March Madness 2026: BYU, South Florida among NCAA Tournament bracket sleeper teams
Which lower-seeded teams in the NCAA Tournament field are capable of an upset or two?
Unless you're a diehard fan of a team playing in the NCAA Tournament or used the autofill feature, there is a very strong possibility you're contemplating picking one or more upsets in the first round and beyond. Or, maybe you're stuck after having every No. 1 and No. 2 seed advancing to the Elite Eight.
If you fit this description and want to have a leg up on identifying sleeper teams before your friends, coworkers, family members, or anyone else you know, you're in the right place. Picking the right double-digit seeds to advance could be the difference between finishing in the middle of the pack or in first place in your bracket pool.
With first-round action in the NCAA Tournament drawing near, it's time to make the final tweaks to your bracket before the madness of one of the most exhilarating sporting events in the world tips off with a matchup between No. 9 seed TCU and No. 8 seed Ohio State in the opening game of the first round on Thursday.
March Madness® is better with friends, especially when you beat them! Get your bracket pools ready now and invite your friends, family and co-workers to play.
A very popular No. 11 seed that people are picking to advance out of the first round is South Florida. We will explain why the Bulls could be a sleeper Sweet 16 team you should consider when filling out your bracket. Without further ado, let's dive into the teams to consider for your bracket this week.
Sleeper team to avoid: No. 12 seed Akron
First-round opponent: No. 5 seed Texas Tech
Last year, I correctly picked UC San Diego as a sleeper team to avoid in the first round. Despite a late push from the Tritons, Michigan held on for a 68-65 win in the first round. UCSD was a very popular upset pick, so I'm here to steer you in the right direction to avoid the same mistake (if you picked UCSD) as last year.
Akron faced four teams ranked inside the top 125 of KenPom's rankings. The Zips went 0-4 in those games. The losses came against Purdue, Miami (Ohio), Murray State and Yale. Although Akron was competitive in those games -- outside an 18-point loss to Purdue early in the season -- Texas Tech is a different beast, even without star forward JT Toppin. The Red Raiders are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. Christian Anderson is a legit star who has stepped up in the absence of Toppin. Also, Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland is elite in the NCAA Tournament. I don't see Akron winning in the first round. This is as tough a draw as it is going to get as a No. 12 seed.
Sleeper team for first round: No. 12 seed High Point
First-round opponent: No. 5 seed Wisconsin
In our West Region preview, I wrote about High Point and how they can pull off a first-round shocker against a red-hot Wisconsin team that enters the NCAA Tournament having won eight of its last 11 games. However, High Point has the longest active winning streak (14 games) among all Division I teams entering the NCAA Tournament.
What stands out about High Point is that it does not turn the ball over, and it forces turnovers on the other end. That's a perfect recipe for an upset in March because, as cliché as it sounds, every possession matters when the margins are razor-thin. High Point ranked 16th among all Division I teams in turnovers per game (9.4) and ranked third in turnovers forced (16.4). Could Wisconsin star Nick Boyd go for 30 points in a convincing win over High Point? Absolutely. But I'm targeting High Point as a double-digit seed for the first round. I also considered No. 13 seed Troy (vs. No. 4 seed Nebraska) as a first-round sleeper.
Sleeper Sweet 16 team: No. 11 seed South Florida
First-round opponent: No. 6 seed Louisville
Out of all of the No. 11 seeds in the bracket, South Florida has the clearest path to the second weekend. The Bulls open the NCAA Tournament against Louisville, a team that finished 4-8 in its final 12 games against Quad 1 opponents. South Florida enters this tournament having won 17 of its last 19 games, including an 11-game winning streak under first-year coach Bryan Hodgson. Hodgson, a former longtime assistant coach under Alabama coach Nate Oats, should be a hot candidate in the coaching carousel this cycle.
South Florida ranks second in total rebounds (42.7) among all Division I teams and third in offensive rebounds (15.48). The latter stat is the most important, as USF can create second-chance opportunities off missed shots. For context, Louisville ranks No. 132 in offensive rebounds per game, which is in the middle of the pack. If South Florida can get out of the first round, a matchup against No. 3 seed Michigan State awaits. If that happens, it would be an incredible matchup against two physically imposing frontcourts that are capable of creating second chances. USF has five players (Wes Enis, Izaiyah Nelson, Joseph Philon, Josh Omojafo and CJ Brown) averaging double digits. As a team, USF ranks eighth in scoring offense, which shouldn't be that surprising because Hodgson comes from the Oats coaching tree.
Sleeper Final Four team: No. 6 BYU
First-round opponent: No. 11 seed Texas or No. 11 seed NC State
There is one pretty simple reason that BYU can make a run to the Final Four for the first time. The Cougars are going to have the best player on the floor (AJ Dybantsa) in any game they play. Dybantsa is different. He is one of the best wing scoring prospects college basketball fans have seen in almost two decades. He is averaging over 25 points per game. He is more than capable of putting the team on his back for four nights to get BYU to the Final Four. Of course, the Cougars might be less of a "sleeper" if they still had star guard Richie Saunders, who suffered a season-ending ACL tear last month. Since that injury, Dybantsa and Baylor transfer Rob Wright III have been asked to carry more of the load on the offensive end. They both have delivered. It's why BYU still has a chance.
Here is what BYU's path to the Final Four could look like (assuming no major upsets happen).
- First round: No. 11 seed Texas or No. 11 seed NC State
- Second round: No. 3 Gonzaga or No. 14 Kennesaw State
- Sweet 16: No. 7 Miami, No. 10 Missouri or No. 2 Purdue
- Elite Eight: No. 1 Arizona, No. 4 Arkansas or No. 5 Wisconsin
Obviously, the favorite in the region is Arizona. The Cougars did play the Wildcats tough twice. In particular, the second matchup against Arizona in Tucson was without Saunders. BYU lost that night 75-68 despite Dybantsa finishing with 35 points. If any No. 6 seed is going to make it, it's going to be BYU because of what I wrote in the first sentence. Outside of Duke's Cameron Boozer, there hasn't been a better player in the sport this season than Dybantsa. When you have the best player on the court, you have a puncher's chance.
