March Madness 2026: NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams to consider when filling out your bracket
Here are the best picks in each region to win your heart ... and, OK, maybe your office pool, too
One year after college basketball's coroners pronounced Cinderella dead amid a chalky 2025 NCAA Tournament, that narrative is about to be tested. The 2026 Big Dance features a handful of intriguing double-digit seeds with the potential to bring Cinderella back to the ball.
Popular sentiment suggests the underdog no longer stands a chance in the NIL era, which often sees the top talent from the mid-major ranks migrate to high-paying programs via the transfer portal. Will there ever be another Elite Eight from a program like Saint Peter's, which finished one victory away from the Final Four as a No. 15 seed in 2022?
Just three double-digit seeds from outside the high-major structure won first-round games last year, and none of them reached the Sweet 16. However, it should be noted that No. 12 seed Colorado State was set to break through until a buzzer-beater from Maryland's Derik Queen in the second round.
UC San Diego also came awfully close to knocking off Michigan in the first round. The Tritons would have been primed for a potential Cinderella run if that game had gone the other direction. If nothing else, the ever-increasing competitive challenges faced by the little guys in college basketball should make us appreciate surprise runs even more if and when they happen.
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So, as the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament approaches, who are the top Cinderella candidates to watch? Here's a look at four to know as you fill out your bracket.
MIDWEST REGION
No. 13 seed Hofstra (24-10)
First up: No. 4 seed Alabama. Then possibly: No. 5 seed Texas Tech
Hofstra beat Pitt and Syracuse during nonconference play, so there won't be any shock factor associated with facing an athletic high-major program. The Pride also plays with stylistic components that could make them a menace. It's a slow-paced, low-possession style that leads to quality 3-point looks. Hofstra ranks 33rd nationally in 3-point percentage at 36.8%, and a hefty share of its shot attempts come from beyond the arc. Alabama is expected to be without second-leading scorer Aden Holloway, who picked up a felony drug charge this week. That certainly helps Hofstra's hopes of pulling a big first-round upset.
WEST REGION
No. 12 seed High Point (30-4)
First up: No. 5 seed Wisconsin. Then possibly: No. 4 seed Arkansas
High Point enters the NCAA Tournament with the nation's longest winning streak at 14 games. The Panthers are one of the smallest teams in the field, but they rank third nationally in points per game (90.0), which equips them to hang with Wisconsin's high-octane offense. A year ago, High Point played a competitive game against Purdue before falling 75-63 in the first round. Most of the players are new, but the 2026 Panthers are markedly better in one key area: defensive havoc. This year's squad ranks third nationally by forcing 16.4 per contest. If they can get under Wisconsin's skin, an upset could be in store.
EAST REGION
No. 11 seed South Florida (25-8)
First up: No. 6 seed Louisville. Then possibly: No. 3 seed Michigan State.
The only reason South Florida didn't receive serious at-large consideration is that it was still gelling early in the season under first-year coach Bryan Hodgson. But the Bulls became a well-oiled machine while claiming an automatic bid as the AAC's clear best team, and they have all the firepower they need to go toe-to-toe with Louisville's 3-point-oriented attack. The names to know are Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion. The two USF guards combine to attempt 18 shots from beyond the arc per game. South Florida plays better defense than you might expect, too, forcing 14.3 turnovers per game and limiting opponents to just 46.1% shooting on 2-point attempts. The South Florida-Louisville game will be 3-point roulette, and the Bulls are more than capable of winning that way.
SOUTH REGION
No. 12 seed McNeese (28-5)
First up: No. 5 seed Vanderbilt. Then possibly: No. 4 seed Nebraska
McNeese is a deep, old team that makes life hard on its opponents with a gritty defense that tops the charts nationally in turnover percentage. Opponents cough it up on nearly a quarter of their possessions against the Cowboys. How will that translate against a sure-handed Vanderbilt team led by an elite guard tandem of Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles? Fair question. But the Commodores don't have the size or paint presence to punish the Cowboys on the interior. Therefore, it will be on the Commodores to get out in transition and make this a high-possession game, which can be hard to do against a McNeese team that prides itself on bogging down opponents.
