Michigan vs. Wisconsin prediction, pick, odds, spread: Wolverines' undefeated record on the line vs. Badgers
Inside the Xs and Os of No. 2 Michigan's battle with Wisconsin on CBS
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3 min read
After 10 consecutive runaway victories, Michigan finally looked human in Tuesday's 74-72 grinder win over Big Ten cellar-dweller Penn State. Dusty May's No. 2-ranked Wolverines exited Happy Valley with a blemish-free record, but a helpful reminder that conference play is different.
Wisconsin skitters into Ann Arbor on Saturday to try and do what no one has done: push the Wolverines at Crisler. Michigan has played seven games at home this season. Here's how they have gone:
- 43-point win over Oakland.
- 25-point win over Middle Tennessee.
- 41-point win over Rutgers.
- 28-point win over Villanova.
- 52-point win over La Salle.
- 41-point win over McNeese.
- 30-point win over USC.
Pure, raw dominance.
Where to watch Michigan vs. Wisconsin live
Date: Saturday, Jan. 10 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center -- Ann Arbor, Michigan
TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App
Streaming on Paramount+ Premium
Michigan vs. Wisconsin: Need to know
Will Wisconsin slow down this Michigan transition attack? Historically, Wisconsin has been terrific at limiting transition buckets under the Bo Ryan-Greg Gard braintrust. That hasn't been the case this year. The Badgers gave up 16 transition points to UCLA, 26 to Marquette and even 17 to Ball State. Now, they get to face arguably the best transition offense in all of college basketball. Michigan has scored 17 or more transition points in 12 of 14 games this year. The push-ahead passes and precise ball movement form a cheat code. If Michigan cracks 17+ transition points again, Wisconsin is in hot water.
John Blackwell against Michigan's switches: Michigan has built a terrific defensive team because it has so many defenders who are up to the challenge of shadowing stars. May has felt comfortable instituting a switch-heavy defense because Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson, Elliot Cadeau, Roddy Gayle, Nimari Burnett and so many others are so comfortable defending on the perimeter. Blackwell is one of the premier scorers in the Big Ten, but even though the counting stats look sizzling (17.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists), he hasn't been humming at the level many expected when John Tonje departed. Blackwell is shooting just 23% (7-for-30) from downtown during four Big Ten games. You know he won't stay in the slump for much longer, and Michigan sure doesn't want to feel the wrath of a Blackwell eruption. The 6-4, 203-pound guard is so big, strong and adept at drawing fouls when he can reject screens and get downhill, so each perimeter defender will have their hands full. The good thing for Michigan is they have a cavalry of different options to throw at Blackwell.
It's Winter time: Nolan Winter is not Wisconsin's best player, but he may be the most important. Against top-100 teams, Wisconsin has an abhorrent -49.8 net rating when Winter is not in the game, per hoop-explorer. The offense gets way worse. The defense drops off the stratosphere. The 7-foot, 235-pound junior can be a real weapon in this game with his pick-and-pop prowess and mobility. Michigan's front line is overwhelming, and Wisconsin has little shot to hold serve if Winter can't be a factor.
Michigan vs. Wisconsin prediction, picks
You need excellent individual guard play to hang with Michigan because it does such a good job of shrinking the floor and forcing teams to play low-value, isolation basketball. Wisconsin can do that. Nick Boyd and Blackwell are both comfortable one-on-one shot-creators who will need to have major showings to stay in touch on the road. The Badgers have been battered by physical teams like Villanova, Purdue, TCU and BYU, but they punched back earlier this week with an eight-point win over UCLA and showed a bit more vinegar.
Michigan has been an all-time dominant team so far, but it could be a touch overvalued in the market right now. You just don't see a ton of 20-point blowouts in Big Ten play over the past few seasons. This league is too well-scouted and tendencies are scrutinized. I think the Badgers can unequivocally hang in this one because their guard play can be dynamic. Pick: Wisconsin +19.5
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