. Macura is at getting into his opponents' heads with knockdown shooting and in-your-face aggression.
Most of all, I'm dumb for not remembering that senior Trevon Bluiett is one of the handful of true superstars in college basketball this season, a ridiculously clutch shooter who is the type of electric player who is able to put a team on his back, Kemba Walker-style, and have the team ride him all the way through March.
After Tuesday night's gutsy 98-93 overtime win over a Butler team that came back from down seven with a minute to go to force the extra period, I hope I'm not going to be dumb any more.
Butler was really, really good Tuesday night. Senior Kelan Martin was playing with tongue-wagging swagger, nailing three after three in the second half to finish with 34 points. Hinkle Fieldhouse was rocking.
But Xavier was better. Senior Karem Kanter, Enes' little brother, could hardly miss until the game's final few minutes, scoring 22 points. Freshman Naji Marshall was all over the court. But best of all was Bluiett. In a game where he struggled from the floor throughout the first half, Blueitt ended up with 26 points. In the last 9 minutes of the game plus overtime, he scored 17 points, including a dagger with 25 seconds left that put away the game.
This feeling about Xavier -- and Xavier's current ranking near the top of the AP Poll -- may not last. After beating Butler on Tuesday, the Musketeers travel to Omaha to play a Creighton team that hasn't lost at home this season. Then back to Cincinnati, where Xavier will host a big and experienced Seton Hall team, then the No. 1 team in the country, Villanova.
Maybe all of Xavier's inconsistency will come back to bite it in the next three games. But I doubt it. This team isn't perfect. They turn the ball over more than you'd like. They struggle on the offensive boards. They don't make an inordinate number of threes.
But that experience seems to come together at the end of games. So I'm done doubting Xavier. This is a very good, perhaps great, college basketball team, warts and all.
