Michigan vs. Michigan State odds, prediction: 2026 college basketball picks for March 8 from proven model

One of the top college basketball games of the year unfolds on the final day of the regular season as the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines host the No. 8 Michigan State Spartans. Michigan is 28-2 (18-1 Big Ten) and has locked down the top seed in the Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans (25-5, 15-4), meanwhile, can clinch a sole second-place finish in the conference if they can spring the upset. Michigan won and covered in East Lansing when these teams met on Jan. 30 of this year. 

Tipoff from the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Mich., is set for 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. The Wolverines are 9.5-point favorites in the latest Michigan vs. Michigan State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 151.5. Before making any Michigan State vs. Michigan picks, check out the men's college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered Week 18 on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 23-17 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.    

Now, the model has simulated Michigan vs. Michigan State 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men's college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for Michigan State vs. Michigan:

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Top Michigan vs. Michigan State predictions

SportsLine's model is going Under on the total (151.5 points). These teams have both trended to the Under this season. Michigan has a 64% Under rate, while Michigan State is at 57%. Michigan's offense has been a bit slower in recent weeks as the Wolverines have only cleared 71 points one time in their past three games. 

This time around, the model is projecting that no player scores more than 17 points in the simulations. The teams combine for 149 points as the Under hits 54% of the time. 

How to make Michigan State vs. Michigan picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Michigan State vs. Michigan, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.