We all knew Duke was going to take on a few losses this season.
But now we can ask: Just how many? Four? Five? More?
Loss No. 2 came on Saturday, and the style of the result should do more than raise your eyebrows, because I never thought this Duke team would look as overrun, lethargic and perplexed as it did Saturday. I didn't think this team could be so bad and absent-minded on defense. It didn't look look a top-25 team, let alone the No. 5 group in the country.
Even more befuddling: Duke had 10 days to prep. Instead, the Blue Devils looked short on readiness and looked eager to be done with 2016.
"We haven't played well for three straight games, and it's disconcerting," Mike Krzyzewski said in the postgame presser.
Unranked Virginia Tech (now 12-1, the Hokies won't be unranked much longer) got an 89-75 win at home to kick off ACC play. The buzz around Buzz Williams' group is about to get a lot louder. That's what happens you you handle the No. 5 team in the country, a team boasting a litany of future lottery and first-round NBA picks.
Check this capper. The final big play of Virginia Tech's day is something that would make Steph Curry and Kevin Durant blush. Think this ticked off Krzyzewski? Talk about an exclamation point. That outlet pass is ... hoo-boy.
Good god Va. Tech just went Warriors on Duke. This game is a wrap. pic.twitter.com/RTsQNDWGpv
— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) December 31, 2016
It's the first win for Virginia Tech over Duke since 2011, when the then-unranked Hokies upended No. 1 Duke 64-60.
This win was so much better, and it came against better talent. But did it come against a better team? We'll have to find out pretty soon. As a collective of individual talents, I still think Duke is unmatched in college basketball. As a team of players? It's obvious now, in the soaking-wet reality of such an embarrassing loss, that Duke's destiny is foggy. To be clear, I'm not bailing on Duke as a national title contender. One 14-point loss on the road isn't going to convince me that Duke is a fraud, and you shouldn't be thinking that either.
But if you'd like to adjust your level of Duke confidence in the big picture, and to no longer automatically assume that this will be the best team in America in March? That's on the table and completely allowable.
Luke Kennard scoring 30-plus (he had 34 on Saturday) isn't going to bail this team out when it gives up more than 1.2 points per possession, which the Hokies pulled off here. We also saw a complete lack of support from the bench, and that's another factor that's emerging. Nobody thought Duke would be only a seven-man rotation this season, but maybe that's become more likely? Harry Giles, Jack White, Marques Bolden and Chase Jeter combined for four points Saturday.
I'm telling you, even if Grayson Allen plays in this game, Duke is still losing. The problem is the defense, and that's not a common, legitimate critique of Krzyzewski's teams. Virginia Tech is a good-not-great team offensively. It came into the weekend ranked 41st in America in points per possession on offense. Duke's top-10 D failed in a big way. Williams and his staff scouted tremendously. Without the ball, Duke was practically frogmarched.
Now, winning on the road is tough. Winning on the road in league play against NCAA Tournament-quality competition, well that's another kettle of fish. Remember, Duke got off to a shaky start against Tennessee State, and Allen's tripping incident in the Elon game came amid a back-and-forth vs. the Phoenix. We've seen three straight games where Duke's hit some sort of wall. They haven't started well, and when faced with a genuine opponent, there was absolutely no room for a comeback.
So we can't point to not having Allen, and Giles still working his way to being a factor, and the game being on the road, and any other excuse. Duke was outplayed, plain and simple. Virginia Tech got six guys into double figures. The Hokies got to the foul line more frequently (26 to 22), were almost twice as good from 3-point range (61.5 percent to Duke's 31.3) and got to the rim way too frequently.
It was just a jarring thing to watch. Full credit given to Virginia Tech, which will be taken seriously within the ACC, effectively immediately. But Duke's loss, the way it fell, is the bigger story right now. Allen's return from suspension is still to-be-determined, and besides that, there's a lot more Duke needs to be concerned with right now, as 2017 begins.