NCAA bracket 2026: Best March Madness seed upsets to target based on previous trends

It's the age-old question you ask yourself over and over and over again as you fill out your NCAA Tournament bracket: Where are the upsets coming from?

Picking upsets is fun. Everyone loves Cinderella. No one ever rooted for Goliath against David unless you either 1) are actually a fan/alumnus of Goliath University or 2) have a lot riding on Goliath University in your bracket. And even then, sometimes, you have to admit you love the underdog's story.

Picking upsets is also nerve-wracking. How much mid-major basketball did you actually watch this year? Are you picking based on the five minutes you watched in their conference tournament? Following the experts? Liking their mascot? Hitting the upset is fun. The I-told-you-so feeling is fleeting, and I encourage you to embrace it. After all, March Madness bracket pools are fun. They're something everyone can rally around, die-hard sports fan, casual fan or "My friend's aunt's cat sitter went there, so I'm picking them" strategist. You have to enjoy the wins.

Correctly called upsets lead to winning brackets. Playing it safe leads to safe brackets. As I wrote last year, "We're not here to have a 'pretty good bracket.' No one's ever gloated about a 10th-place finish in their bracket pool. We're here to win."

But how many upsets should we pick? That's why we're here to help. Let's start with the history. Since the 1985 expansion to 64 teams, here's what the seed-by-seed First Round matchups look like.

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Last year, two (9) seeds, two (10) seeds and two (12) seeds won in the First Round, and we also got one 11-over-6 upset. So knowing these upsets do happen -- and how often they occur -- is the first step.

The second step is actually getting them right. And for that, we're running through our favorite seed upset pick on every line.

(9) Utah State Aggies

First-round opponent: (8) Villanova Wildcats

The Mountain West's climb in the men's college basketball hierarchy hit a bit of a dip this year, with the conference only earning one bid -- Utah State's automatic bid as conference tournament champions -- after getting at least four bids each of the past four years. But don't take that to mean the Aggies should be grouped in with all the other single-bid leagues.

Jerrod Calhoun's bunch went 28-6, beat VCU in the nonconference slate and boat raced the Mountain West Tournament, winning all three games by double digits. Conference player of the year Mason Falslev took another step forward, upping his percentages from 3 (38% to 41%), from 2 (55% to 56%) and from the free throw line (58% to 76%). That last category is important because Falslev got to the line a lot this season -- his 104 makes were more than his first two years (103) combined.

But it's really senior guard MJ Collins Jr. who makes this year's iteration of the Aggies feel a bit different. He's scored 20-plus points in three of his last four games, and his jump to 35% from 3 has been massive; he was previously below 30% for his career.

The Aggies can space you out and then get to the basket; they averaged 1.28 points per possession at the rim -- a top-30 rank nationally. Outside of Duke Brennan, Villanova doesn't have much rim protection; the Wildcats were 341st in block rate this season.

Long story short, the Aggies have experience, guard play and depth, and they can score in a lot of ways.

(10) Missouri Tigers

First-round opponent: (7) Miami Hurricanes

Missouri can be a frustrating watch. The Tigers don't shoot the ball particularly well, don't take care of the ball particularly well and can be a bit stagnant.

And yet this team is absolutely relentless. Now a senior, Mark Mitchell is the fully formed version of what appeared possible when he was a blue-chip recruit headed to Duke. He shoots a ton of free throws, attacks the basket (and opposing defenders) with abandon and crashes the offensive boards hard. His battle with Malik Reneau will be a fun one to watch. Mitchell's teammates often follow his lead; TO Barrett is another downhill driver whose role increased significantly over the second half of the season. And, if needed, the Tigers can squeeze some shooting out of Jacob Crews (45% from 3), Trent Pierce (40%) and Jayden Stone (38%).

Missouri's defense can be inconsistent, too, but Dennis Gates' team has the length and strength to match Miami's rim attackers; the Hurricanes take about half of their shots at the rim, the eighth-highest rate in D-I, but Missouri does decently defending that area.

Elsewhere on the (10) seed line, give Texas A&M over Saint Mary's a good look.

(11) SMU Mustangs

First Four opponent: (11) Miami (Ohio) RedHawks | First-round opponent: (6) Tennessee Volunteers

The First Four tends to produce at least one team that wins multiple games, and this year, I'm going with SMU. Here's why.

If you're looking for a second (11) seed -- and you should at least consider it, considering (11) seeds are 31-29 against (6) seeds since 2010, give VCU a gander. The Rams have lost once since mid-January, everyone in their rotation can shoot it from the perimeter, and they get to the free-throw line a ton. North Carolina is without star freshman Caleb Wilson and has very much missed him.

(12) Northern Iowa Panthers

First-round opponent: (5) St. John's Red Storm

Listen, I get it. You think I'm crazy going against Rick Pitino and a team that just won the Big East Tournament. Fine. Call me crazy. Maybe I am.

Northern Iowa just won four games in four days to win the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Ben Jacobson has authored several March wins, including a Sweet 16 run in 2010. He's a legend in Cedar Falls. The Panthers play slow -- 363rd nationally in pace -- and generally take care of the ball well. They can throw several different defenders at Big East Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor. Point guard Trey Campbell heated up from 3 late in the season after a rough stretch from distance during conference play. The offense can be ugly, but the defense is among the nation's better units.

There have been multiple 12-5 upsets in three of the past four years. It's not my favorite crop of (12) seeds this year, but consider Akron over Texas Tech, too.

(13) Hofstra Pride

First-round opponent: (4) Alabama Crimson Tide

You've probably heard a lot about the Pride, and you're probably going to hear some more. The elephant in the room is that Alabama guard Aden Holloway was arrested on felony drug possession charges and is not with the team. He scores 16.8 points per game and shoots 44% from 3. He's not expected to play, and his loss would be a considerable one.

But let's not forget that Hofstra got here on its own merits and can pull off an upset on its own merits, too. Guards Cruz Davis (20.2 PPG) and Preston Edmead (15.9) both shoot it well from 3, and we love explosive guards in March. Overall, Hofstra shoots a solid 37% from beyond the 3-point line. Speedy Claxton's group earned several wins over Tournament teams in the nonconference portion of the season, beat ACC teams Pittsburgh and Syracuse and gave UCF a run for its money.

(14) North Dakota State Bison

First-round opponent: (3) Michigan State Spartans

The easiest way to envision this shocker is a simple math equation. In conference play, North Dakota State drilled 39% of its 3-pointers. The Bison have five different players who shoot at least 37% from deep on reasonable volume. They also have four players who average double-digit points. Damari Wheeler-Thomas, Trevian Carson, Andy Stefonowicz and Tay Smith make up a solid backcourt, and Treyson Anderson can stretch the defense as a big man.

Obviously, when you're this far down in the bracket, you're looking for something -- (14) seeds are 2-30 against (3) seeds over the past six tournaments -- but shooting is a good "something" to have.

(15) Idaho Vandals

First-round opponent: (2) Houston Cougars

There wasn't a 15-over-2 upset in either of the past two NCAA Tournaments, and it's unlikely there will be one here. But let's give Idaho more than a passing glance. The Vandals shoot a lot of 3s, have a balanced scoring attack and clear the defensive boards well. Houston's been a bit more up-and-down than previous Kelvin Sampson outfits, and the Cougars shoot a ton of jumpers and don't get to the rim much. Never say never.

(16) Siena Saints

First-round opponent: (1) Duke Blue Devils

Is anyone really a threat to join UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson? No. But we also never thought a (16) seed would beat a (1) seed in general until it happened ... and then it happened again. Siena guard Gavin Doty averages 17.9 points per game and gets to the free-throw line a ton; he shoots 85% from the stripe, too. The status of Duke big man Patrick Ngongba remains up in the air. Are we saying it's going to happen? No. Are we saying if these teams played 100 times, Siena would win once? Ehhhhh ... still probably not. But maybe!