How should the NCAA Tournament selection committee evaluate Miami (Ohio)? Our experts weigh in
Our CBS Sports experts weigh in on Miami's case to receive an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament
For better or worse, previously unbeaten Miami (Ohio) will be a major talking point until the NCAA Tournament's selection committee submits its final bracket on Selection Sunday. The RedHawks suffered a stunning loss on Thursday in the first round of the MAC Tournament to UMass, which will likely open the door for the league to get two teams in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1999.
Despite the loss, Miami (Ohio) is still projected to be in the field as an at-large team. In our latest CBS Sports Bracketology projections, we have Miami University as a No. 11 seed but avoiding the First Four.
This year's bubble is shaping up to be historically weak, which helps Miami's case to get in as an at-large team. Still, Miami's resume will certainly also be a talking point even after the bracket is revealed. The RedHawks have just three wins categorized as Quad 2 (as of Saturday) and didn't play a Quad 1 team throughout the regular season.
In the WAB (wins above bubble) rankings, Miami is No. 38 (+1.68). It's a key metric the selection committee will use to determine who gets in and who stays home. For context, in our latest projections, the last four teams in the field are Santa Clara, Missouri, VCU and SMU. Missouri (No. 41), VCU (No. 42) and SMU (No. 46) all rank below Miami in WAB.
After Miami completed an undefeated regular season, CBS Sports' Matt Norlander wrote the RedHawks were a lock to reach the NCAA Tournament. Although there might be some (light) sweating heading into Sunday, Miami appears safe to go dancing for the first time since 2007.
Here is what our CBS Sports experts think about Miami (Ohio) heading into the weekend.
What should the committee do with Miami (Ohio)?
Matt Norlander
Miami will 100% be in the NCAA Tournament. This is not subject to debate. I understand why some want to speculate. The predictive numbers don't even say this is a top-80 team in the country. I get that. Did not lose a game in the regular season. There is immense value to that. And there's also a greater profound importance to recognizing what it means to do that as a D-I team and your placement into the national tournament. It will happen. The WAB number being top-40 makes it a lock. And the RedHawks should be.
I'm going to say Miami's a No. 11 (seed), but that it dodges Dayton. So: one of the two No. 11 seeds not in the First Four. but not a No. 11 going to Dayton. So two of those No. 11 seeds feed into Dayton and two do not. I think the loss to UMass (Quad 3) bumps them off the No. 10 line, though I wouldn't be surprised at all if it was a No. 10. I'd welcome it, in fact. But the poor predictive numbers will justify the committee putting this team with an 11 next to its name.
David Cobb
Miami should be in the field and avoid the First Four. Last year's bracket offers an insightful precedent that can be applied to Miami's situation. Memphis would not have been an at-large team in the 2025 NCAA Tournament if the selection committee only looked at predictive metrics. The Tigers averaged out at 53rd in BPI, Torvik and KenPom, which are the three predictive metrics used by the committee. But the Tigers landed as a No. 5 seed. How? Because they averaged out at 17th in results-based metrics.
Miami can be looked at in the same way. The RedHawks are around 90th in predictive metrics. While that suggests they will be a significant betting underdog in the Big Dance, their results-based metrics remain firmly in at-large territory. With a No. 38 Wins Above Bubble ranking (entering Saturday's action) and a results-based metric average of 39.7 (entering Saturday's action), this team may actually be in the field with a little room to spare.
Selection is typically tied to your results and what you've accomplished. Miami -- despite having no Quad 1 victories -- picked up enough incremental gains in results-based metrics to be recognized as an at-large caliber team. That's what an undefeated regular season will do. The Memphis comparison isn't perfect since the 2025 Tigers had six Quad 1 wins and Miami has none. But we're not talking about a single-digit seed here for Miami. It's a weak bubble, and the RedHawks are in great shape to make the field and avoid the First Four.
Chip Patterson
I don't root for teams to hit Key Performance Indicators, and I don't enjoy sports looking for optimization and year-over-year growth. The TI-83 mindset has infected our celebration of winning and promoted pathways for losers to get more inclusion in championship contention. Keeping Miami (Ohio) out of the tournament, or even sending the RedHawks to Dayton as one of the last four teams into the field of 68 would be handing down a seeding punishment to one of the winningest teams in America.
"Quality losses" are the invention of marks who lose at the high-rollers table, and the NCAA Tournament inherently does not have a format that requires the highest power-rated teams to provide the highest levels of competition. March is for winners, and winning should not be punished in favor of teams that have failed to emerge victorious at a coin-flip clip.
Isaac Trotter
If the committee used North Carolina's Wins Above Bubble rating to explain why the Tar Heels made the Big Dance over West Virginia last year, it needs to remain consistent this time around. Miami University sits 38th in WAB. That's very much worthy of a bid. It isn't complicated or much of a controversy. I think the RedHawks are closer to a lock than the cut-line. The committee would have egg on its face if Miami is left out and look awfully disingenuous.
Cameron Salerno
I'm going to feel like the bad guy here because Miami has been the best story in college basketball this season. Going undefeated in the regular season is a huge accomplishment that should be celebrated. Furthermore, the NCAA Tournament is built on Cinderella stories like Miami, so they deserve to be in the field. However, Miami is going to benefit from a historically bad bubble this season. If there are bid thieves, Miami might be one of the "Last Four In," which would mean a trip to Dayton and the First Four.
If Miami won just one game in the MAC Tournament, they would've been a lock to avoid the First Four altogether, in my opinion. But after suffering a Quad 3 loss to UMass, the door is unfortunately open for the committee to send them to Dayton. Is it right? No. Is it fair? Probably not. But that's the unfortunate reality. Again, the bubble isn't great this year, so there still is a strong case that Miami avoids the first two days of the tournament entirely. But I wouldn't be surprised if on Selection Sunday, Miami ends up being one of the "Last Four In."
